Apparently Wall Street is having second thoughts about how wonderful another four years of Donald Trump will be:
The Trump rally was never much of a rally in the first place, but it's all gone now. On the other hand, Bitcoin is staying strong:
Wall Street might be having second thoughts, but the crypto bros aren't. They still plan to rock and roll with their buddy Donald.
I remember thinking Crypto wasn't going to go away as long as it had a core crowd of true believers continually willing to hype it and put money into it (including hype by dubious or illegal means). That includes some big investors - if you wonder why Andreesen is so Trumpish now, part of it is because his VC firm is sitting on billions in cryptocurrency that they need to dump on the federal government at a premium ("National Cryptocurrency Reserve").
I remember when Trump derided crypto as a scam. I guess now he's figured out how to get in on the action...
Paging Mr. Ponzi. Is there a Ponzi in the house?
Crypto also won't go away as long as it's such a great way to launder and move money around as anonymously as possible.
The people who have bid bitcoin up are not the ones who actually use it. Crypto is one of the things that could have a bad crash before too long. Financial crashes are one of the most common causes of the worst recessions, although Trump may be inventing new ways to cause recessions.
Unless mainline financial/insurance companies are more invested in crypto than I think, I don’t see that even a general crash in crypto would precipitate a financial crisis. Gold can fluctuate a lot without much impact because goldbugs don’t work at investment funds/banks/insurers.
Are you saying the markets don't like chaos? I'm constantly reminded of that saying, "Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true!”
Can you say Bubblicious?
Not a coincidence that the market surge reversed itself when Trump started revealing his nutty cabinet picks.
Up until he started naming his picks, folks could tell themselves he wasn’t serious about his stated agenda, that it was a negotiating ploy, campaign rhetoric, “ owning the libs”, crazy talk, or some sort of 17 dimensional chess . He’s serious about driving the country into ruin, and he has Congress and the Supreme Court on his side.
It’s not that he’s deliberately trying to drive the country into ruin, it’s just a byproduct of his psychopathologies, which he is too stupid to foresee.
Have you looked at bond prices lately?
https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/summary?s=US10YT
Bond holders tend to be dour, conservative investors - just the opposite of crypto bros. Nice bookends to the markets.
Oh, nice find!
Not to be too much of an annoying pedant, but doesn't that chart illustrate bond yields instead of prices? Anyway, the point is correct. The market is showing some doubt about Trump's coming "great economy."
Broaden your timeframe and it doesn't look all that unusual. It's close to the average over the last 18 months, which was, itself, quite high. And yes, that's yields. Stock prices up, bond prices down - might be a good time to adjust your ratio.
Point taken, though in the interest of even more pedantry, may I say that 10-year treasuries are technically "notes" (though people call 'em bonds all the time)?
Treasuries
< 1 year = bills
2, 3, 5, 7, 10 years = notes
20, 30 years = bonds
1/4 to 3 = gary us bonds
Then there's mortgages, which are not treasuries, with rates going up too. Dean Baker says that Trump's fault.
If Congress enacts even part of Trump's nutty economic agenda, the result will be a recession worse than 2008, both in severity and in duration, combined with considerable inflation. I expect that if I can see it, the more objective Wall Streeters can see it too..
Most of his economic agenda (if you can call it that) is punitive tarrifs on countries and industries he doesn't like. Congress has no role in tarrifs, but I guess they'll cut income taxes on business and the wealthy since the beautiful tarrifs will replace all that revenue.
Anyone with half a brain can see that's a not so subtle way to get the general public to pay some of what rich people are currently paying in taxes. MAGAs basically chose an agenda that will allow them to hand more of their money to billionaires. I mean, if the alternative was a black lady with an ethnic sounding name, the choice was easy, amirite?
It's genuinely hard to see how we get through this four years without damaging the entire world order. I think a lot of people are going to learn that fox news is not real life. You can LARP this shit at rallies all you want, but when it gets real, people are gonna get hurt badly. I honestly hope I'm wrong, but with these cabinet appointments, it's hard to be optimistic.
You have to go back to Gerald Ford to find a Republican President who did not have a recession on his watch. Both two-term presidents had two. So just based on past performance, you'd have to expect a recession. It's just a matter of when.
Fun fact: The last Democratic President to have a recession start on his watch was Harry Truman.
Did you adjust for inflation?
Just another example of where you should NOT always adjust for inflation.
Related news: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/souring-p-500-profit-outlook-140000247.html
Isn't this premature given other blips in the trend? Trump may well destroy the economy but if history is a guide, Biden and the left will get the blame and the MAGAbillies will buy it.
Meantime, he has the power to remake the markets into whatever he wants and the power to determine what gets reported through the government and press channels. I am sure that Musk, Andreesen, and others will get their money's worth.