If it's possible to know less than zero about something, that's my knowledge of the Wagner Group insurrection/coup taking place in Russia right now. It's hard to say if there's anyone to root for here, since on one side we have Vladimir Putin, a thug who started a huge, unprovoked war with Ukraine, complete with rapes, indiscriminate bombings, civilian slaughter, and a myriad of other war crimes. On the other side we have Yevgeny Prigozhin, who's little more than an unpolished version of Putin as head of the brutal Wagner mercenary group
"What they're really known for, frankly, at this point, is atrocities," said [Jessica Davis, president of Insight Threat Intelligence]. "They've committed a number of atrocities in the Central African Republic in 2018 and 2021, and more recently in Mali. "So while they are a private military corporation or a mercenary group, they're really, at this point, known for killing civilians and committing atrocities and war crimes."
Prigozhin used to be close to Putin, and Wagner's army roamed all over the world earning money for the Putin regime. Wagner's troops trained hand-in-hand with Soviet troops and played a leading role in the initial invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin later called the invasion a mistake and became increasingly bitter over his treatment during the grueling and destructive battle for Bakhmut in the central Donbas, claiming that his men had been shelled by Russian troops.
As for what's happening right now on the ground, information is sparse. But I can at least show you a map of Wagner's alleged progress over the past few days, starting in southern Ukraine and heading toward Moscow:
Here's a Google Map version that's a little more legible:
Can this be true? There have been plenty of reports of the Wagner convoy heading north, but did they really make 400 miles in just a few days from Rostov-on-Don to Lipetsk? Are they invading in Teslas or something? And are the Russians bothering to put up any resistance at all?
In any case, if these maps are accurate it means Wagner could be on the outskirts of Moscow in just a few more days unless an actual Russian army shows up to stop him.
As for Putin, he gave a national TV address today. He called for the arrest of Prigozhin, which is obviously more easily said than done, but didn't offer any specifics about what he was going to do about the advance of the Wagner Group. However, aside from obvious anger over Prigozhin's betrayal, he seemed generally calm about the whole thing:
Putin’s full national address condemning the insurrection, with English-language subtitles. pic.twitter.com/i0sRCe3Dbw
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 24, 2023
There's much more about the coup elsewhere, but it's nearly impossible to assess its accuracy. At the moment, Wagner seems to be advancing unopposed and has made remarkable progress.
As for the war in Ukraine, who knows? Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, where all the combat has taken place over the past year, seem to be doing nothing, just prosecuting their fight and letting the Wagner folks leave without resistance. How this affects Ukraine's chances in the war is anyone's guess, but it can hardly be good news for Russia, can it?
Either Prigozhin's guys are cruising up the highway unconcerned about opposition or these are units they had propositioned up the road. The latter implies better planning than seems the case yesterday.
I would expect the regular military is thin between Rostov and Moscow. It'll get more interesting when they close on Moscow.
I wouldn't say Putin seems calm in that video. He's pulling out all the stops -- but also, somewhat surprisingly, admits that he's lost control of Rostov. Basically, he's telling his troops: you'd better not join these guys. I'd say that's a statement of final desperation.
Reports are that the group heading for Moscow started from Voronezh so they were only 250 miles away. My guess is Prigohzin has been planning this for a while and probably had people already set up along the route for intelligence and supplies. Most of the Russian army is busy in Ukraine and reacting quickly is difficult. It's still been less than 24 hours since it started.
It's been great watching the wingnuts on twitter twisting a knot in their own butts over this.
Their prevailing theories are that Prigozhin has 'been turned' by the CIA, and that what's gone wrong for the Russian army is wokeness.
One of the eternal rules of humanity, anything can be covered by the Cloak of Stupid.
Rufo speaks! It's wokeness wot done it!
Thank god the adults are in charge. Trump would be sending reinforcements to Putin.
So, Putin claims he’s sent Russian troops to Ukraine to eliminate a fascist threat to Russia, and ends up with Russian mercenary troops advancing on Moscow. Will those troops get closer than the Nazis did during the Great Patriotic War? Will the good citizens of Moscow turn-out (or be turned-out) to dig anti-tank ditches? …
>> but did they really make 400 miles in just a few days from Rostov-on-Don to Lipetsk?<<
Few days? Most of this stuff seems to have happened in the last 24 hours! Seems to me this has to be good for Ukraine and I hope they have the ability to take advantage of the situation quickly. They seem to have been taken off guard by the developments same as everyone else.
Only if they previously secured Supercharger stations along the way... Logistics matter at least as much as equipment.
400 miles in 24 hours is only 16 MPH
Seems doable if they really did just go, and no resistance popped up
You can track what's going on through all of the Telegram channels.
Alternatively, you can track it on birdsite if you follow Rob Lee, Trent Telenko, Neil Hauer, Shashank Joshi, Christo Grozev, "IgorGirkin" -- not the real Girkin, Dan Lamothe, Timothy Snyder, Michael Kofman, Smart Ukrainian Cat, Special Ukrainian Cat, and Oryx. They will repost and comment on 99% of everything that everyone is posting on Telegram.
The last thing Wagner and its proxy Grey Zone posted before Wagner started on their cannonball run, was references to the destruction of Valhalla regarding Wagner's Götterdämmerung.
Yes, they've made lighting progress in just 1 1/2 days. Why is this?
- Because they have logistics figured out. You may be looking at videos and pictures but you're blind to all of the fuel trucks, the palletized fuel containers, and the trucks carrying main battle tanks.
- As Oryx explains, Russia has lost well over 10,000 pieces of military equipment in Ukraine. What is left is either fresh out of the factory or being pulled out from mothballed fleet. How, exactly, is Moscow to allocate equipment when what they have remaining is mostly either already deployed or not yet deployable?
Finally, you're wrong about the timeline.
- Wagner is already inside Moscow Oblast. If this continues, they'll reach Red Square before Sunday morning.
- They have overwhelming firepower that Moscow police forces simply do not have. They have anti-aircraft radar and missiles and tons of manpads, having already shot down 6 aircraft.
The best outcome for most involved is Putin arresting Shoigu and Gerasimov and making it public. The best outcome for Ukraine is continued chaos that remains unresolved for days or weeks, splitting attention of RU forces.
You make a good point, their army is wrecked, we just don’t think of it that way.
I remember several years ago someone looked at the Russian nuclear silos and estimated that nearly half wouldn’t even fire, but the other half was still a lot of nukes.
It’s something people don’t get about the place, everything is F’d up and one well organized group, with resources, well, maybe.
Good moment to make Blackwater illegal.
To your excellent list of sources (and analysts), I would add Kamil Galeev, Julia Davis, Phillips P OBrien, and the most excellent Garry Kasparov.
Kasparov said "Don't wonder what will happen if Russia collapses. It already did! Years ago. It's not a state, it's a mafia front with factions fighting each other for money, resources, and power."
And no, this coup attempt is probably not a good thing for Russia.
Russian citizens seem to be entirely apathetic to whomever their rulers are. Maybe this is an inevitable result of being ruled by Mafia factions for so many years. When you refuse to allow other people to have any agency in their lives, then they aren't going to lift a finger to help you when you need help.
Unfortunately, I don't see any quick or easy way to change their attitudes into those of responsible citizens of a liberal democracy.
A coup is certainly not going to do it.
All good choices for additional people to track. The ones I listed were just the ones who'd been furiously reposting msgs from Telegram while adding insight into what was going on.
There's also Mark Hertling and Max Seddon.
Just making a point, not taking this literally.
If you’ve never been there, well, just imagine how bad our charging network is, then pick our worst network, whatever that is, then imagine it being still worse, and it won’t be as bad as what the Russians actually have. And that applies to pretty much everything there except their subway in Moscow, which was surprisingly nice, at least when I was there many, many years ago.
I would imagine that Wagner has one thing going for it, Prigozhin seems to at least talk about caring about his troops. True or not, who knows, and doubtful, but the corruption there is brutal and no one gives a F about anything, so minor F’s make him look saintly. Prigozhin was also at the front lines, and that counts, compared to the General’s who’ve spent their careers stealing from the army or the Oligarch’s whose only risk has been tall buildings in recent days.
Might be a few Oligarch’s who’ve decided they’d like to visit their 16th story penthouses again too.
It’ll be interesting to see if any soldiers do fight. I think most of them couldn’t give a bleep but somewhere some will have been paid enough so we’ll see what happens. But, I do think Wagner is going to be more loyal than the Russian army.
Very interesting times. And is the devil you know better than the other guy?
Keep an eye on what happens in Rostov, with Kadyrov forces heading to the city. It's not clear if they're there to confront Wagner or to talk. Kadyrov's forces are weak -- they're referred to as the TikTok force for a reason -- but even then, a battle will result in chaos in Rostov city center. Alternatively, what if they join forces?
This is a bloody circus. Ah, the hazards of letting your country be run by a billionaire, with only the experience of running the KGB on his resume. And because of his extreme isolation, surrounded only by yes-men, this guy Putin fancies himself a genius military leader. What could go wrong?
Well, I of course don't know. Except that the Ukrainians should be able to use this Russian "problem" to their advantage.
I see that Erdogan of Turkey has shouted out encouragement to Putin. Maybe they will come to his aid? It would certainly be in keeping with the "bloody circus" aspect of these events. A NATO country coming to the aid of Russia? Can a NATO member be expelled?
Prigozhin couldn’t have timed this better. Tactical nukes against both Wagner and Ukraine? God, I hope this prediction looks ridiculous by this time next week.
Shades of “Red Storm Rising”
Lukashenko claims that he has intervened, & Prigozhin has apparently declared that he has turned his forces around. Surely he doesn't suppose that he can trust Putin to not only not attack the Wagner troops again, but Prigozhin himself?
Would hate to see Putin going nuclear to kill Wagner & Ukrainian troops as soon as the former are back on Ukrainian soil.
A link; https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html
Russia gonna Russia.
Who knows?
Yes, he should avoid windows and ....underwear?
Not to mention tea.
So...it has ended?
Prigozhin's Telegram posted an audio message:
Seems like an odd choice here. Maybe there was quiet action to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov that has yet to be revealed? Otherwise, Prigozhin's legitimacy has been erased.
Considering Putin made some concrete statements early this morning (in the wee hours) all but directly calling Prigozhin a terrorist, how can he walk it all back w/o losing legitimacy of power?
Does the Russian Orthodox Church believe in redemption? That could be Putin’s “out” - that Prigozhin has had a conversion on the road to Moscow…
Praise the Lord! Jeebus came down to me and shone his light!
😂
This is the church that ruled pacifism is a heresy.
Something does seem to have happened to change him. He's evidently agreed to a ceasefire. Which will presumably give the Russian government forces time to regroup and prepare a counterattack. So either Prigozhin offensive has stalled out (in which case he's going to be dead soon) or he's had some kind of a conversion and trusts in Putin to treat him kindly (which is stupid beyond belief).
'according to the plan'?
Was is all a huge misdirection for something?
I read that more along the lines that he's saying he got what he wanted, which I interpret to mean that Shoigu and Gerasimov are on the way out.
Seems unlikely to change the trajectory of its war in Ukraine, though, given how the problems Russia faces are culturally systemic.
Shiogu was forcing private military groups to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense on July 1 effectively putting them under RoMOD control. Progohzin gets to keep his private little army, leaves Ukraine and heads to Africa where he can spend his remaining days destabilizing governments.
Like his hero, Mistah Kurtz.
Well, that was fun.
It seems Russia is in need of a few generals. Perhaps Tucker Carlson could apply for the job. He's well suited; ignorant, believes in fairly tales, and he's white. so much popcorn..
And now Prigozhin and Wagner are marching away from Moscow. Or not...