The latest JOLTS data is out, and it shows much the same as it did last month:
This only goes through May, but it does show a second month of a record high number of unfilled job openings. This bolsters the argument of those who think that stimulus payments and expanded UI benefits are keeping workers on the sidelines for a while even though plenty of jobs are available.
Personally, I don't find this worrisome. I've always figured that it would take a little while for the economy to settle down after it reopens, so a few months of supply chain readjustment, spot shortages, and job hunting are only to be expected. By the end of 2021 I expect that we'll be close to historically high levels of employment and historically low levels of unemployment. We just need a few more months for everything to shake out.
"By the end of 2020 "
I think this prognostication is about 12 months late?
Hindsight is fixated on 20/20 visions?-)
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. Best to play it safe.
Errrrr
5.9 million people were still on pua programs going into early July. Finally some movement downward. During June's sampling period, it was 6.6 million. Dems should have ended all programs July 4th. Stupid idiots.
Is it the objective of the Democratic party to prevent wage increases? If the benefits of low unemployment and GDP growth only go to the 1% is that a good thing?
Not sure how to compare this to historical data.
But a lag between looking for jobs and filling them seems normal. Finding child care still an issue--esp. when there are covid outbreaks at camps.
But they are not good jobs. And, perhaps, that is the point. People who lost their jobs could have been paid to stay. That was the point of the loans to small businesses. But it didn't work that way. So why should anyone go back to the crummy employers who treated them badly?
Plus... if they have kids they are about to get a nice payment for each one.
"The payment will be up to $300 per month for each qualifying child under age 6 and up to $250 per month for each qualifying child ages 6 to 17."
Every little bit helps.
Based on my own collected anecdata, a big source of return-to-work hesitancy isn't wanting to sit home on the dole (although perhaps some people are figuring that they'll wait for desperate employers to raise wages even more before looking for work again), but trouble finding childcare. Some people found that they could still make it work (esp. with xtra covid aid and expanded ui) financially with one partner staying home with the kids. Others would like to find a job, but in many parts of the country, child care is not available at pre-pandemic levels -- ironically, due in part to a lot of minimum-wage workers (= most childcare providers, home health aids, etc.) being reluctant to go back to work. I have to imagine too that a number of childcare workers, even if they're willing to go back to work, also don't want to be around a bunch of unvaccinated toddlers, esp. in parts of the country where people are still being stubborn jerks about getting vaccinated. So it's a vicious circle.
I'd add that the effects of the pandemic on child and adolescent mental health should be factored in as well, and there's no telling the extent. Many more kids have suffered from anxiety and depression.
Yea.
Childcare gets it from every angle.
Huge layoffs to backfill.
Out of business or almost out providers.
Really low wages to begin with.
Unvaccinated kids a bit scary to be around.
People not wanting their unvaccinated kids back in daycare so much.
The only thing they don't have is a business model that was being replaced anyway and got a big old push off the cliff (movies theatres, etc).
In my hometown of Milwaukee, there have always been phantom childcare centers. & the fake providers & their coconspirators at my office job in social services were making out like bandits from the graft & corruption.
I know, I know! We have exactly those problems in Chicago too. The scammers here are raking in billions of fraudulent dollars! Every week!
'This bolsters the argument of those who think that stimulus payments and expanded UI benefits are keeping workers on the sidelines for a while even though plenty of jobs are available.'
Even if that is not actually a primary factor....
Don't forget business owners being paid to do nothing. Worse than ui
"business owners"
not
"job creators"?
Three million unfilled jobs -- and you'd need to work three of them to stay above the poverty line. Many people are saying "no thanks." If the US had a free market, wages would rise to entice more workers...