The Washington Post informs us today that retail workers are quitting at a record pace these days. Why? The pandemic, of course: "In interviews with more than a dozen retail workers who recently left their jobs, nearly all said the pandemic introduced new strains to already challenging work: longer hours, understaffed stores, unruly customers and even pay cuts."
Maybe. But here's what the recent history of retail quits looks like:
As you can see, the rate of quits always rises during economic expansions, so it's no surprise that they're rising now. What's more, the series is fairly noisy, and the April numbers are in line with all the brief spikes over the past decade.
So what's going on? The passage I've highlighted below should be tattooed on every reporter's forehead:
“We’re seeing a wider understanding that these were never good jobs and they were never livable jobs,” said Rebecca Givan, a professor of labor studies and employment relations at Rutgers University....It is too soon to tell, she said, whether the latest exodus reflects a long-term shift away from retail work. Some employees, for example, may return to the industry once child care is more readily available and other pandemic-related challenges ease, but others are turning to industries where workers are in high demand.
It's too soon to tell! This is true of practically everything, and yet news outlets are bursting with stories about how the pandemic has changed everything.
Well, maybe it has, but a single month or two of data just as the economy is reopening is literally meaningless. It's going to take six months or so for everything to settle down, at which point we'll be able to take stock of labor power, goods shortages, evictions, economic growth, remote work, and everything else we're interested in.
In the meantime, for God's sake, don't pay attention to this crap. If retail quits keep spiking for six months, then we'll know something. If they fall back to their old trendline, we'll also know something. But a single spike in April? Spare me.
There are probably three factors in play:
1) The lack of a living wage cannot compete with other occupations that have one.
2) After cutting back expenses -- such as moving in with family -- one probably has less need for a shitty job, especially after the largess of the federal gov't to help keep people afloat.
3) Having moved in with family, most people probably had to move, making it less than economical and practical to go back to work at the same place. So, when the unemployment checks stopped and businesses started to reopen, people just called it quits.
If you want us, here, to stop paying attention theb maybe stop posting about it?
Of note, lumber prices are going down so there's one more data point that inflationary spikes are temporary. But of course too soon to tell 😉
Futures are going down to be sure -- https://bityl.co/7S3m -- but, those contracts don't actually come due until July 1. The previous contract period was May. Prices at retail won't go down for a couple of weeks. Likely, lots of builders already locked in most of the inventory at higher prices, so, still constrained by supply and prices might not drop all that much until the next contract expiration in September.
One of the most annoying things about the pandemic is how overconfident people have been about their conclusions (including me just to be fair). "COVID is a farce", "We'll be back to normal by Fall 2020", "Remote learning/working is good for everyone", "NYC is dead!!!". It's one thing for a company to make a forecast but I think people are overly sure about how things will pan out based on recent events (and social media doesn't help).
True, but on the consumer side is that the rise is going to atop.
Wow. How do I delete this comment? The mobile interface screwed me up.
Yes, everything is normal. 600,000 people died, but no one really cares. Time to move on.
Your neighbors have turned out to be out of their mind conspiracy nuts but it’s ok that they’ve enabled a political revolution which will end up stealing control of government. They won’t use it to oppress you at all.
Gee… I’m almost convinced myself.
😉
Sorry, this is what the media do all the time - make a big deal out of the latest months data release. I have pointed this out many times, and Kevin does it himself sometimes, although at other times he complains when others do it. The media are not going to stop - they have to put something in their headlines and chyrons.
Any prediction about how the economy is going to look when we still haven't even gotten to 50% vaccinated is as accurate as reading tea leaves.