Israel has added the US and Canada to its travel ban, and it seems likely that other countries are going to start doing the same in the face of the Omicron onslaught.
At the risk of sounding like an idiot, I don't get it. What's the point of all these bans? Omicron is already in every country and it's going to spread whether people travel or not. In fact, since proof of vaccination is required to travel, the people entering all these countries are probably safer than the average resident.
What's more, a grueling five-minute scan of Google suggests that epidemiologists pretty much agree about this. Generally speaking, a travel ban might slow down transmission in a region that hasn't been hit with a particular virus—which means the initial COVID travel bans in early 2020 might have done a little bit of good—but it doesn't do any good if the virus is already there. And in the case of COVID in December 2021, the virus is already everywhere.
So this is all just virus theater, and it's a huge pain in the ass for a lot of people. Why don't we knock off this nonsense and put our energy into stuff that actually has an effect?
Omicron is irrelevant. It's structure is more Rhinovirus in nature. The CDC cares little about it.
But the foreign press is obsessed with it.
"Countries with and without bans seem to have done about the same."
Great! Then hard-hit countries with travel bans improved to match those less hard hit!
Look, this issue is a hopeless mess of confounding variables and confusing cause and effect. The chart is useless.
Here in Washington state we got lucky. One of our most obnoxious Trumpers flew to El Salvador, probably to lobby for the Cambodian government, came down with Covid and couldn’t get back for treatment. He eventually chartered a medical flight to get to Florida, but it was too late.
Kevin
Would you fly, right now with MM on a plane direct from LAX to Jerusalem? Would you DARE take that chance given your immuno-compromised condition?
Even wearing a mask you are at risk.
For you. along with the tens of millions of other folks with diseases that compromise their immunity the danger is great.
I don't have a death wish for you, me or anyone else.
But nor do the Israeli's. Why take a chance of letting someone from the 3rd world country known as the U.S. come to Israel? For a few bucks of tourist dollars?
So a Mexican comes across the border illegally, and we throw him back because.............he might be a murderer. But that American carrying the weapon of COVID is supposed to be allowed unfettered access to Israeli's with pre-existing conditions?
Personally I think the airlines will suffer and cancel flights then claim hardship and bilk the government out of BILLIONS of COVID relief help. While the child tax credit of $300M over 10 years that somehow gets spent on drugs is languishing on somebody's houseboat?
Travel bans have never been tried in any meaningful way. But if we are going to allow the virus to spread unchecked throughout the world because we are unwilling to inconvenience a few thousand folks who want to go on African Safari or a beach vacation... then stop bothering people about masks and social distancing.
Short term travel restrictions focused on "hot spots" are kind of silly. A total ban on non-essential international travel is the only answer. It seems to be working in China.
Vog,
Kevin was focusing on a travel ban with respect to avoiding the risk of someone entering the country with covid . And not the risk of spreading covid due to the flight itself. That might be more relevant if talking about a more general travel ban or restriction, not an international travel ban . It is probably safer to travel by air from LA to Isreal and back today than to go from LA to NY. More covid now in NY.
And air travel really does appear to be quite safe with the air filters they have. We just have not seen many spreading events from planes given how many flights there are . The biggest risk in air travel probably is at the airport not in the plane . And likely as much or more risk driving somewhere as flying if you stop and eat at restaurants on the way.
And kevin did fly to Italy recently did he not . So I would guess his personal decision might be to fly to Israel if he had a good reason to do so.
I'm reminded of the rabbit situation in Australia. They've been a massive feral pest for more than a century, with hundreds of millions of the things wrecking pasture across the nation.
In Queensland, it's illegal to keep a house rabbit as a pet. In case they escape into the wild.
Kevin is saying that international travel bans are pointless and has a very good point, but only from one perspective. And his argument can also apply to things like making and other restrictions.
If the goal is to reduce total infections and " stop " the virus, then Kevin is absolutely correct that it is useless once the virus is already here. It is just too contagious. Once it gets here at all, it is going to eventually spread to enough people until natural immunity accumulates enough to reach herd immunity level so R drops below 1.0. So final number infected will be aboit the same. And then, as endemic, it will start spreading yet again once all that natural immunity wanes enough or weather changes bringing R above 1.0 again.
Travel restrictions, by reducing number of new cases coming in , can delay that and slow it down , but eventually get to the same number approx of total infections in the end ( or even more if you delay it enough so immunity from initial infections wanes before wave ends) .
And what Kevin will likely not say is that exactly the same thing can be said about masking and other restrictions. They will not end up reducing total infections and in some cases can increase them .
But that does not mean they are useless. If they simply delay and spread out the infections, i.e. flatten the curve , that can be a lot of help if, otherwise, the peak of the wave will overwhelm or even stress the health care system. I am guessing that omicron will be less virulent enough so that we will not really be overwhelmed ( so far I think that really only happened on large scale in NYC area in spring 2020). But we can easily be highly stressed and that increases the death per infection.
Plus vaccination and boosters can help . With omicron , it appears the current vaccine does little to stop infection itself and minimally helps prevent spread. But it still helps reduce death and sickness. And same is likely for natural immunity from prior covid infections like delta. To actually hit herd immunity for spread of omicron , we are going to need plenty of omicron natural immunity from an omicron infection. Maybe it evolved to get around immunity for original or delta ( from infection or vaccine) but no reason to think it evades immunity from an omicron infection.
Right now today, I would say international travel bans are pointless. Because the extra cases that might come in from abroad are swamped by the new infections from community spread already here. If it slows the spread at all, will not be noticeable. It could have reduced the spread more earlier, when there were so few domestic cases, but in reality, that window for action passsd before we acted ( which will almost always be true ). And, even if we acted as soon as we heard of first case , it would only slow the spread in the initial stages. Maybe it will take a few extra weeks , but it will eventually start spreading and the ban is useless when it starts to peak. If the point is to flatten the curve , that does no good . Peak is just as high , just a few weeks later .
Masking by contrast, even if benefit is minimal , works to somewhat slow spread at all points. So worthwhile masking and restrictions when cases might be nearing peak. Little point much before peak ( where we are now ) or after peak has passed. But still better to start masking restrictions today as it takes time to see shape of curve, get policies in place and have public comply. If you want effective restrictions in place in period before and at peak , need to start at first signs of rapid spread..
Restrictions should be in place today, Tomorrow, And for the next goddamn 2 years. The next variant will come from somewhere and want to spread all over the world. Don’t be a disease vector. Be part of the solution. Stay home.
And, in order to implement an international travel ban that might have been able to seriously delay covid originally ( i.e. China ban) , you need to do all of the following;
1) know about the threat in time to implement the ban before it gets largely established in your nation. A few random cases you might be able to control through rigorous contact tracing and quarantine. But once cases are appearing that no idea where got infected, too late .
With covid , blame China for withholding evidence so unlikely we knew enough in time to have a chance ( although I doubt we would have acted in time even if we did.
2) act BEFORE you can be sure that it is really needed . If you wait to get enough info to be sure , likely too late . But that means good chance you will be made to look foolish politically if it turns out to be a false alarm.
3) ban travel not just from the country that has the threat, but from any other country that does not also ban travel from that country. We banned travel from China but not from the European countries who allowed travel from China, so the virus could just come from there
4) harsh , but you have to include in the ban Americans who are overseas too or what is the point. At least unless you have a strict quarantine requirement.
5) and the travel ban has to be immediate and a surprise. So you cannot give anyone a chance to rush to travel here before the ban takes effect. Combine this with #1 above and means that the first indication the public gets of a serious threat is the surprise travel ban. If the public can even be wondering if you might ban travel, too late.
6) and silly to implement any sort of travel ban when you are still having illegal entry almost uncontrolled on your borders, especially if you are catching and releasing them untested. Unless you really have the ability to truly stop entry everywhere ( like maybe with a wall?) , stopping entry by plane travellers does little.
Was there any chance politically given what we would need to do to ever have an effective travel ban in the USA. No .
Note that the travel restrictions Australia and New Zealand imposed did meet many of the above conditions and were fairly effective..
Makes you wonder what China will do in February at the Winter Olympics.
No travel ban… you get this.
Around half of the people who attended an office Christmas party in Oslo, where only vaccinated employees were admitted, have tested positive for the coronavirus after one guest recently returned from South Africa was found to carry the new Omicron variant, local health authorities said on Friday.
One dumb ass goes to South Africa and the whole world stops.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/03/world/omicron-norway-christmas-party.html