Here's the latest YouGov test matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump:
I could have picked any other poll. They all look roughly the same. I want to point out two things:
- It's close!
- Only 81% of voters expressed an opinion. The other 19% said neither, or RFK Jr., or don't know.
This gets to the heart of why I'm not panicking over Biden's polling numbers. Not yet, anyway. I keep asking myself who those other 19% are eventually going to vote for, and I think the answer is: not Trump. More even than Biden, people know Trump. They've had eight years of loud, chaotic, everpresent Trump, and there are no fence-sitters anymore. If they aren't planning to vote for him now, they just aren't going to vote for him.
That doesn't mean Biden will get all their votes. But I suspect it means Trump will get only a little more as time goes by and most of the rest will end up voting for Biden. That's especially true of the young and Black voters who are currently claiming they won't vote for Biden.
I don't mean this to be a Pollyanna view of things. Biden has his problems, obviously. But this really is something of a unique race that's effectively between two incumbents, and I don't think a lot of the usual conventional wisdom means a lot.
Nor do I think the "vibecession" is going to hurt Biden very much. A good economy favors the incumbent not through the media, but simply because it makes people feel good. Polls show repeatedly that almost everyone thinks their own personal finances are fine, and that's going to help Biden.
Maybe I'm lost in my own personal bubble, but if I had to guess I'd say Biden wins the two-party vote by about 52-48, maybe even a little better—and the electoral college along with it. We'll see.
This pretty much captures my take on the state of the race. It still makes me nervous seeing it spelled out since the race should not be so close when one of the candidates used national secrets as his personal playthings and is currently in court insisting on his right to try to get FBI agents killed. But this seems to be a good account of where we are and where we are likely to go and why.
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I certainly hope that Biden does win. I expect him to win, but there are a lot of reasons why the popular vote doesn't always determine the winner.
I find it absolutely astounding that half the voters know exactly who Trump is, and that's exactly why they are voting for him.
I have a fantasy in which each and every Trump voter could be forced to live up close and personal with Trump for four years. The experience wouldn't change everyone's mind - after all, there are people out there who want to be killed and eaten, so you can find all variants of human preferences if you look - but it would significantly diminish Trump's fan base.
"I find it absolutely astounding that half the voters know exactly who Trump is, and that's exactly why they are voting for him."
I think it's because most people don't follow politics very closely, plus Americans tend to think all politicians are corrupt. So they see Trump, and he dupes and gaslights them into believing he is a semi-noble, crass ass-kicker who will go to DC and start smacking around all those corrupt politicians and bureaucrats. Unfortunately, this is what deep, American distrust in government officials has given us.
For your last paragraph, that sounds like what is going to happen when Trump replaces thousands of government workers with loyalists. Suddenly these people are getting told to do corrupt and sometimes illegal things. So when he orders his DOJ leadership team to prosecute and arrest his opponents, do they actually do it? Will they let Trump throw them under the bus? I think many will refuse. They will see his history of using people and then discarding them. For many, self-preservation instincts will kick in.
" So when he orders his DOJ leadership team to prosecute and arrest his opponents, do they actually do it?"
Yes.
Maybe not 100% of them, but enough to make "yes" the right answer.
A sitting senator holding gold bars is on trial and there is a good chance he could walk. Why? Because his behavior in the senate, the proof of his corrupt favor trading, CANT be brought up due to the speech and debate clause. If he walks he's already sworn to run again as an independent.
"They've had eight years of loud, chaotic, everpresent Trump, and there are no fence-sitters anymore."
Man, I wish I could believe this. I've seen too many "undecided voters" interviewed who say that they haven't made up their mind yet. Maybe they're lying but I'm not sure what would be in it for them to lie.
I couldn't begin to guess at how large the number is but there absolutely are people who genuinely don't follow the news and view Trump/Biden as any other election ("It doesn't matter who you vote for, all politicians are the same!").
It boggles the mind.
it's may. people aren't paying attention to the election or the news. a lot of people have forgotten who and what trump is. i've also read that polls like the nyt-sienna have put more weight on voters who have historically not voted. not in 2020, one of the highest turnouts in modern election history, and probably not in 2024. it's hard for me to believe that given a choice, people will act in a way that will give the presidency to trump.
Can anyone really be "undecided" with Trump?
Maybe some folks who want to get on tv interviewed as an "undecided" voter- yes. But actual undecided voters- no way
My take is that Biden knows how to win elections and Trump is clueless. In 1972, Biden win his senate seat as Nixon won his state by double digits. I grew up in Delaware and remember that in 1972 we were almost all Republicans. Yet Biden pulled it off.
Since then he's won another seven senate seats, two VP contests, and one POTUS contest.
Meanwhile, Trump has never even once won the popular vote in any election. And by doubling down on the crazy-pants dumpster-fire behavior is showing no signs of attempting to broaden his appeal.
I think you have this about right. Trump got about 46% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020. That's his ceiling and my guess is that he won't get even that much this time and like Perot in 1992 (though to much less extent) RFK Jr will take as many votes from Trump as he does from Biden. I also agree that slowly but surely our solid, albeit imperfect economy will turn to Biden's favor.
I think there are two reasons we liberals are so scared. First, the supposedly fair MSM is constantly reporting everything as bad news for Biden. The NY Times is
especially awful. Second, and more importantly, the idea that this mango head narcissist shitheel moron even has a chance is alarming beyond belief.
As a whole, the MSM wants Trump to win. He makes their jobs more interesting. Biden's plodding competence is just so BORING.
I'd guess at the corporate management level MSM wants trump to win, becaues it makes them money and they're insulated from the worst effects because they're rich. At the report/newroom level they mostly want him to lose because...well, all the reasons. But it's management who control what gets investigated and what gets published.
oh sure. the msm has no regard for the first amendment, the backbone of their industry. that's what you have to believe if you think that their tipping the scales for dozing donnie.
whatever else, there is self-interest involved in this election for media at all levels and all types, more than any other election in at least a century.
btw, i'd take a look at the list of newspapers that endorsed trump in either 2016 ro 2020. the list is extremely small.
"RFK Jr will take as many votes from Trump as he does from Biden."
I wish people would stop talking about RFK, and I wish even harder that the media would stop covering him. He's on the ballot in just seven states (UT, MI, CA, DE, OK, HI, and TX), and claims to have enough signatures to get on the ballot in just nine others (NH, NV, NC, ID, NE, IA, OH, NJ, and NY). Even if he won _all_ of those states (and good luck pulling both TX--where he trails Trump by 33 points--and CA, where he trails Biden by almost 40), that's just 229 EVs, which isn't enough to win.
There is zero path to victory for him with just six months to go, so there is zero reason to cover his "campaign." He's also not an issue-candidate, like Perot arguably was, so his campaign isn't even a stand-in for some sort of set of ideas or values--he's just a leathery weirdo exploiting a family name.
With RFK's stance on confederate monuments... I kind of want him to be on the ballot in more states. Siphoning off 10-20% of the Anti Vax vote or the "Yay for the confederacy" vote is far more likely to hurt Trump than Biden.
So for actual swing states... that's Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio.
I clearly hope Biden wins.
Unfortunately in this case, hope is not a plan and thus, despite Kevin's analysis, I remain very concerns with the swing state polling. IF the outcome of the current Trump trial is a hung jury, I fear Trump's lead will expand....
I very strongly hope Biden wins. Trump is awful in so many ways that it gets hard to keep track. Trump is a narcissistic sociopath who is a master at using lies and gaslighting to manipulate people into thinking he will somehow help them and the country.
Having said that, I think that Trump will win. Sure, in Biden vs Trump polls, they are about a point apart for the national popular vote. But in the swing states, Biden is behind in every state (per RCP):
Arizona: Trump +4.0
Georgia: Trump +4.8
Michigan: Trump +0.5
Nevada: Trump +5.4
North Carolina: Trump +4.8
Pennsylvania: Trump +2.3
Wisconsin: Trump +0.1
And it gets even worse if Kennedy stays in the race. Biden is 5 points behind Trump.
Biden just has too much ground to make up. In fact, to win the swing states, he’ll likely need to be 4 points ahead in the national popular vote (he beat Trump by 4.4 points in 2020).
I sure hope I’m wrong.
It all comes down to WI, MI and PA. The first two are basically tied and trending Dem, maybe the Palestinian factor in MI is not as bad as I feared or people just realized Trump would be significantly worse. PA is an enigma, basically Biden is a native son but he under performed last time, so he may well be behind there a point or two. However, the Philadelphia suburbs have been moving significantly Dem the last couple cycles and polling may not pick that up.
Indeed. Sigh. Another cycle of watching just a couple of states.
The problem is indeed that Trump's ceiling may be a "ceiling" but its completely baked in and its both a ceiling and a floor.
It is just so damn hard to swallow the fact that 70 million idiots will vote for this guy no matter what. But that's the reality. There really is very little to discuss, and absolutely zero to discuss with any Trump supporter.
If anything, anyone who would otherwise vote for Biden but who is even considering, in any fashion, not doing so scares the crap out of me.
This is a country that voted for Nixon (twice), Reagan (twice), failson W. Bush (twice).
It wouldn’t surprise me if we voted for Trump twice. We’re pretty good at putting vicious assholes in the White House.
I did not vote for Nison or Reagan or either Bush. I think all of them were bad Presidents. But it is a category error to compare them to Trump. Charlie Pierce had this right
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a23579738/donald-trump-mock-christine-blasey-ford-sexual-assault/
It all comes down to WI, MI and PA.
More likely it all comes down to WI, AZ and GA. Those were the three closest states from 2020. A shift of a mere (quoting from memory) 60K or so votes could flip all three, which means Trump wins if nothing else changes. But Joe could lose two of those three and still win the Electoral College.
I hope you're wrong, too. One reason you might be is you're using RCP's numbers which have an intentional Republican bias.
RCP final average of polls in 2016 and 2020 lined up well with actual election results.
"... In fact, to win the swing states, he’ll likely need to be 4 points ahead in the national popular vote (he beat Trump by 4.4 points in 2020). .."
And if you shift .2% from Biden to Trump in 2020 who wins?
I’m with Kevin on this. I don’t see any way Trump does better and I know Biden will. In OK I don’t see as many Trump signs this time and even my MAGA brother is sitting this one out. I think we will take house and maybe Senate if our side is pissed off enough. Hell even OKC will probably turn blue this time.
However the wild cards are Bibi Netanyahu and Putin. They are the Comey/Reagan (hostage release)/Swift boat worries in this election.
Health event for Biden is another possible issue (and on th epositive side, health event for Trump is also plausible).
Or more simply, polls involving registered voters is shit.
Let's be clear: If you want to know the opinion of the country you pick everyone including non-registered voters, but if you want signals of prognostications of an election, you're not going to get anything useful until pollsters switch to likely voters.
The Republicans also devote effort to other negative activities, such as not giving credit to those who protected them from trump's J6 mob. That's what we get when one of their leaders is ousted, replaced by another modest Christian who declared himself as having been annointrd by God.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/congress-fails-to-install-plaque-honoring-jan-6-police-officers/
I'm basically in the same camp as Kevin. Trump has hit his ceiling. Just look at how MAGA courts undecided....they mock and blame them instead of expressing why they should support Trump. And even when they try to engage in dialogue it's never in good faith. Turnout could hand the election to Trump if progressives stay home but I'm beginning to think that is an over reaction
And finally, at long last, Rasmussen can go fuck themselves.
"Prominent pollster spreads Dominion voting machine misinformation
Rasmussen elevates misleading posts by a former Michigan lawmaker well known for spreading election fraud conspiracy theories."
Two words, Michiganders: "Dar Leaf"
https://wapo.st/4bD4vJE
That thing you're worried about (the future of global democracy)? It's not a big deal to me, Kevin Drum.
Kevin is not in fact worried about it. He thinks things are great on that front.
Well, I certainly hope Kevin is right. But even 52-48 would leave quite a chance that Trump wins the electoral vote. It almost happened in 2020.
I still regret that Biden is our candidate. With just about any other Democrat, it wouldn't have had to be this close. It would have been a massive Democratic year, what with the abortion issue and Trump's considerable unpopularity.
Instead, I'm reading articles that claim the down-ballot candidates are going to save Biden, instead of the other way around.
I suddenly think of a recent "Brewster Rockit" comic where he can't find the first-aid kit, and instead finds a "second-aid" kit. The only thing in this kit is the message, "Suck It Up".
"I still regret that Biden is our candidate. With just about any other Democrat, it wouldn't have had to be this close. It would have been a massive Democratic year,"
Indeed! So much so any other Democrat, that Zaphod doesn't even have to bother naming them, encouraging them to run, building a campaign, or any of the other things you have to do to run for president!
But don't worry--sure, constant bitching about how awful/old Biden (the most successful democratic president of the past 50 years) is might undermine his chances of being elected, but at least then, if he loses, Zaphod and others like him will have the consolation of telling us all he told us so!
If only Other Democrat had run for office!
"If only Other Democrat had run for office!"
Indeed. If one was the nominee, he or she would fundraise, create ads, and become well-known. THEN we would see how well they would do in the polls against Trump. Expecting someone to get high poll numbers without doing that is not how politics works, Aldous.
I don't think you have any room to talk about how politics works. I really don't.
Strongly reasoned argument! Except for the reasons.
This is what others are saying about your lack of reasoning.
Every Democrat that ran in 2020 raised money, ran ads, got in front of the public in campaign appearances and debates -- and Biden beat them all by the dirty trick of getting more primary and caucus votes from rank-and-file Democratic voters. Now he's the incumbent, and in American politics, incumbents get re-nominated. And usually re-elected.
I suspect that some of Biden's detractors are the same people who thought Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, despite the fact that she ran closely behind Barack Obama in the 2008 primary season; he is widely considered to be one of the best politicians of recent times.
"If one was the nominee, he or she would fundraise, create ads, and become well-known. THEN we would see how well they would do in the polls against Trump."
Meaning you not only have no effing clue what Other Democrat you prefer, you also have no idea whether said Other Democrat would do better than Actual Democrat. This isn't some stupid multiversal comic book movie you're watching, Zaphod--this is real life, and your little performance schtick of complaining that there is not some better (unarticulated) alternative--without recommending what that alternative would be and how/why it would be better--is stupid and tiresome.
You're like the snotty kid at a restaurant whining to the rest of the family that if only we'd gone to a different restaurant, maybe dinner would be better, and when asked which restaurant you'd prefer, you simply pout and say "we'll never know."
You're contributing nothing.
This is an almost universal omission in comments here and elsewhere by people who think Democrats should have dumped Biden -- very few trouble to name an actual Democrat they think would do better, and why. There are occasional mentions of Gavin Newsom, who would be endlessly pilloried by Fox News etc. for the French Laundry fête. Good luck against a candidate who rails against 'elites'.
"I still regret that Biden is our candidate. With just about any other Democrat, it wouldn't have had to be this close. It would have been a massive Democratic year, what with the abortion issue and Trump's considerable unpopularity. "
Just curious: which Democrat would have a wide margin over Trump, and what's your source for thinking so?
OK. Let me answer these questions asking about an alternative candidate this way.
If an 82 year old candidate who has zero charisma is the only credible candidate the Democrats can offer, and the is only one who would have a chance to beat Trump, then the Democratic Party is a failed political party. We might as well put it out of its misery.
Of course I don't believe that. Biden has used the power of incumbency to make it impossible for anyone to beat him in Democratic primaries. The only thing that would have allowed more electable candidates to emerge would have been for Biden to have decided not to run.
By the way, Biden did give a speech saying that about 50 other Democrats could defeat Trump. I believe him. Does Biden lie? No, that's the Republican candidate.
That dastardly Biden, using his incumbency to govern and make the case he should continue as president.
Which Democrat was willing to run against Kamala Harris?
None.
In my heart of hearts, I expect Biden thought he could win and check out at some point, making her the first woman president in history.
She’d do fine, of course. She was a badass prosecutor and a perfectly capable senator.
I still regret that Biden is our candidate. With just about any other Democrat, it wouldn't have had to be this close.
You're (as usual) massively underestimating the chances that, if Joe bowed out, Kamala Harris would become the nominee. It's highly likely she'd not be performing more strongly against Trump than Joe Biden is. Possibly she'd be behind by more. (I like and admire the Vice President. But I can read polls).
The DNC doesn't pick the nominee. Democratic base voters do. They tend to be both more centrist and more Black than the pundits championing people like Gretchen Whitmer and Mark Kelly. A sitting VP is practically the very definition of the "establishment." This fact and the reality that Harris is a woman of color suggest to me that Black Democrats would strongly support her candidacy.
What you've been pissing and moaning for is not "Joe should've stepped down so we can choose a different nominee." Rather, what you've been pissing and moaning for is "I think Joe should have stepped down so Democrats could choose the perfectly curated ticket I think would easily win."
It's a nonsensical exercise in mental masturbation. There's also zero way to know how one of your dream candidacies would be faring now. Plenty of people look good on paper. Ask Ron DeSantis.
Rather, what you've been pissing and moaning for is "I think Joe should have stepped down so Democrats could choose the perfectly curated ticket I think would easily win."
It's worse than that. If Zaphod here were flagging (flogging?) their personal theory that specific XYZ person would be a better candidate because of ABC reasons, they would be more benignly tedious (like those people who would natter on whenever Obama was doing something about how Clinton would have done it better because she was "a fighter" or some such). Similarly, if Zaphod were saying "Biden ought to do XYZ--that's what [Specific Other Democrat] would do!" that might at least be constructive.
Instead, Zaphod has no clue what actual flesh-and-blood people would be on that "perfectly curated ticket," and likely doesn't care. Zaphod's purpose with all of this is to slag Biden despite the fact that, at this point, it's either Biden or Trump.
The denial is strong on these pages.
Look, I hope Biden wins, but we are about to nominate a loser. Biden's polls are, and have been, miserable. At this point, Biden's only path to victory is Trump somehow self-destructing.
Yes, it really looks like it will be Biden vs. Trump. But I will admit that if Biden for some reason dropped out, even at this point, it would give me great hope.
Absent that, I will just Suck It Up.
The only path to victory is rejecting the guy who already beat Trump and wishing for a better candidate! Wishes are the plan! You cant go wrong with a hope and a dream! I CANT BELIEVE THAT EVERYONE ELSE ISNT ON BOARD WITH MY WISH STRATEGY!
Oh goodness, so silly.
The GOP has abandoned democracy, justifying any way to get T elected. What about states that will exclude federal oversight, and count votes with only GOP pol workers?
My brain tells me that I should stop thinking about this election very much. Doing it only fills me with anxiety about the potential catastrophe of a Trump win.
So the best course is to go along with Kevin's plausible theory and think about something else. Ain't nothing worrying is going to do to change things. And if worse comes to worse, I will let "Future Tango" deal with it.
Watch the RCP average starting about a week out. Thats probably your best (and only) predictor.
(In 2016, when I was driving home and heard that Virginia was too close to call, I knew that it was all over.)
I just had a look at the RCP average from 2012. Romney had slight leads in October ....
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2012/obama-vs-romney
It's all about the horse race. Every news outlet in the U.S. is trying to maximize clicks? Trump's ahead! Biden's ahead! Trump's ahead! Biden's ahead!
Well, yeah, for 40+ years.
Or more. Fishing for clicks on web pages seems to have made it worse, though.
With the candidates' FEC receipts for April posted last week, can we get a write-up about Trump's claims of hosting a record-breaking fundraising event in April?
Alternatively, I'd like to ask the news media: Why haven't you followed up to see if Trump's campaign was lying?
The Powers That Be seem to be pushing down on Biden and promoting Trump really hard, and still the polls are favoring Biden. Not to be pollyannish, but I’m hopeful for Biden and America this fall.
I’m not clear why people are so down on Biden. He’s a good man and makes good decisions. He surrounds himself smart, decent people. If you wanted someone else you should have spoken up during the primaries.
Actually, during the primaries I was very much in favor of Elizabeth Warren. But Biden is the nominee and now I am all in for Biden. 2028 will be a new race.
There are a surprising number of Americans—nearly half—who favor straight white male “Christian” supremacy.
Genius knows how to party,
Donald Trump Says He'll Stop All Electric Car Sales,
https://gizmodo.com/donald-trump-says-stop-electric-car-sales-1851503550
Won't that mean Big 3 contributions to Dem PACs?
We should live so long.
I count two previous US presidential elections that effectively involved two incumbents: 1888, when the out-of-office incumbent beat the in-office one, and 1912, when they both lost to a third candidate. I don't think either of these have much predictive value for 2024.
I'm in France and should stay out of this but I tend to agree with Zaphod above, though he took a lot of heat, but would put it differently. Trump voters will vote for Trump. Biden voters won't really vote for Biden but against Trump. Advantage Trump if there's a low turnout and I think there will be. The fear factor is a weak card. It's been overplayed here in France, too, and I don't know what the next elections will bring. I distrust polls when everything depends on fear of one candidate. How afraid, precisely? Enough to say so to a pollster but not enough to cast a ballot?
In short, I have no confidence at all Biden will win and wish there had been a different Dem candidate. That's crying over spilt milk but not entirely irrelevant. Biden's decision to run at his age showed hubris in my eyes. He also seems to take the Black vote for granted. Of the horrors of Gaza I've seen him mention just one: the one that killed five white World Central Kitchen volunteers. I think Blacks accepted him in 2020 because he served under Obama. But now he's on his own. Youth vote, similar dynamic. Obama was really popular but his coattails ain't there no more.
Biden voters won't really vote for Biden but against Trump. Advantage Trump if there's a low turnout and I think there will be.
This is 180% at odds with what the analysts suggest. And that's because the GOP is increasingly reliant on lower SES, lower trust, lower educated voters. They tend to be much less reliable in terms of voter turnout. This is in exact contrast to Democrats, who increasingly rely on university-educated, higher income voters who vote very reliably. We see spectacular evidence of this in midterm elections, which used to be a PIA for Democrats—but now are a Godsend.
I expect Democrats this year to run a viciously negative campaign in part out of a realization that they have little to fear from reduced turnout. It's ugly, but it's what the numbers tell us.