I see that Donald Trump has just been indicted for illegally conspiring to overturn the 2020 election. This means we're now up to three Trump indictments, with a fourth from Georgia almost certainly on its way soon. This really is unprecedented, but then again, Trump has engaged in an unprecedented amount of crime.
Will we end up sending a 77-year-old man to prison? That would be unusual. But as the saying goes, don't do the crime if you can't do the time. Nobody forced Trump to do any of this stuff.
A goodly number of our fellow citizens are 100% Trump cultists who don't mind any law he's ever broken.
How far will they go to put him back in office?
I am sure they will vote for Trump no matter what. There's just not enough of them to put him in office again.
Indeed the margins count.
More so the margins in specific geographies - States. Specifically, it is not "your fellow citizens" as lead commentator using fallacioius national thinking, but enough on the margins in the key close states.
That is where you will be fighting.
and it does seem likely there is enough of an acid bath to eat away Trump vote support in the key swing states, if the Democrats can restrain themselves from indulging in too much Academician-Profs-IntelloBohemianBourgeouis "woke" language in cultural areas - avoid communicating like the egghead intello dominated party it has become, and you will win. Close, but win.
Actually it's even worse than that. The message is that Biden is recklessly destroying our democracy by trumping up a bunch of bogus prosecutions against his likely opponent.
Obviously that's ridiculous because Trump is dead-to-rights guilty on all of these charges and, as a normal president. Biden has not been directly involved in any of the investigations at all, but that's the rationalization.
He is expecting to delay the trials until after the election, win the Presidency, pardon himself for the Federal crimes, threaten the Georgia State board of Pardons until they do what he wants, and then deal with NYC down the road.
He will TRY to delay the trails but the DC judge won't let him, Obama appointed judge in DC where so much of the you-know-what happened. This one will stick unless Chief Justice Roberts chickens out and gives Trump a get out of jail free card.
Even a non egregiously delayed trial is likely (though not certain, I guess) to take us beyond the election. It's long been clear to me we're out of runway to get him behind bars before the election, and I stand by that. There's an outside chance we could (just) get a conviction before the election, but it will be tight. And that hardly means he'll be behind bars in the ten weeks following that. The documents matter, for instance, isn't expected to reach jury selection before May or, so, of next year.
I fervently hope A) the economy holds up; B) there's no damaging third party ticket; C) and the overall controversy regarding Trump's alleged lawlessness hurts his candidacy.
But I continue to believe conviction/imprisonment itself isn't enough to save us: Trump could yet still return to the White House. The Constitution doesn't bar convicted felons from serving as the nation's chief executive, and, if push came to shove, I strongly suspect there are five SC votes to allow Trump to serve any sentence after he finished his term. (And needless to say Trump might well get away with pardoning himself.)
Sorry, but the right-wing billionaires are going to play the useful idiots of No Labels to win at least WI, AZ, and GA.
There is a 0% chance of any third party winning any states. But they could tip states to Trump.
I’m conscious that saying this might sound like hyperbole but if Trump had the nerve, he could probably arrange to have one of his more unhinged supporters assassinate the judge Remember that just tweeting out Obama’s DC address lead one such possible MAGA-killer to, admittedly, bumbling action. So she might not be the judge who ends up finishing the trial.
The moment that Trump is convicted of any of these indicted felonies, Biden should disband his Secret Service detail and give him a new one comprised entirely of Black and Latino agents. Be selective and get the ones who have most often flinched at the sound of gunshots.
Black and Latino agents.
FEMALE Black and Latino agents.
FIFY
TRANS female Black and Latino agents.
FIFY.
Who are unattractive and not his type.
I would like to see Congress vote to REVOKE trump's Secret Service protection. If he's convicted of conspiring and acting against the state, he doesn't deserve the protection that presidents, former presidents, and presidential candidates receive.
What does the law say? What kind of a vote would it take?
I have a dream.
Trump gets indicted by the Georgia DA and she refuses to delay the trial. Trump gets found guilty, pulls out of the race at the last moment. the GOP takes the runner up and puts he/she as their person and the GOP loses both houses in a big way.
Then, before the caucauphoney builds, Biden pardons Trump (and only Trump) due to his age. All the co-cospirators get sent to club FED.
The libs would go nuts, but the conservative talking heads would be left wondering just what the hell just happened?
It would be Jerry Ford on steroids!
Nixon’s pardon is a part of why Tump behaves as though he has complete impunity. Even if Trump is convicted, he’s unlikely to ever spend a day behind bars. A pardon would simply reinforce notions of the unaccountable elites and particularly that Republican presidents have the right to break the law without consequences.
Moreover, apart from owning the libs, what would pardoning Trump accomplish? Surely neither the gratitude of the Republican base nor impressing them with Biden’s magnanimity or humanity.
Mitch
Trump NOT going to prison is exactly the point. He could agree as part of the pardon to NEVER run for office again. That effectively silences him and he becomes a non-entity within the GOP. This would certainly drive him nuts.
I don't see either party trying to extract gratitude from the other, and never have.
I just see it as a way to move past Trump, finally
That blathering psycho is probably not even silent in his sleep.
What could possibly shut him up?
Saw somewhere the other day that he'd shot off 50 tweets in something like two hours.
Trump NOT going to prison is exactly the point. He could agree as part of the pardon to NEVER run for office again.
I think the idea you raise works mainly in the event of a plea deal: Trump agrees to plead guilty to one of the sundry charges in exchange for a non-carcereal sentence and probation, one of the terms of which is his promise not to run for office.
You can count on him to keep a promise.
What happens when he pleads guilty to some lesser thing, walks out of court and announces that he just said that to get out of it, he didn't actually mean it?
Unless you can shut him up he'll always be a menace.
You can count on him to keep a promise. What happens when he pleads guilty to some lesser thing, walks out of court and announces that he just said that to get out of it, he didn't actually mean it?
He violates the terms of his probation and goes to jail. That was the mechanism used against Agnew.
I don’t see any judge sending Trump. To prison under any circumstances. And the rise of Fox News and the potential for minority rule have changed the political landscape so that it is unlikely that Agnew would’ve plead guilty in the first place or felt any pressure to adhere to the terms of his plea deal.
If Trump already knows that he's not going to prison or suffer any real consequence from being convicted, why would he be willing to accept a pardon or do a deal to get one? And why would an extreme narcissist like Trump ever to willing to agree to anything in order to allow the country to "move past Trump?"
If Trump literally knows there's no chance of prison, he obviously has no incentive to make a deal. I don't think it's quite come to that, do you?
Yes, I do think that it’s unlikely almost beyond belief that Trump ends up in prison if he’s convicted. Basically the problem is that American presidents are seen as non-hereditary monarchs. And there’s a natural impulse to assume that the “shame” of being a convicted felon is punishment enough. But for a guy who sees the world through the eyes of a mafioso, there’s nothing to be ashamed of.
Even if she doesn't delay the trial there are two trials in front of that one. The GA trial probably wouldn't even begin until after the election.
Pardoning Trump would be a bad idea. Making a maximally horrible example of Trump would be to the unmixed benefit of the country in its effect on future presidents.
Here's something we can all agree on, even Donald. We need a way to tell the good guys from the bad guys.
Donald's way is to assume that anyone that does something he doesn't like is bad, and anyone that's against anyone he doesn't like is good.
Option 2 is to assume that anyone that adheres to the Golden Rule, do unto others as you would have others do unto you, is good, and anyone that adheres to the Lead Rule, do as I say and not as I do, is bad.
Option 3 is that there is not Option 3.
Yeah fk that guy.
"This has never happened before."
Agreed. It has been recognized that Don is currently uniquely situated.
Can we talk about the interesting stuff now?
I'll start:
- What everyone's over/under on a serious terrorist/assassination attempt on either government offices or specific pols?
- How long do you think it'll take some appeal to hit SCOTUS, where the serious fuckery will begin?
- At what precise point does McCarthy's caucus devolve into a circular firing squad?
There's reasons why so many feds want to continue full time telework. The Rocket Docket will ensure that SCOTUS will decide sooner rather than later Trump's fate.
The record says that SCOTUS does not love Trump. So far, they've summarily tossed every appeal he's brought and every case brought for his benefit (e.g. Paxton's idiot effort to sue Pennsylvania).
If Trump is counting on SCOTUS to save him, he may be in for a sad disappointment.
Nobody forced Trump to do any of this stuff.
Waddaya MEAN?! FIRST of all he NEVER did ANY of this, and SECOND if he DID do it it's cuz of all those Woke Libruls and what they're doing to AMERICA!!
Victimhood is a core value of the Cult. It feels righteous, it excuses any crime no matter how heinous, and it displays your loyalty.
Is there a good argument that Trump will plead guilty to some of this? Or is that nuts? Sure seems to be a good way to cut your attorney fees.
I myself would bet he pleads to the documents stuff and says “the Deep State made me do it!”
No. He NEVER admits he was wrong, in any way, ever. He will deny, deny, deny, and spin, spin, spin, even as he's stuffed into an orange jumpsuit and locked in a cage.
I would even argue that he CAN'T, that his pathology simply wouldn't permit it. It would be too damaging psychologically.
I get your point but I also think Trump is always quick to sell out his supporters when it’s in his interest.
I’m not sure “pleading guilty” equals “admitting he is wrong” as Trump will surely say “the deep state made me do it!”
He settled the fraud suit against Trump U, as an example
Well, per the news stories, his legal bills are being paid by PACs. As for the rest, just substitute “Deep State” for “bitch” and Trump will have simply appropriated the Barry Defense.
I don’t think that he can plead guilty because it might damage or even destroy the link with the members of his cult (of personality). Aside from the difficulty that Trump in admitting errors that he has as an extreme narcissist, it would probably be unacceptable to his cult for the authoritarian leader to plead guilty.
There’s also the question of whether being a former president and being old would justify a very unusual downward departure from the sentencing guidelines. Both of his federal indictments involve extremely serious crimes which have consistently resulted in significant jail time
I get what you say but doesn’t your second point - no jail time likely at his age - argue in favor of a guilty plea?
I don't see Trump pleading guilty because I don't think the leader of a cult can afford to do so without risking everything. And once you accept that the entire exercise is essentially pointless from his perspective since there's nothing bad that happens to him if he's convicted and his followers are paying his legal fees, I think Trump's really got powerful incentives to play the hand out.
Where I disagree with your analysis is on the point that as a cult leader Trump is constrained in what he can do. What I have observed is that Trump's narcissism takes the form of extreme lack of respect for his fans, i.e., he seems to think they'll follow him whatever he does (and he seems to think that with good reason, so far as I can see). For instance, he ran sorta left on economics but then did the usual GOP thing of cutting taxes for the rich (and explicitly broke the pledge to get rid of the carried interest nonsense, right?). But most importantly, and I think symbolically, his most important campaign slogan was "build the wall", yet he didn't bother to build the wall. That will always astonish me. I just don't see that Trump ever lets what's good for him in the short run be constrained by what his cult wants.
The problem is that Trump’s a “strongman” and pleading guilty is a sign of weakness which might shatter the illusion that he was a successful president. And most of his MAGA nutters see. To believe that he actually did build the wall.
My point is that if Trump knows he’s neither going to jail nor will be forced to put his hand in his pocket to pay his lawyers, he’s got no incentive to risk breaking the spell that binds the cultists to him. And there’s really nothing the government can offer him to make it worth his while to plead out.
Yes, good points.
Trump may have no choice BUT to plead guilty
Especially on the Georgia charges. Trump and his minions pissed off too many popular republican locals
On the federal indictments he delays as long as he can
I tuned in to a bit of Mark Levin saying that Jack Smith just destroyed democracy, should be in jail, etc.
"Conservative radio talkers are all kind of nuts, but Levin regularly distinguishes himself as a genuine lunatic." -- KD
Martha Stewart did it and so can Trump. Although I think he'd have a longer sentence, and he would not be able to get in good with other inmates by making cakes out of commissary cinnamon rolls and powdered hot chocolate.
bwa-hahahaha.
Fun fact: Jim Comey, who torpedoed Hillary Clinton's campaign days before the election, was the guy who pushed the prosecution of Martha Stewart, and ultimately put her behind bars.
From the indictment:
I suggest there may be multiple state-level indictments looping in Trump and his co-conspirators. Michigan has already moved forward on the fake electors w/ forgery conspiracy charges, and according to Smith's indictment, those directions came from the top.
Is that a quote from the indictment? New Mexico got left out.
Although why it was ever considered a viable "fake elector" candidate is beyond me. Five lousy EVs, a solid Democratic state government, right down to both houses of the legislature, an overwhelming loss by trump?
Maybe Eastman just wanted to get his home state involved? And Santa Fe is swarming with legislators and lobbyists, among them a good number of fellow Republicans.
It amazes me that Steve Pearce's name doesn't appear anywhere. He's long been a foam-at-the-mouth DC-level lying Republican and jumped on the maga train pretty much from day one.
Then again, he's also smart.
Yes. Page 22. On page 24 the indictment adds:
There's more there. I suggest reading it, starting from page 22, though. This part gets at the heart of the conspiracy coordination between Trump, co-conspirator no. 5, and the fake electors -- https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149/gov.uscourts.dcd.258149.1.0_1.pdf
Thanks! I'm slowly working through the indictment, even though it's well and clearly written.
Look for the podcast, "Prosecuting Trump". Normally, it's Mary McCord and Andrew Weissmann talking to each other. This last episode, it's Ali Velshi reading out loud the indictment.
Bonus: The previous episode McCord and Weissmann spoke with Judge Luttig about how he got involved in stopping the insurrection.
He has to be locked up for the good of humanity.
He's toxic waste.
Like where they locked up Grindelwald.
On January 6 I was so embarrassed for my country. Today I am so proud.
+ E. Jean Carroll defamation 2.0
and
New York Attorney General Letitia James' $250 million lawsuit claiming former President Donald Trump, two of his children and his company engaged in widespread fraud
and
Michael Cohen defamation trial (Trump is the plaintiff)
Trump won't ever go to prison, even when convicted.
Which is why he should receive home confinement as a fully reasonable punishment...
In his new 1500 sq. ft. home in Topeka, Kansas with the SS staked outside, or where ever they need to park the SUVs.
And then the rest of us move on.
I'm holding out for a firing squad. Yeah, I know it's unrealistic.
What would be almost as good would be if a lot of states decide he cannot appear on the ballot, either in the primaries or general election, because he "raised an insurrection" against the United States.
Your thinking accords with mine: Impoverish him. A 1500 ft^2 ranch house sounds about right. Make his ride a '92 Fiat, his barber Great Clips, his suits off-the-rack via Walmart.
In short, make him the Man of the People he pretends to be 😉