This kind of wonky analysis seems even more pointless than usual this year, but just for the record here's an estimate from the Penn Wharton Budget Model of how much each candidate's economic proposals will affect the national debt:
Trump's proposals blow up the debt by 5x more than Harris's. Here's how they affect income:
Again, no surprise. The Trump plan is steadily more generous the richer you are. Harris is most generous to the poor and reduces income slightly among the rich.
A note on the recent housekeeping change on this blog:
The images (ie the graphs) for this post are not loading for me. (I’m reading on an iPhone.) Anyone else having this issue?
Yes! I have the same problem.
Same here. The rotating photo in the banner looks fine, but the charts in the post aren't loading (Chrome browser).
How on God's green earth people still associate Republicans with "fiscal responsibility" is something I will never grok about the American electorate.
"Fiscal responsibility" simply means either "no spending on things I personally disapprove of" or "my tax bill goes down during their rule," with no regard for actual accounting or budgeting principles.
Similarly, "inflation" simply means either "any prices going up during their rule" or "prices not returning to an arbitrary point from my past," with no adjustment for what's happening outside the US borders (inflation here is lower than all our peers) nor adjustment for what's happening with one's income (I earned that cost-of-living increase in Social Security!).
A basic component of communication is all sides agreeing on what words mean. America is quickly losing that agreement that allows communication to exist.
Your first paragraph is a short synopsis why representative government always fails in the end. Human beings marry the universal imperative of life -- continue if it's in any way possible to do so and propagate your own kind -- to tool making and permanent record-keeping.
When the past is always present, resentment is inevitable, and any rules-based system becomes riddled with exceptions, favoritisms and cruelties.
We are Baboons with nuclear bombs and the ability to discharge them.
Same here. Firefox on Mac Airbook. 10:30 EST
same
Same here, although images in earlier posts do seem to load. Windows 11/Edge.
Same. Opera browser version: 112.0.5197.53
Replying to my own message: I can now see the graphs.
Replying to my own message: the post now works for me
I can't see the images in this post (laptop, Safari browser).
But I looked at the projections over at the Penn Wharton Budget Model link. Of course, it's not the absolute value of the national debt that matters, it's the debt/GDP ratio. I didn't see any GDP projections over the same time period.
Good point, Joel! Without knowing for sure that Trump's policies won't quintuple the size of the economy in the next decade, there's just no way to evaluate his tax plan resulting in a 5x debt increase relative to that of Harris.
I think we can say with some confidence that giving all the money to rich people isn't going to turbocharge economic growth.
It's probably also worth noting that writing budgets is the prerogative of Congress, not the White House, so much depends on which party controls Congress.
Here's my translation of project 2025: Congress, SCOTUS, the economy, crime, the constitution, the rule of law, and anything except DonOLD tRump becomes utterly irrelevant the moment he walks into the Oval Office.
It may be the prerogative of Congress, but the president's budget request usually forms the base for Congressional budgeting, especially if the same party controls Congress and the White House.
I'm having the same problem with the images - can't see them. Desktop PC, Chrome browser.
Same problem for me, laptop running Firefox in Windows 11, latest updates.
Actually, I should say that it's the two images in THIS post that appear blank. The lunchtime photo and posts below that are visible, as is the wide decorative photo at top.
No graphs or photo's for me on Safari.
No graph or chart on this post. I'm using Firefox on Mac OS 10.15.7. Everything worked before: images, charts, photos.
One new experience: I had to log in again - my login never was saved despite request to save info, which I do only on sites that don't have financial or other personal details. As I selected the login option, there was a message confirming that I am a human!
Charts aren't loading on my Galaxy S23, but likely due to high usage this month & slowdown until next data cycle.
The switch is appreciated, since slow activityon previous system was annoying but not worth complaining about, since you're footing the bill & don't have a paywall, so thanks!
Forgot to mention that pressing chart thumbnails (not the right word, I'm sure), the charts appear the same way KD'a photos do when clicked on to enlarge them.
Just a few minutes after posting this second comment, the charts had appeared!
Of course it blows up the debt. It's part of the plan to starve government of funds to pay for SSI, Medicare and Medicaid along with whatever other social safety net programs the Republicans can think of. At this point in history it's a given.
🎯
As Paul Krugman points out just this week, Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy and other economic policies are also likely to be inflationary, perhaps seriously so. That's a cost to those scraping by that Kevin should not omit. Unless, of course, it counts only when the incumbent is a Democrat and charges that the Democrat's policies were inflationary is in fact a lie.
If you look at the second chart it surely is difficult to see how Trump would accumulate $5.8 trillion in deficits over a decade if the maximum increase in ANYbody's income is only a bit more than 2.3%.
That's because chart #2 is only for meatspace "people". The "people" who REALLY rake it in are corporations, be they completely fictional or meatspace entities who have incorporated themselves.
The corporations do not have bars on chart 2.