I don't generally pay a lot of attention to weekly unemployment claims, but this week's numbers give me pause for thought:
The latest numbers are for the week ending last Saturday. They're hardly at a record high, but they did jump considerably. Are we already seeing the effects of Elon Musk's mass layoffs? If so, this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Yes.
The knock on effects will last years.
University towns, aka state schools, will also see large jumps in unemployment.
Infrastructure--no more.
Chip factories--sorry.
Warehouse jobs--the people ordering online were just let go.
It will also destroy our nation's capital since a large percentage of the federal workforec is in DC. And that area is HIGHLY dependent on govenment spening. So you'll see downstream effects such as closed resturants, coffee shops, bars, and other businesses.
And MD and VA...
But the GOP has so demonized DC, I wouldn't be surprised if they fiddled while Rome burned...
Stagflation, here we come!
What's a Fed to do...
Layoffs and rise in unemployment--time to cut rates...
Loss of immigrant workers drives inflation up--time to raise rates.
Tariffs and trade wars spark inflation--time to raise rates...
Tariffs and trade wars crash economy--time to cut rates..
Stock markets....talk about irrational exuberance (no, I don't want to see my retirement portfolio crash).
And for that reason, I won’t be one bit surprised if Trump makes a serious effort to undermine the independence of the Fed.
This is the tip of the iceberg. It's not only about federal layoffs, but investment and capital expenditures are sinking, too. The regime is injecting massive uncertainty into the economic outlook. And, unless they back down on the bulk of the tariff threats, those are going go cause mayhem. I've also seen headlines about various cancelled projects due to the the impounding of Inflation Reduction Act spending. And it looks pretty likely that congressional Republicans are going to put the country on a trajectory to borrow a couple of trillion more than under the status quo. So don't look for help from the Fed any time soon. Oh, and the yield curve inversion is blinking neon red.
The number of new postings to job sites was halved.
Got a link for that? Didn't occur to me that that could be a measure to look at.
It is a Trump-driven Minsky moment - a Trumpsky moment.
Exactly this. And it's not just the US, the economic uncertainty and investment pauses are also ramping up across Europe.
It’s not just the federal workforce, all those grants and other congress approved spending translates into jobs. Nonprofits are laying people off, for profits are laying people off. People are more forgiving of military spending because it’s a jobs program but all spending they don’t like is “waste, fraud, and abuse”.
Recession is on deck, which will subdue the population. Until it doesn’t and they revolt - which is what Hegseth is training for.
Federal spending is like a permanent stimulus. You can't cut it without taking away someone's job downwind, and another's job because of their reduced spending, etc. Republican focus on cutting trillions in spending to finance tax cuts will make it so much worse, and that additional money that goes into the pockets of the uber wealthy is not going to make it onto the streets to stimulate reemployment. And Trump will make it even worse with his tariffs, causing prices to spike while consumers have less income to spend.
I'd like my tax cut now. Why should I pay for a suicide pact?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/20/americans-government-taxes
My congressman wants to know my top two priorities from the list he provided.
What are the TWO most important priorities you would like this budget to address?
[ ] Cutting taxes for individuals, families, and small businesses
[ ] Reducing spending, inflation, and the national debt
[ ] Cracking down on government waste, fraud, and abuse of taxpayer dollars
[ ] Stopping illegal immigration and restoring law & order
[ ] Protecting mandatory spending programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid
[ ] Unleashing American opportunity, job creation, and energy production
[ ] Unsure/Other
I'm going with Other and protecting Medicare.
He's also defending the budget resolution with this bit of misinformation...
"There has been a lot of misinformation surrounding this resolution. This was not a vote on a budget itself, rather, it is a more general blueprint. This resolution does not specify cuts to Medicaid or any other specific program. I want to be very clear. Critical programs like Medicaid should continue to support Americans, especially those mothers, children, disabled, blind, and others who need it most.
As we work to get our country back on the right fiscal track and make better use of taxpayer dollars, policymakers in Washington should be looking for bipartisan solutions to increase the well-being of Americans, promote upward mobility, and improve outcomes for families. Passing the budget reconciliation instructions is the vital first step to providing American workers, middle-class families, and small businesses with the tax relief they need. Without this resolution, our economy and Southwest Michigan will face the largest tax increase in the modern era. In fact, the average American taxpayer would see a 22% increase in their tax burden, and 6 million jobs would be lost, according to the House Ways and Means Majority Committee. This is unacceptable.
Bill Huizenga
Member of Congress
See... people are going to have their taxes increased 22%! Because "average" is doing a lot of work here. What a jackass.
The taxes of the laid off federal workers are going down. No income, no taxes!
Via Reuters a few day ago:
Paul Krugman: "The country is being run by an ignorant, megalomaniac chaos monkey. And Trump is like that too."
Our first deliberately engineered recession, not unlike something Stalin or Mao would do.