Hezbollah has been shooting rockets into northern Israel on a daily basis ever since the Gaza war started. An American envoy recently told Lebanon to rein in Hezbollah or face retaliation from Israel, and Atrios is unhappy about this:
I know for some the only de-escalation tool they know is threats, but I submit there are better ones.
I couldn't agree more except for one thing: what are the "better ones"? Hezbollah's only demand is a ceasefire in Gaza, so de-escalation involves figuring out how to negotiate that. This is obviously not an easy task.
In any case, this is unfair to Amos Hochstein, the envoy in question, who's been pretty tireless at trying to de-escalate the situation on the border:
Speaking after meeting with Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, Hochstein called for “urgent” de-escalation.... The US envoy had travelled to Beirut following meetings in Israel on Monday. Israel’s Haaretz reported that he had warned Israeli officials that continuing the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation could lead to a “wide-scale Iranian attack”.
In Beirut, Hochstein said it is in “everyone’s interest” to resolve the conflict quickly and diplomatically. “That is both achievable and it is urgent.”
That's from Al Jazeerah. Whatever else you can say about US support for the Gaza war, Joe Biden has been vocal and persistent in his efforts to prevent the war from spreading. Maybe there's more he could do without abandoning his support for Israel, but I'm not sure what.
Trying to de-escalate by... threatening Israel with an Iranian attack if they attack Hezbollah? I know for some the only de-escalation tool they know is threats, but I submit there are better ones.
Hezbullshit needs to put up or shut up. Free the Palestinian people. Destroy Israel. Coexistence is futile.
Has Biden tried sending a strongly worded letter? Maybe that will work.
"Maybe there's more he could do without abandoning his support for Israel, but I'm not sure what."
I think you just answered your own not-quite-question.
A ceasefire in Gaza should be easy to negotiate, since a proposal supposedly by Israel had basically been accepted by Hamas except for one detail: Israel wants to utterly destroy Hamas after those six weeks and the return of its hostages, and Hamas does not consider that a good deal. Not to defend Hamas but they're not the unreasonable ones in that equation.
But I think Israel would attack Lebanon regardless. It seems to be in the grips of war hysteria. It's crazy, though. Hezbollah can hit Israel like Hamas can't and can keep it up for a very long time even if Israel pummels Lebanon. As Scott Ritter and others have pointed out, this would lead to Israel's own depopulation. Half of its citizens have two passports. They can leave when it becomes too unsafe for their kids. While the Arab populations can't. Israel seems incapable of looking beyond the short-term now. While Hezbollah and Iran have been playing the long game for a very long time and, I think, still are.
A Lebanese ex of mine told me she had to deal with Hezbollah, in th educational field which is her profession. She was impressed with their competence and knowledge of the most modern pedagogic methods. If Israel thinks it can easily beat them, they're idiots.
the main purpose of the war, it seems, is to keep bibi in power and out of prison.
Good comment.
Israel relies and has relied completely on the strategy of cowing potential adversaries into submission. This can work pretty well with corrupt authoritarian regimes -- which is why America props so many of them up in the Middle East -- where the ruling elites have it great and war with American-backed Israel would disrupt that.
But with populist groups, and particularly religiously-based populist groups, not so much.
And the people of Lebanon -- and Gaza, and the West Bank ... and, when you get down to it, Egypt ... -- have not very great lives without much hope of significant improvement. A war would at least give the impression that something was being done about their situation, at least for a while.