Quick note: I'm sure I'll have occasional comments on Russia's invasion of Ukraine over the next few days and weeks, but only if I have something interesting to say. Beyond that, I'm no Ukraine expert and won't be writing about it more generally. You can get that from dozens of regular news sources.
My basic take remains: Putin is a thug; Ukraine is more or less blameless in all this; Donald Trump should be ashamed of himself; ditto for much of the Republican Party and its poltroonish "Putin is only doing this because Biden is weak" crap; every Western country should toss out Russian nationals and restrict visitor visas to one week; Europe needs to get more serious about military power; this is the first major European war since WWII in which one country has invaded another with the intent of permanently taking its territory.
Russia under Putin is a pariah nation. Whatever else you can say about the US invasion of Iraq—and you can say plenty—it was never an attempt to annex territory permanently. This is. Russia needs to be isolated from the rest of the world as long as it pursues this kind of war.
Emphatical agree. Here is list of sanctions that should be applied:
1) Revoke all Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Close all Russian business and personal accounts at non-Russian banks
3) Ban Russian airlines from landing at airports outside Russia.
4) Close non-Russian ports to any Russian merchant ships.
5) Forced devisture of Russians holding real property outside Russian
6) Block Russian access to financial markets
7) Close internet peering agreements between Russia and civilized parts of the world
Would add Russian passports not valid for entry in the US or EU countries. For anyone; sports players, actors, dancers, babies, business people, etc.
Sanctioning oligarchs, politicians, and businesses with ties to the state is entirely appropriate in this context, but punishing artists, journalists, intellectuals and performers is counterproductive. Those are the people we should be giving a voice to.
They will be more likely to raise their voices if unable to freely mingle and shop in the free world. This is a very critical time in world history, Putin has denied the historicity of a sovereign nation and made unprovoked nuclear threats to the rest of the world, this is not normal business, and all Russians should be cut off from the free world community until this situation changes.
No. If it doesn't affect all, you get "What, me worry?" not protests.
I think given that Ukrainians will be dying as a result of this invasion, inconveniencing some Russian journalists, athletes, artists, etc. is a pretty small price for them to pay.
I think the entry restrictions don't go far enough. But a blanket ban on all Russians strikes me as going too far (right now). I'd suggest a decent first step would be, in addition to banning oligarchs and targeted regime supporters, all employees of the Russian State in whatever capacity + first degree relatives.
This would affect many millions of people, but would ostensibly allow blameless Russians to head to the West.
This must be considered, Russia is not just dependent on oligarchs. Anyone who is a Russian citizen should feel this isolation, as Russia is still ostensibly a democratic government.
And if Russian students, Russian artists, etc. who are traveling abroad denounce their home country out loud and in public, what do you think will happen to their families at home? _Bad_ idea.
I would imagine universities will lobby hard against cutting off the 4,000+ Russian students paying full tuition.
They'll have to sacrifice for the time being.
Like the 1980 US Olympic Team.
(I was thirty nine years old when I learned that Americans still competed in Moscow, though -- Puerto Rico still sent their athletes.)
And that lobbying should be ignored.
Now that the conservative political parties of Europe and America have discovered the joy of being bankrolled by Russian oligarchs (hence their Putin cheerleading), there's a limit to how serious any sanctions will ever be that might disrupt that cash.
Suggestion for one more sanction:
8) Deport the former guy to Russia.
Maybe put Tucker Carlson on the plane with him?
Please consider charging Putin with a war crime and posting a substantial reward for his surrender. Broadcast to Russia that obeying any order by Putin to use nuclear weapons is only going to result in the complete destruction of Russia. Such orders must be disobeyed by any loyal Russian.
Putin presumes and people like Trump and Carlson reinforce his belief that freedom of opinion in a democracy is a weakness to be exploited. There is no better way of proving Putin wrong than forcefully rejecting pepole like T and C.
I second that list.
Ban RT (Russia's propaganda network) from US cable systems and hotels. And why restrict visitor visas to 1 week? How about no visitor visas? I feel like a complete economic blockade is in order. Not with warships but just make all trade with Russia illegal till the get out of Ukraine.
Yeah, I don't get that part, either.
This is a start... but don't cut off the Internet - let Putin do that.
Another very important thing is to cut off all trade and all US tech, even if exported by third parties.
There are NO mobile phones without US tech.
Microsoft Windows without Windows Update becomes more and more vulnerable over time as more exploits are discovered.
Cut off access to all open source software as well. There are no serious database servers produced by Russia or China.
Send them back to the 1980s where they are getting their foreign policy from.
How about cash bounties to defecting Russian soldiers with BIG bonuses if they kill officers before they go?
I would agree with all of these sanctions and more. Nevertheless, it's clear that the West and NATO has no stomach for a confrontation with Russia. The money and the natural gas mean everything to them; there's not a single NATO country that proposed those sanctions or any other meaningful sanctions.
Most importantly, the UK is the home to the bulk of oligarch wealth, property ownership, and it's where most of them keep their families. It would be the linchpin of any meaningful sanction. But Boris gave to speeches the City's leadership and another in parliament; in the first, he gave assurances to the City that it would be business as usual and in the speech to parliament he proposed utterly toothless sanctions.
No other NATO country has announced a single on of the sanctions you've listed and apparently none will.
Clearly, the next test of a supposed "red line" will be once Putin has installed a puppet government in Ukraine and turns his attention to reclaiming the remainder of the Warsaw Pact nations. My guess is it will be a year or two and he'll take the rest of Georgia and start nibbling away at Poland. But that's just a guess—it's clear that the NATO alliance cannot be counted on due to Russia's powerful Fifth Columns in England, France, and the US (plus German and Italian dependence on Russian oil and natural gas).
For ages I've been trying to tell people that just because someone is an idiot in great detail doesn't mean they're smart, and that's someone like Putin.
I think NATO countries, and every European country, should eject every Russian national including the embassies. Why do we need to maintain the pretense that the Putin regime is not a criminal organization? At this point it's simply harmful to every interest that we have.
Unfortunately, this is likely what we will have to do, so that Putin and the Russian elite are truly held responsible.
He is suffering no consequences that exceed the value to him of taking Ukraine.
That is what he predicted.
He is playing a busted flush but since our president is unwilling to use force he is achieving his objectives.
How is that not smart?
I doubt if the deployment of US troops would do anything except probably start WW III.
Putin isn't playing a busted flush; he's holding all the cards because the West's finance and property sectors are addicted to oligarch wealth.
The power that the US and NATO have is economic sanctions. Nobody in the West is willing to stand up to the vast industry that has strung up in handling dark money. If Biden really wanted to strike at Putin's power base, he could do nothing better than (1) tell Boris it's a choice between real sanction and no trade deal with US; and, (2) tell Wall Street that they'll have to choose between sanctions or having the DOJ run through Wall Street like Sherman through Georgia.
Blink. Surprisingly, we are in agreement.
That’s one in a million. But the sanctions regime you’ve described is so obvious and necessary that would be astonishing if we weren’t in agreement at least this one time.
When it really counts, we all come together, or so I'd like to think.
Now is when it counts and we still aren’t imposing meaningful sanctions. What the Russians have in the West they’re being allowed to keep. The most meaningful sanctions are that oligarchs will need to add an extra step when moving wealth to London and that Putin won’t be allowed to visit his estates in the South of France until his conquest of Ukraine is finalized.
I hate to say anything positive about little Donnie “two scoops” but his assessment of Putin’s assessment was absolutely perfect.
Criminalize bitcoin.
Churchill said it best.
You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war
You too have your choice and you seem to have no trouble making it.
The only reason Putin holds the cards is that we are unwilling to play our aces.
We had months to deploy our forces in Ukraine and even today, given the land borders with NATO members, we could go in quick and hard. NATO aviation can easily deny control of the skies to Russia and we can start speaking with him in the only language he will listen to - body bags.
Instead, Putin will advance until the Western reaction begins to actually hurt. Then he will advance a bit further. Then he will trade a small part of his gains in return for giving up all but cosmetic punishment. And scum like you will celebrate peace in our time.
Hate to break it to you but UK is pushing to kick Russia out of SWIFT. Italy and Germany are blocking it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/europe-swift-russia-cutoff/
I’ve evidently not been very clear about which kinds of sanctions I see as meaningful and which are mostly symbolic. Essentially, sanctions which force repatriation of Russian oligarchs families or assets are meaningful. Sanctions which seize assets or intern family members would be extremely powerful.
But nearly everything else is just symbolic. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT would have been an important symbol of disapproval and a harbinger of true powerful sanctions to come if Russia would invade. But now it would be a minor inconvenience, at most forcing oligarchs to use an intermediary bank.
Similarly, sanctions targeting Putin himself are meaningless if they don’t seize the assets or force their reparation to Russia. Instead of threatening his safe haven if things go wrong at home, Putin simply is forbidden from vacationing in France for the duration.
To repeat myself, Russia and her oligarchs are uniquely vulnerable to sanctions because she is a mafia state in which no one is safe and everything is up for grabs. Oligarchs keep their families and more than half of their wealth in the West where the rule of law prevails and they are safe. Freezing assets until after the Ukrainian people have been subjugated is meaningless; taking those assets away and forcing their children to return to Russia is powerful.
I certainly favor confiscation and deportation, but events are moving fast. Putin has made several mentions of the Russian nuclear arsenal, and his Foreign Ministry is threatening Sweden and Finland. The oligarchs must realize that the madman in the Kremlin is risking not merely their fortunes and their freedom to travel, but the lives of millions of human beings, including themselves, their families and everyone they have ever known. If that does not spur them to action, sanctions never will.
I think it’s a matter of perspective. Nobody really believes that Putin would destroy himself, his family, and the world over Ukraine. So I think the oligarchs don’t see the threats about nuclear weapons as something that is a serious immediate threat.
The tepid actions by the west on sanctions and, in particular, the subtle reassurance given by Boris that the UK will never harm the Russian oligarchs, are strong confirmations of Putin’s assurances that, in fact, the oligarchs fortunes, families, and freedom to shelter in the west won’t be threatened no matter what. Assurances by western governments that the oligarchs will experience nothing more than symbolic inconvenience is hardly going to spur the oligarchs to confront Putin.
The reality is that the west, and particularly England, is not going to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs no matter what Russia does. NATO might as well dissolve itself and save the west some money.
I wish I were as sure as you, but I see the risk of miscalculation. Putin may well convince himself that he could attack Poland, or the Baltic states without a military response from NATO. I think rather that even an attack on a longtime neutral like Finland or Sweden, on top of the invasion of Ukraine, would demand a confrontation. Things could spiral out of control quickly.
I agree that he might miscalculate about a conventional confrontation but I have difficulty believing that there are circumstances under which Putin would be prepared to go from bring the world’s richest and most powerful man to watching himself and his family beings turned into a puddle of radioactive goo.
I do think it’s possible that Russia will eventually attack Poland. Probably he’ll take Georgia next, then the rest of the Baltic states and annex the current satellites before he takes Poland. If the west’s pathetic response to the invasion of Ukraine is any indication, Putin would be quite convinced that he could take what he wants without fear of sanctions, let alone a military response.
We’ll see who’s right about the NATO response when he moves against Finland. Maybe Sweden too
This is just silly.
"the subtle reassurance given by Boris that the UK will never harm the Russian oligarchs"
What subtle reassurance?
"The reality is that the west, and particularly England, is not going to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs no matter what Russia does. "
Well, cutting open the goose and taking the golden eggs right now is always a strategy.
See https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swift-block-deals-crippling-blow-russia-leaves-room-tighten-2022-02-27/. A full SWIFT cut off would probably reduce Russia GDP by 5%. That is substantial... and a reasonable first step.
Stopping energy purchases from Russia would be another one. Neither Germany or US is willing to do that. Seizing property from oligarchs is an annoyance - none of them keep most of their money outside of Russia. Good to do, but not going to make a big difference.
UK has cut off access to UK airspace. Canada, US, and Germany have not.
"Oligarchs keep their families and more than half of their wealth in the West where the rule of law prevails and they are safe."
This is ignorant nonsense - you apparently know little or nothing about the Russian system. Have you ever worked in Russia? I challenge you to document this claim.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/revoke-the-student-visas-of-the-russian-oligarchs-kids/
https://realnoevremya.com/articles/3014-rich-russians-bank-two-thirds-of-their-assets-abroad
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/west-has-let-russian-oligarchs-hide-their-wealth-here-for-far-too-long/
https://todaynewspost.net/news/world/uk-news/boris-johnson-under-fire-over-peashooter-russian-sanctions/
It's not smart, it's just brutal, like a mugger who's discovered he can get away with it because the cops only care about certain neighborhoods.
The limit on Russian visas would be terrible for Trump's Florida condo developments, right? Where else would feel the pinch? London, certainly. Beverly Hills?
Hry, I wants me some of that sweet, sweet Russian oligarch cash. Not to mention some prime London real estate ... or properties in America for that matter.
South Dakota where they do the shadow trusts
May hurt Prague, too. Apparently a second choice for those who can not afford London.
Vegas.
His profit there is just room rents, since the Gaming Commission never approved him to have gambling in his hotel. Only place I'm Nevada without slots is the Trump Hotel.
The South of France would be hit extremely hard. It’s by far the most popular destination for oligarchs and their families. It is one of the few places where oligarchs actually spend time in the properties they own as opposed to the empty mansions in Mayfair and Knightsbridge. I believe that Putin himself owns huge estates there.
Putin's Russia is a significant source of international mischief. No doubt, their current actions in the Ukraine are completely inappropriate and against international law. However, the problem is complex.
Russia produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and provides 40 perfect of Europe's gas. Extreme, long lasting sanctions on Russia would definitely impact the global economy.
Seen a lot of discussion recently of the fact that Russia is a top producer of several key ingredients for much of the world's supply of crop fertilizers. In addition, Ukraine and Russia together export quite a lot of seed oils and grain, particularly to Africa and the Middle East. A prolonged conflict could have serious repercussions for global food security.
Russian is the world's second largest supplier of potash, the primarily ingredient in many agricultural fertilizers.
This is all true, but it's easy to overstate it, too. Russian GDP is less than $1.5 trillion while overall global GDP is _$85_ trillion (with the US and Europe clocking in at ~$21 trillion apiece). However much oil, gas, potash, fertilizer, weapon sales, drug running, phishing scams and whatever else Russia does in the world economy gets taken offline by Western sanctions, it's ultimately not a huge deal.
There will be some short-term pain, sure, particularly as energy prices go up, but that will just incentivize decarbonization (a bit plus!) and accelerate the long-term morbidity of Russia's only significant export.
‘Mischief’? ‘Inappropriate’? This is a person who has political opponents, critics, journalists poisoned or defenestrated, and has now invaded a sovereign nation with no provocation whatsoever, in violation of the UN Charter, international law, and the the Minsk Agreement. He is hell-bent on actions which will lead to World War III if he is not stopped. I for one will put up with higher gasoline prices and “having” to eat organically-grown food to strangle the Russian economy until someone marginally smarter takes out the Kremlin punk and calls off Armageddon.
Exactly. Pain on the proles can be discounted (at least, I'm admittedly guessing that this is what's going on in his head.) Pain on his fellow oligarchs? If I were Putin I'd be rather paranoid about possible attempts on his life. Some Polonium in his food, say 😉
Does he have a taster, or eat only the olives off his favorite tree?
Randomly pops into people's houses and raids the fridge?
Or, like Zuckerberg, 'only eats what he kills himself'.
I can completely imagine it.
'picture it' I meant to write 'picture it' but typed 'imagine it'. Why? When will god invent the edit function?
Exactly. Sanctions should be targeted to powerful Russians we can hurt financially - when they feel enough pain, they are best positioned to deal with the root cause …
Yes, Putin is a thug and Russia is now a pariah state. Their invasion seems to me identical to Hitler's invasion of Poland in the 1930's.
Beyond this I am certain of little else, but suspect that this will not turn out well for Russia or the Russians.
The big question is how long it will take, and what else will happen, before it turns out badly. Germany has a short but highly destructive run before it turned out badly for them.
One more similarity between Hitler's invasion of Poland and Putin's invasion of Ukraine: in both cases Republicans advocated for standing by and just letting it happen.
Robert Taft was sort of the Rand Paul of his day.
Except that when Germany and Russia invaded Poland the West had the guts to declare war.
Today all we see is rank cowardice. The Ukrainians are fighting and dying alone.
Seize all Russian assets and properties that can be seized, expell Russian nationals, cut all every dollar the Russia can conceivably get that the US controls. Time to but Putin in as big a barrel as possible. There are decades of crimes to pay for.
Um, could you elaborate on your reasoning there?
I imagine there's a missing qualifier like "in this century" or "in the last 70 years" or something that Kevin forgot to include.
don't forget the Prague Spring...
And Georgia--that's not part of Europe...
Georgia, 2008, under Bush-43.
The GQP is going on that their girl Vladdy invaded Crimea under Obummer & Luhansk & Donentz under Brandon, but were pacified under El Jefe (because Putin feared Trump, as a strong Republican, like Beirut Baby Ronald Reagan). It's a lie, of course.
Kevin has since added a “since WWII” qualifier. I’m still curious what other conflicts in Europe since then he considers “major@ wars.
The benighted Nazi personality has existed for millennia. At every point in history you can read of people like this who have suddenly discovered brutality and think it's a stroke genius and insight and that no one has ever tried brutality before and everything is becoming soft, feminine and feeble compared to, wow, brutality and we need to be abusive and brutal and just fucking well be abusive and brutal in all things and about all things.
The modern world affords this character far too many avenues to cause incredible damage, whether they're Trump or Putin or Peter Thiel.
Putin has a concomitant mental issue where he's the kind of ultra-nationalist social conservative who imagines his race or nation has a kind of supernaturally ordained mission to expand it's grandeur. There is often a sense these people have that wherever some x person has been buried has become x territory for all time and this gives them a believable rationale to seize your territory.
If Putin only had a couple more decades he could get revenge on the Turks for destroying Byzantium!
"There is often a sense these people have that wherever some x person has been buried has become x territory for all time and this gives them a believable rationale to seize your territory."
Israel has been using that logic for decades.
No, they have not, but you can't deny that some of them do.
This land is mine:
https://youtu.be/4pKMV6e5kEo
I think you nailed this one. Particularly the bit where they (re)discovering brutality and then employing it is a stroke of genius.
Historically, Ukraine is Sweden, while Russia is Mongolia.
Give both back to their respective owners.
Although of course if he were to be consistent, he should bring a million Russians back from the Kaliningrad Oblast and let Poles, Lithuanians and Germans re-populate it as the Free State of Königsberg, or New Prussia, or whatever.
For someone who criticizes knee-jerk reactions, have you thought that one through? Going to include dissidents in that Western house sweeping?
Anyone who denounces the actions of Russia could be offered asylum, if not citizenship (in US, Europe or elsewhere).
All should be treated with respect however, and politely flown home at our expense if not identifying as a dissent or otherwise applying for asylum.
dissident
You got it in one. Make it clear that our beef is with one particular individual, not with them.
As I said above, this is a very bad idea. What happens to their families at home if they acquiesce to your demand that they publicly denounce the actions of their Country as a condition for asylum/citizenship?
My typos and elisions are worse than usual, it seems.
When there is a war, people must make choices.
It's enough to cut all business contacts/exchanges. Too many fine Russians scattered across the globe. Including some of my coworkers.
Severing business access to as many countries as possible is where to strike. And of course any governmental entities. Example...an import export company in South Africa owned by a Russian company has the business shut down and access to all inventory closed. Held until return of control to Ukraine.
The sheer volume would overwhelm his ability to respond with threats. Hopefully snowballing. Wishful thinking....
Good luck on getting South Africa to cooperate.
Under international law, political dissidents would be able to claim asylum. Oligarchs, their various servants, and their family members would not be entitled to claim asylum and would be deported to Russia. That’s what puts the pressure on the oligarchs—Russia is a mafia state so neither their wealth nor their families are save; that’s why the oligarchs tend to keep both in rage west.
In 2008, Russia attacked Georgia, despite efforts by the US to prevent it. In 2014, Russia attacked again, taking Crimea and securing portions of eastern Ukraine. Now, in 2022, Russia has again attacked Ukraine.
A pattern of aggression is clearly established, along with a rationale for this latest aggression that denies a democratic sovereign nation's legitimacy and historicity. Russia must be expelled from free society and markets.
+1
There ought to be a mechanism for expelling Russia from the UN's security council, if not from UN membership. Their representative presiding over a meeting there just this week was an abomination.
There is a mechanism.
Beat them in a war and then reform the UN.
Kind of like we made the UN from the ashes of the League of Nations.
Are you demanding that Biden go to war?
If not, then you should really shut up because you are not a serious person.
I think you’ve got things backwards. Serious people are talking about sanctions which can be effective. What does it mean to say that you want to conquer Russia?
Russia has an extremely large land mass and a very substantial population. NATO is incapable of conquering and occupying Russia. Germany invaded the USSR with the largest army ever assembled (over 3 million men) and failed utterly. The combined armies of NATO are less than half that number.
What’s more, Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal and the delivery systems to destroy our country many times over and if, by some miracle, the west could occupy Russia, it seems likely that they launch their nuclear weapons rather than surrender.
(https://www.statista.com/statistics/584286/number-of-military-personnel-in-nato-countries/)
Note the straw man argument. No one but you is talking about invading Russia. You have given up on even trying to argue honestly.
The serious people in this fight are Putin and Zelensky. Their militaries are at war. The other nattering nabobs of nincompoopery are merely imposing cosmetic sanctions. Have you noticed the US has not even blocked Russia from US airspace? Canada at least had the guts to do that.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1497988483314597888?s=20&t=xKoW1Q4Dqfiftmlc4QQ_rA
I believe that if you go back and read your original comment you said “Beat them in a war and then reform the UN.
Kind of like we made the UN from the ashes of the League of Nations.
Are you demanding that Biden go to war?
If not, then you should really shut up because you are not a serious person.”
You certainly made some ignorant assumptions. No, I never "demanded" any such thing. However, allowing Putin's megalomania to be encouraged by Russia's position at the UN after his success in using trump to encourage his supporters to regard Putin as an ally, is absurd.
FYI, I don't "demand" anything of anyone, let alone any head of state; that is absurd.
Perhaps you'll feel better tomorrow - & maybe less condescending.
We here know Putin’s a thug, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo thinks he’s a ‘statesman’ - https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article258638383.html
Well, Pompeo's a thug, too. There may be a problem with US military academies that Pompeo even graduated, much less that he was #1 in his class. Then also, Michael Flynn, traitor for hire.
I think that doing well at West Point indicates that you are smart. Graduating number one indicates that you are smart-- and a brown noser.
Watched Casa Blanca the other day. The scenes of Paris before Hitler invaded now have more meaning to me. I'm looking out on a major freeway now trying to envision a rush to get out of the way of an invading army. All of the folks in their cars...I wonder how many of them will give a crap about all of this except when they go to fill up the gas tank?
Do the fine folks at Fox [or any of the journos everywhere] understand what it means to be under an authoritarian leader? Enemies of the state usually end up at the end of a noose
This is truly surreal.
I think the assumption underlying the Republican Party’s support for authoritarianism is that they or their white nationalist Christian allies are the ones who will rule forever. They do not fear the power of the state being turned against them partly because they cannot conceive of a society in which they are not privileged and protected. And partly because their opponents are not other totalitarians or authoritarians but instead are liberal democrats who value the rights and freedom of everyone and thus would never consider doing to conservatives what conservatives are doing to everyone else.
For Republicans, that’s the meaning of “freedom” in much the same way that the Declaration of Independence unironically used the phrase “all men are created equal” even though the American colonies were essentially a slave society in which blacks were properly and not men.
+1
The only thing that was going to stop this was 10's of thousands of US or NATA troops in the Ukraine. Otherwise, it was just going to happen.
It's also not like sanctions don't shoot us too. We don't have the will for 10% interest rates.
I think real sanctions would’ve stopped Russia dead in its tracks. And within a few months probably would have resulted in the death of every member of the Putin family. Russia is probably the only country in modern history that’s exquisitely vulnerable to sanctions against it and yet no real sanctions are being proposed.
Americans need to deal harshly with our Fifth Columnists be they white Christian nationalists at Fox News and in the republican party or those who would sell their souls for oligarch gold. Our survival as a democracy depends upon how we respond both to Putin‘s aggression and also to the support given to that aggression by fifth columnist in the West.
Got it in one again!
What about the Democrats who filibustered Nordstream 2 sanctions?
Putin thinks the future is the Dark Ages, because no one's ever tried the Dark Ages before.
Xi Jinping is on board, too, unfortunately.
Also, Boris who is proposing the most trivial of sanctions even though it is the UK which holds the bulk of Russian oligarchs wealth and gives shelter to their families.
You need to separate "Russia" from Russians. Revoking all visas harms those who are against Putin's actions. Sending these folks back to Russia isn't necessarily a good thing.
Three days ago, Putin told the world through his grievance, that his goal was to reunite the USSR. This does not stop at the edge of Ukraine.
We, along with our allies, should be sending weaponized drones and Javelins. This asymmetrical war can be fought to a bloody stalemate, but we need to ramp up support now. Wesley Clark suggested sending in heavy weaponry -- I think that's wrong. This is an asymmetrical war and Ukraine can't ever get enough heavy weaponry and training to make up for that asymmetry. This is 100% guerilla warfare, aka Afghanistan 1980, but this time, we have far better weapons to help Ukraine reach a stalemate (if we choose this path).
If we fail to stop Putin's war at Ukraine, he will keep going. Moldova is next, eventually followed by nuclear war.
Let's get real.
Stopping Putin is a vital national interest of the US.
We need to send troops.
Which troops would those be? You might want to remember that the last war the USA won was the Second World War. Our general staff is not simply composed of peacetime generals, it's composed of men who have been competing to win at politics or to be named viceroy in someplace we've invaded but failed to conquer.
Apart from the inadequacies of our own military, it's worth remembering that the Russian military is significantly larger than any force which we could plausible assemble and the Russians also have access to significantly more recruits than does the United States.
Plus, Russia has two extremely powerful groups of allies in this country who have blocked meaningful sanctions. The Republican Party (which is likely to control Congress in 2022 and already controls the Supreme Court) and its propaganda outlets like Fox News are strongly behind Russia and would be likely to begin a terror campaign if there were military clashes between the USA and Russia.
The authoritarian government of Israel, acting in conjunction with Putin's domestic allies here, blocked the delivery to Ukraine of the Patriot missile batteries. The Republicans have consistently blocked supplying aid to Ukraine (indeed, the leader of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, was impeached for withhold aid from Ukraine)
The second group of Russian allies (the financial and property sectors) have blocked all meaningful sanctions in the USA, Canada, France, and the UK.
Add to that the reality that Russia is a nuclear armed state that will very likely destroy the world before surrendering.
Putin is being unreasonable and irrational. I think he has based all his planning and actions on an inaccurate picture of the forces arrayed against him. It will take a long time to disabuse him of his thinking..and it will be tragic and dangerous every step of the way. For now Biden is doing a good job and europe is hanging tough…if the opposition. Stays firm….Putin will go down..fingers crossed.
You are pretty funny.
Let me predict the future for you.
1. Putin will keep going until the cost gets too high.
2. Putin will then make minor concessions - give up a small percentage of his gains - in return for lifting of all except a few minor sanctions.
3. Putin will have made huge strategic and territorial gains at little or no cost to him.
Biden has not proposed meaningful sanctions. The EU and UK have actually blocked meaningful sanctions, even including the not particularly harsh one of removing Russian financial institutions from SWIFT.
So far the totality of sanctions imposed by the West are that oligarchs will need to route wires through an extra bank on their way to London. And Putin won’t be able to vacation at his estates in the South of France.
Bottom line: Putin based his planning on the assumption that the West would posture and squeal but ultimately would do nothing. And so far he seems to be totally right.
The “large Internet company” news aggregator I use hasn’t shown any, but have there been any statements from Senator Sanders in the last 24 hours concerning Ukraine?
Yes, he’s called for strong sanctions against Russia and condemned Putin’s white nationalist Christian allies in this country.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/02/22/bernie-sanders-denounces-russia-indefensible-invasion-ukraine
I am not as confident as many that Ukraine will turn into a quagmire for Russia the way Afghanistan did.
The landscape is completely flat, nowhere to hide. The borders will not be anything like as porous.
The only quagmire for them will what can be inflicted externally.
It's difficult to fire back at a person with a Javelin. Shoot and leave, as it's known. This is the reason why Ukraine wanted, and US shipped hundreds of Javelins.
Drones are difficult to track and can be fired from anywhere, not just within a few miles of its target.
He'll try to impose a security network as tight as the Soviet Unions'.
Where is all the bad press when Russia carpet bombs entire villages out of existence in Syria?
He'll be certain he can get away with the most draconian repression. Look at the Uighurs.
Putin probably has a little hand stitched cloth with the maxim 'One dead man is a tragedy, a million is a statistic' framed and hanging over his fireplace.
Thought I'd add more details.
Read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/
These are the tools of a guerilla war that demoralizes an enemy that is better equipped and greater in number.
The Russian army is built around battalion combat groups. These units have a lot of long range firepower, but are very light on actual infantry. This makes them quite unsuitable for urban combat. It looks like they are going to try to neutralize cities with special forces and their own irregular forces.
One way that this is going to be very different from Afghanistan is that the cities are going to be the locus of the guerilla resistance, rather than the countryside. It's almost an inversion of both the Russian and the American wars if Afghanistan.
Resistance will resemble Budapest 1956 or Fallujah 2004. Although the big power prevailed in both cases, they did so only by excessively brutal means, and took heavy losses as well.
I think that’s the most likely outcome. If I understand correctly, the Ukrainian strategy was to hold out until the sanctions began to bite the oligarchs who would then pressure/depose/kill Putin. But it’s clear that the west is not going to impose real sanctions (and, indeed, Boris has assured the City that there won’t be major disruptions in servicing the oligarchs). So I think it’s going to play out the way you’re describing.
“every Western country should toss out Russian nationals”
This is my favorite minor punishment. It’s trivial, but why should we let those awful people live here? Send them back to their shithole country.
And stop doing work for them. The idiot Germans fixing his yacht. It’s disgusting.
https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-yacht-graceful-left-germany-amid-sanction-threats-report-2022-2
And this is disgusting too. Pity the poor diamonds dealers.
https://www.brusselstimes.com/207876/eu-russia-sanctions-rock-antwerps-diamond-district
Too bad no one christened it with a Molotov cocktail on its way out.
Is it just me or does that yacht have a cold and evil, narrow eyed expression?
In fact, it far from trivial. In many ways it's the most powerful sanction that can be placed on Russia. It's important to remember that there's a reason why the oligarchs keep their families and more than half of their wealth in the Western Europe and the USA. Russia is essentially a mafia state with the oligarchs, the secret police, and even the military continually jockeying for position with the fruits of victory being vast wealth but the price of defeat is death for yourself and your family.
The last thing that the oligarchs want to do is to keep their families in that primitive, unstable society. Being forced to bring both their wealth and their families back to Russia is a terrifying possibility and, as we saw, it was the only roadblock to the invasion of Ukraine. Putin addressed the oligarchs and assured them that there would be no sanctions against them; which was confirmed the next day by Boris and the decision of the EU not to impose sanctions which would have forced the oligarchs to bring their families and wealth back to the dangerous swamp that is Russia.
Putin relies heavily on his network of oligarchs. Someone at the Bulkwark suggested blowing up some of their half-billion-dollar yachts anchored in Mediterranean ports. That may be a bit much, but why not just seize them?
Oh, that's right . . . international law!
Seriously, this war would grind to a halt if the oligarch money that's sprinkled all over the wealthy world would be confiscated and anyone who facilitated their money laundering charged with crimes. That would take guts. The Republicans would compare it to Castro and Chavez seizing private property. Make them defend the oligarchs! Add up their cumulative wealth and make U.S. voters memorize the number!
I thought this was pretty spot on.
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/what-you-need-to-understand-about?utm_source=url
We accept Russia’s new European order.
Or we overturn it.
That’s it. That’s the choice.
So what would overturning the new order entail? It would include, but not be limited to:
Massive, Iran-level sanctions against Russia and Russia client states (which now includes Belarus and will eventually include a Vichy version of Ukraine).
Targeting of all Russian dirty money circulating in the West.
Refusal of entry into NATO territories of Putin-connected oligarchs and their entourages.
Large-scale buildup of military forces by NATO members made possible by dramatically increased defense spending.
Deployment of NATO troops to all member states that border Russia/Ukraine/Belarus.
Forking European energy policy away from Russian oil and gas supplies.
Preparing for the next non-Treaty member crisis, most likely in Georgia.
Preparing for an Article V crisis, most likely in Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia.
That’s the minimum ante for the attempt to overturn the new Russian order. And it will require a commitment from the NATO states not of months, but of years.
Which is a particular problem because of the place America is in right now.
Some of our enormous military expenditures should be redirected to reducing our dependence on resources owned by dictators. It seems to be a very significant national-security issue.
Indeed.
Some foreign policy strategies are all about bringing these countries into the system however, as a way of changing them from within via mutual embeddedness (and in light of our global commons challenges).
Who's right?
I think the policy of “embeddedness” has been conclusively demonstrated to be a complete failure this week.
Cut them off.
Agree!
The other tenet of that approach was that increased trade, market reform and cultural exchange would lead to political liberalization. Uh-huh. A couple of thousand Russian war protestors have already been arrested.
And once again, inflict as much pain as you can on the wealthy and powerful, until they realize that their lot could be better if V. Putin happened to fall out of a high Kremlin window.
I’d actually be ok with completely wrecking the Russian population, if it were possible. Targeted sanctions don’t really work all that well. Heck, sanctions don’t work all that well period. See Iran.
To me, sanctions aren’t about punishment as much as they are about moral clarity. It’s time to stop making deals with the devil.
Well, one could argue that North Korea’s isolationism has been a sort of self-sanctioning, which has left it a shithole. Didn’t stop it becoming a nuclear-armed shithole, however.
I'm all for turning a blind eye to Ukrainian frogmen operating in Mediterranean ports.
Technically, if NATO and it’s member countries pass the necessary laws, all Russian nationals can be interned and their property seized and disposed of according to domestic law.
It would not be wise to expel all Russian nationals from the US, keeping cultural exchanges occurring would help nurture the Not Putin parts of Russia. As it is there are protesters out in Red Square and in St. Petersburg. By recognizing that Putin is not the whole of Russia we give the rest Russia room to decide to dump Putin.
The NHL would be in a major pickle if Russian nationals were forbidden from playing in North America, I think almost every NHL team has as least one Russian national on their team. It will be extremely interesting tonight at the Capitals/Rangers game tonight, Alexander Ovechkin Caps team captain is married to the daughter of an oligarch and "buddies" with Putin. Artemi Panarin on the Rangers has been outspoken in his opposition to Putin at a cost of Russia disinfo trying to frame him for raping an 18 girl while he was a player in the KHL.
OK, let’s just expel Ovechkin.
But what about the health of Mama Lucci's restaurant?
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Gee, heaven forbid a North American sports league suffer a 2% drop in profits.
A case could be made that longer-term work visa holders should remain, but I haven't heard any good arguments for keeping around Russians on student and visitor visas. You don't attack the Western world and expect us to let your relatively-more-elite still traipse around as if nothing is happening. These people will not like the prospect of being denied access to our markets, culture, higher learning and destinations.
Since exactly none of the sanctions proposed by anyone in this comments section (or in the articles they’ve cited) have been proposed by a single government including ours, the reality is that Russia can attack the west and they were perfectly correct in assuming that we would indeed roll over and play dead.
Yeah, the National Hockey League has more influence than you might think 🙂
Useful site for viewing updates shown in map format.
https://liveuamap.com/
That is really excellent.
I'm getting a 520 error trying to get to that site.
A lot of software development is offshored to Russia. This should cease immediately.
A decade ago the USG already forbid use of Russian software like Kapersky.
Now would be the time for the Georgians to rise up.
And Kazakhstan
........
and Belarus.....
should mention--I can say anything since I'm safe. The people in those places are not.
... and Russians
Putin is a thug?
"The 1980s called. They want their foreign policy back."
But I guess Kevin has always been at war with Eurasia.
Please don't feed the troll.
Yep, perhaps a Russian troll, haha. Probably a lot of them right about now.
Send more Javelins and Turkish drones.
https://twitter.com/UATV_en/status/1496853453099913226
This is how you fight an asymmetric war.
Putin/Oligarchs are not open season for the "Western powers" . Putin has always misread Ukraine. Destroy his oligarchy, you destroy Bannon, Alex Jones(who's spied for Israel in the 00's) and the Trump organization. I could see 40-60% of "right wing" organizations collapse globally. Libtards are so stupid, you don't even know a con. It's why the populist wing of the party needs to take power.
In the 1980s, Alex Jones was a Texas High School Football Legend. He was not an Israeli spy.
Yes, he is. Jones is a big con man financed by billionaires since 2000
Gotta catch 'em when they're young, amirite? At least, that's what the scouts say.
I am surprised Russia doesn't have a celebration for the 1930's Ukrainian "famine". The stolen food helped Russian industrial efforts which saved them from the Nazis.
Russian army goes to war with mobile crematoria to 'evaporate' their own dead to hide evidence of losses, according to this,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-used-beatings-and-tricks-to-forcibly-send-soldiers-to-ukraine-human-rights-group-says?ref=scroll
Krugman suggests the Putin regime's soft underbelly is overseas laundered assets. According to him, the country's kleptocracy has stashed an amount equal to about 85% of GDP outside Russia. It's a serious vulnerability, if Western countries—especially the US and Britain—are willing to act forcefully. Krugman likewise mentions the US administration already has the legal authority to take decisive action. I'd say this is the way to go. Putin's elite supporters won't quietly allow their fortunes to be seized.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-sanctions-offshore-accounts.html?
Well duh. It's why oil prices are going to crash going forward. Russia ain't gonna stop pumping oil into china. Nobody is gonna stop them. Speculation on price will create a production bubble.
You attack the Oligarchs global capital markets and their organizations like the Jewish hedge fund managers behind "zerohedge". Eventually pieces break off the tree, people turn, said organization is outed and disbanded.