I've been an on-and-off defender of the FDA and CDC during the COVID pandemic, but I don't think there's much question that the FDA blew it on COVID testing kits. In Europe, something like a hundred different kits have been approved for sale. In the US it's more like a dozen. There's no good reason for this.
Now, it's also true that Abbott, the biggest manufacturer of test kits, took a look at COVID over the summer and thought it was fading away. So they shut down one of their factories and trashed millions of kits. Oops.
There's one other factor at work as well. In Europe, healthcare is run by national governments. They ordered lots of kits at a low negotiated price, so manufacturers ramped up production to provide them. In the US, healthcare is run by no one in particular, so lots of kits weren't ordered. And if they're not ordered, they don't get made.
The two lessons here are (a) something about FDA approval procedures, and (b) we should have national healthcare too.
This: we should have national healthcare too. It would solve so many problems.
Kevin, I suggest you slip this idea of a National Healthcare system into your Christmas card to Joe Manchin.
Like testing matters. Not testing is more important. Saves time. Notice South Africa cases are dropping without a particularly large hospitalization spike. This is the future.
I’m quite content to bash the FDA, but just how many different kits are needed? Once there are a dozen just how much more good is done by a hundred? Just how well evaluated could the hundreds be?
Also, about a dozen (or hundred) of what sort of test kit?
https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2021/12/21/know-what-s-legit--fda-list-shows-all-approved-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests
Lists 11home test kits, but if one follows some of the links, https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/in-vitro-diagnostics-euas-antigen-diagnostic-tests-sars-cov-2 suggests 41 tests with FDA EUA. Whether those are all home kits isn’t clear.
Right now, if you are talking about walking into a store and purchasing a test kit, there's only two I know of that are available in the US (Quickvue and BinaxNow). The others all have to be ordered from websites, which means 3-5 days shipping. That's not convenient and not helpful in terms of notifying potential close contacts. Because there were only two providers of tests, and both interested in making a profit, there was no incentive to reduce prices. Quick tests in Europe sell for about $1 each and they are everywhere. In the US, the price is $25 for two tests.
https://www.propublica.org/article/heres-why-rapid-covid-tests-are-so-expensive-and-hard-to-find/amp
We don’t need no vaccine and we don’t need no testing. Heck, the American people are so stupid… how stupid are they?
“To get Pfizer’s pills, the F.D.A. said, patients will need to test positive for the virus and get a prescription from a health care provider, all within no more than five days after their symptoms start. Those requirements may pose serious challenges.
While the agency did not specify which type of test will be needed, over-the-counter rapid antigen tests, which return results within 15 minutes, are expected to be widely used. President Biden announced on Tuesday that the administration is buying 500 million rapid tests to distribute free to the public, but it is not clear if that will be enough to meet what is expected to be very high demand.
There is also a risk that Americans most in need of the pills will refuse them, just as they have spurned vaccines. About half of unvaccinated adults polled by Morning Consult said they would not take F.D.A.-authorized antiviral pills if they got sick with Covid.”
Pretty goddamn stupid.
Here in Los Angeles, cases doubled from yesterday to today and positivity skyrocketed. And la numbers are pretty consistent outside of holiday and day of week effects so this rapid increase is real and scary. Omicron is truly amazingly transmissible. Enough evidence is in that this is not certain.
But also becoming fairly clear that it is significantly less virulent. How much not clear but seems a lot . But, at least short term, i fear and expect not enough to offset how many cases we will have. Maybe not even close .
Even with all the vaccine and natural immunity we have built up since last year ( which still helps some against omicron , and less virulence, I now expect that the peak of this wave will be WORSE than last year. But the peak will hit and subside much more rapidly so total wave will not be as bad .
Buckle down ..going to have a very rough scary few weeks to a month coming..and hope you do not need to go to the hospital now for anything.
But it will be over pretty quick and I think this might be the end of the true pandemic and the start of liveable endemic virus.
I can really see the light at the end of the tunnel. But boy the last bit of the tunnel looks to be a real bumpy ride .
Everybody try to stay safe and if you do get it, try to not panic as it really is very likely to not be a big deal, especially if vaccinated or had covid before. The only real problem coming soon will be the sheer number getting a mostly mild illness all at the same time. Could be serious problems with simply so many out of work at same time even if mild ..some grocery stores may have to close. I plan to stock up for a few weeks tomorrow before too bad and hole up for a few weeks. Not just because of maybe getting covid as worry no groceries will be available at peak.
I wish most would postpone Xmas and new years celebrations this year . I think that is warranted now more than last year . But they won't. And anyone going to a new year's party with a lot of people should just plan and expect to catch it unless had very recent booster or infection. And don't count on being outside good enough with this .
And I have been sceptical of how effective masking and social distancing is in stopping the virus. And especially whether it ends up doing anything long term in changing total number of infections. And stick by that.
But have also said they truly can help to flatten the curve when that is important. And, if ever there was a time to flatten a curve , NOW is it. Even if masking has been unjustified since last year, now it is again .
So I am back with strictly n95 masks and outside too and surgical mask on top. I expect only for a few weeks as the wave peaks fast ( if everyone does and it flattens, will be longer).
Not as much because I am all that worried about getting covid myself, with booster immunity only 2 months old. But have a social responsibility to help flatten this curve .
"There's one other factor at work as well. In Europe, healthcare is run by national governments. They ordered lots of kits at a low negotiated price, so manufacturers ramped up production to provide them. In the US, healthcare is run by no one in particular, so lots of kits weren't ordered. And if they're not ordered, they don't get made."
But somehow the US managed to order lots of vaccine before Europe.
Yeah, Kevin's a bit off on this one. We need truly national, universal healthcare so no American in any state lack access to robust healthcare coverage. But the absence of such a system doesn't preclude the Federal government from coordinating or managing the procurement of vital pandemic supplies. Also, in some "national" healthcare systems (Germany's, Canada's) there's a fair degree of decentralization.
It's a shortage insofar that there's been a surge in demand.
People are going everywhere and gathering together, and a negative test is their proxy for vaccines and other mitigation measures. For instance, NY makes mask-wearing indoors optional if ppl are required to be vaccinated, which I think is a total mistake.
I think they should have instead pledged to mail every American one N95 (or equivalent) mask a week. That's so much more practical for the average American.
Someone here in a previous post mentioned Delta and Omicron existing side by side . IT is an interesting theory
I am not familiar with this website nor do I endorse it over others but the rheory put forth here is interesting
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/is-omicron-a-new-wave-or-a-parallel-pandemic.html
I will produce a number of snips from this article:
But for those used to interpreting pandemic news in terms of “good news” and “bad,” the new variant also raises some disorienting questions about future immunity and the course of the pandemic to come. That is in part because, to this point, the Omicron wave has been defined primarily by breakthrough infections and reinfection, rather than new illnesses among the unvaccinated and unprotected. *************Three-quarters of early U.S. Omicron cases were among the vaccinated or already infected; in Denmark, with some of the world’s best variant surveillance, the share was the same; in other parts of the world, the figure has been 80 percent or higher. If the new variant spread rapidly through the susceptible population, it would mean huge spikes in hospitalizations and deaths, even at much lower levels of severity. But, in theory, at least, it is also those unprotected who would benefit most from exposure to a “mild” strain, acquiring immunity from an encounter with a relatively less-punishing form of the virus. At the moment, however, it does not appear that Omicron is operating that way. Instead, its astonishingly rapid growth appears to be powered by spread among the already protected.***********
.......But while an early consensus formed that the variant was inarguably more transmissible than Delta, a few newer data points suggest, at least, a more complicated picture. In Denmark, it appears not only that previous infection or vaccination offers less protection against infection with Omicron, but that the new variant is in fact spreading faster among those considered “safe” than those we reflexively consider “vulnerable.” And according to a report published Tuesday by the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, “Those who have received three doses of a vaccine and test positive for COVID-19 are more likely to be infected with infections compatible with the Omicron variant compared with those who are unvaccinated.”
This doesn’t mean that Omicron prefers the vaccinated, or that the vaccinated are more vulnerable to infection than the unvaccinated, but that the immune evasiveness of the new variant gives it a much bigger relative competitive advantage over Delta among those with prior immune protection than among the unvaccinated.
.......These are just a couple of data points, compiled in the very early — and not necessarily representative — stages of the new wave. The course may well shift as Omicron spreads further, changing the picture and composition of the wave overall. But the early data does suggest the possibility that, as virologist Trevor Bedford warned several weeks ago, Delta and Omicron may be sufficiently distinct that the growth of Omicron doesn’t mean the end of Delta, but that the two ongoing waves are running basically in parallel.
And if the two variants are competing for hosts in two separate populations, it may only be among the vaccinated or previously infected that the new variant has a significant advantage — and that among the vulnerable unvaccinated, Delta may be able to very well hold its own or even outlast Omicron, continuing to infect people and cause severe illness and death after the Omicron wave has crashed.
...........If you remember with Alpha and with Delta, each of them rapidly replaced previous variants.********Here, now, Omicron is growing very rapidly, but it seems to be growing on top of Delta, rather than replacing it, which suggests that they might be occupying different spaces.******** In some individuals, perhaps Omicron has less of an advantage. Delta may even have an advantage. And if Delta has a small advantage in unvaccinated and unexposed people, what you’ll see is that Delta will continue to circulate in people who are susceptible to both. And if Omicron’s major advantage comes from immune evasion, which is what it looks like, then it’ll have a huge advantage over Delta but mainly in vaccinated groups and those with previous infection
Q/A
Q:Here, the advantage seems enormous.
A: It almost feels like they’re operating in two different immunological compartments, and that the cross-immunity between Omicron and Delta is very low because of that high level of divergence. Whereas with Delta and Alpha, they were kind of in the same immunological compartment, but with some escape.
Q: Let’s focus on the lack of replacement: that we’re basically seeing two waves unfolding at once. First of all, is that true everywhere you’re looking? Because I’ve seen some data that suggests in some places, there has been a more total displacement.
A: I think that’s because they started with very, very small Delta waves. South Africa had hardly any cases of Delta when they got Omicron there.
***************************************************************
One of the problems with all of this is that we are basing our current thoughts on what we have seen before. Alpha, Beta, Delta
This guy is saying Omicron is totally different and he is epidemiologist Deepti Gurdasani of the Queen Mary University of London
Now I'm not sounding any alarms here because I believe at least for myself that I am at peak booster protection so if I do get it I am assured that my case will probably be mild.
But make NO MISTAKE this is NOT your daddy's Delta variant, or alpha or Beta.
And here we have Ohio State University
https://www.studyfinds.org/covid-19-infections-in-deer/?amp
Saying Covid - 3 variants of COVID have been identified in deer and the study suggests, without a lot of explanation that it could be transmitted to humans
{snip}
Prof. Bowman believes if deer function as a viral reservoir for COVID, it would result in one of two likely outcomes. First, COVID would mutate in deer, leading to the transmission of new strains to other species, including humans. Second, the virus could survive in deer unmutated while it simultaneously continues to evolve in humans.
At some point, when we don’t have immunity to the strains infecting deer, those variants would come spilling back into people. As for how COVID got into deer in the first place, study authors speculate that white-tailed deer were infected through contaminated water or another environmental pathway.
Previous studies have found that infections among cats and dogs have a link to human contact, contact with wildlife under human care, and encounters with free-ranging wildlife.
{snip}
Trump got vaccinated and BOOSTED. So did the jerks at FOX News. But every guest they have on their shows seems to spew the same post infection, herd immunity, and alternative treatment lunacy
Congratulations on your pandemic of butt hurt that Biden inflicted on your viewers Fox.
A few random thoughts on this Christmas Eve. I re-visited the NY Times COVID map which is the 7 day moving average per capita
New England and the rush belt getting hit hard. Southeast not so bad outside the major population centers. But in states where you would THINK people would be indoors more like Montana, Utah, Colorado, et al, cases are low. And in southern Nevada, Arizona and west Texas cases are low compared to cities along the same latitude. Pacific NW is also very light.
But there are differences with Omicron we have to keep in mind here.
First the 7 day moving average is out of date. By the time Omicron is detected, you get ill and recover is very short. The 7 day moving average is just an asterisk at this point.
2 - Previous infection and vaccine PLUS booster anytime past 90 days ago should be considered NON vaccinated. The problem here is that we can't take boosters too quickly. Omicron is infecting way too many people in the 90 to 120 day post vaccination group.
So take this scenario. You got sick or vaccinated back in Sept. You got Omicron on Dec 15 and recovered. The Omicron wave peaks and starts to subside but on March 15 you are at 90 days post infection - BUT - like we saw with previous variants Omicron has morphed into 15 different strains by March and you get exposed again. What happens? Do you get sick again?
Or perhaps you get exposed to an animal that is carrying Delta or another individual that has Delta. Does it over whelm your immune system that is geared towards fighting the weaker Omicron? Keep in mind that we've had 52 MILLION cases of COVID here over the last 2 years out of a population of 330 MILLION people - which leaves us with a vulnerable population
The ONLY people who seem to be protected are the recently boosted.
So NEXT year when we have variant Zeta - will the Chinese accuse us of developing this during hinting season? Will we have weaponized it in the dear stands of the countryside?
WE have been so wrong about so many facets of this disease.
Keep your minds open folks - Omicron is so very different in so many ways
Sorry
"And in southern Nevada, Arizona and west Texas cases are low compared to cities along the same latitude"
Should say HIGH compared to other cities along the same latitude
From the land of the NHS: https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/lack-lateral-flow-tests-huge-problem-uk-pharmacies-warn