This weekend we had two days above 3 million. That's terrific performance:
As you can see, I've finally admitted defeat on the original trendline and redrawn it. There's no guarantee that this one will be any better than the old one, but as vaccine production goes up and more people are approved to get it, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we reach 4 million weekend jabs by the middle of next month.
Anyone have an idea of what may have cause the outlier spike last weekend?
Spring Fever?
Absence of cowbell: confirmed.
The following day was unusually low as well, so I suspect it's mostly a reporting artifact. If you look at the seven-day average, there's still a bump, but it's pretty small, and the curve reverts to the trendline within three or four days.
makes sense
I think it was a data dump (ie, more than one day's vaccinations)
If memory serves it was related to delayed reporting of the (then) newly released JJ vaccines.
What is the point of hand-drawing a line through the weekly maxima? Just show a least-squares line for all days. A line on this plot is still exponential growth.
That was my question as well.
"A line on this plot is still exponential growth."
No. The scale on the vertical axis is linear, not logarithmic. So a straight line is linear growth, not exponential growth.
That said, I also do not see the point of drawing a line through the weekly maxima, and that trend through all days would be more meaningful as an indicator of how the rollout is going.
Agreed - rolling 7-day average would seem most useful.
Kevon prefers a Pollyanna polynomial?
That depends.
How fast will Merck production of J&J vaccine will come online and ramp up?
When will AstraZeneca get approved?
Around end of May and end of April for respectively?
Here in MA it is a shit show if you are 50 and healthy. Meanwhile all the 20-somethings in my nephew's circle of friends have been able to schedule shots in Vermont using the CVS site. It says you need to be a resident but they aren't checking anyone's "papers".
OMG I feel your pain, I'm in my 50s too, West Virginia an hour away is now going to vaccinate any resident over 16 starting tomorrow. Virginia is still working on over 65, front line workers and those with health issues. They say they move on the next tiers of critical workers and then everyone so the 50 somethings will have to battle with the youngsters to get shot appointments. ARGH.
Got my first shot on Saturday. It was very easy to schedule on CSV's website. FL now allows all 50+ to get it, which is great, though I admit I may have jumped the line. I don't feel guilty about it though. Appointments are so easy to get in my area I think there must be a glut of vaccine and at this point I would think all the most at-risk people are already scheduled.
I would encourage everyone to push the envelope at this point as far as eligibility goes. My experience matches what I've heard from everyone else. No one is checking any sort of paperwork at all. Not even your ID or insurance card.
Now nice for you. In Virginia they are very strict about checking paperwork so the only loopholes are going out of state to a drugstore that isn't checking residency, apparently some in PA are like that and some in NC are as well. Don't know about WV.
What has happened is that they have sent too many doses to areas where the demand for vaccine is lower and not enough to denser cities and suburbs where folks are desperate to get vaccinated to the point of pulling tricks like driving out of state if they can.
> Weekend Vaccination Rates
Still not correct. Reports of vaccinations are still not vaccinations.