Here's a question for you. Suppose Joe Biden had a change of heart and decided it was essential to broker a ceasefire in Gaza. What could he do?
Is there any pressure he could bring to bear on Bibi Netanyahu to force him to stop fighting? Be creative, but be realistic too and stay within legal bounds. We aren't going to lob a nuke at Jerusalem or ban Israel from the international banking system. And of course, keep in mind that the war is supported by about two-thirds of the Israeli population.
After you're done with that, do the same thing for the other side. What pressure could Biden put on Hamas to stop fighting and release its Israeli hostages?
My take on both these questions is: nothing. Tell me why I'm wrong.
Biden should do theater to sharpen the focus on peace.
Biden can mobilize the US and Western powers to send hundreds of truckloads of aid to Gazans daily for a month. He can personally lead the first convoy with much fanfare and see if he can line up a few other credible leaders leading the convoys, e.g., Pope Francis or leaders of Arab nations. I would think that the leaders of Arab nations would like to look good in front of their own people and appear on the world stage, and there should be some. The effort required to coordinate such a high-profile visit will buy some quiet time.
Amplify credible, non-violent voices for peace on both sides - in Gaza as well as in Israel - by meeting their leaders; If these organizations are run by mothers and women, even better.
Domestically, he and his team should speak plainly, and demagogue the issue, eg., the death of any child - Palestinian or Israeli - is unacceptable, it is barbaric not to allow aid to reach those who are in need etc.
Weaken Benjamin Netanyahu by releasing credible, authentic information - if there is any - about his corruption and incompetence; Ruthlessly exploit the fissures in his coalition so that he gets the message.
At this point, I don't think Hamas has much military capacity to fight, and the heavy diplomatic work that can force Arab nations to take an active part in the peace process - in terms of contributing money, and political capital - is a way to create potential political space - when Hamas is militarily weak.
Engage European partners to start diplomatic efforts with Iran and see what deal could be reached. The alignment of Saudi and Israeli interests against Iran and our unquestioning support of both nations has become a deterrent for peace, and we should start drawing lines in public about setting some limits on our support. The job of Biden is to persuade the US public that it is in our nation's interest to do this.
True, he's not performative enough. Biden may be moving heaven and earth behind the scenes, but loud, visual posturing in front of a camera is the only meaningful gesture. People waving banners and screaming into cameras are so much more effective.
See also Donald Trump. He's losing in one court after another, staving off his final judgement, but all you see on the evening news is him waving his fist and proclaiming victory and defiance. When he finally goes down, the faithful won't know what hit them. I mean, the TV producers could show that reality, but they know it's images of Big Man being Big that keep the eyes on the screen.
He could organize a international humanitarian “airlift” like effort that escorted massive amounts of humanitarian aid into Gaza and make and protect a humanitarian zone in Gaza that the international forces/UN forces control and dare Israel to stop them. Putting international humanitarian forces in Gaza would change the dynamic a bit and would put Biden on the right side of history.
1) There's no airport in Gaza, so a large scale airlift is a non-starter. You simply can't airdrop supplies in sufficient quantities to make a significant dent in the needs of 2 million people.
2) This applies doubly for any sort of international force for protecting any part of Gaza. Aside from the fact that they would immediately become a target for Hamas, you cannot supply them without the cooperation from Israel.
1) airlift was in quotes. Maybe boat lift or truck convoy or use some imagination..
2) maybe they would be targeted but that’s why you bring in massive international forces to protect the safe zone.
Speaking as someone who has been pretty patient with Joe Biden and Israel, I think that there is a lot more he could do to separate our interests from Israel’s, and that would be worth doing even if it doesn’t stop the bloodshed. But I also don’t think there’s anything he can do to unilaterally solve this in the short term or long term.
The ceasefire crew has done very little in my eyes to demonstrate that they have any idea how to address the long term issues in the region.
But Netanyahu seems bent on doing everything he can to discredit the “realist” position in this regard, honestly.
I’m really so sad about all of this.
Bibi knows that anything that even suggests that Biden is successful will hamper the restoration of Trump, his patron.
Yeah. Me too.
Someone posted here In the past few weeks:
“In 50 years Ukraine will be the breadbasket of Europe but in the Middle East Jews and Muslims will still be killing each other”.
Seems pretty hopeless. Both sides act like upping the terror another notch will get the other to finally leave, but everyone knows it won’t work.
Yeah. Just sad.
People think Biden can solve the problem of the war if he'd only do X, which makes him the target of criticism. The war continues, which makes people think Biden is doing nothing to solve the problem of the war, and that draws more criticism. I guess that's "fair" the way we do politics.
But it's wrong to assume Biden is doing "nothing."
Pro-Palestinian scholar Juan Cole:
So when people acknowledge that Biden is doing something, they give Biden credit, right?
Well, not so fast. Cole:
I'm not a fan of all of Biden's messaging since the attacks in October, but I'd take his critics more seriously if they weren't jerks.
Biden should not eat ice cream till there is a Palestinian homeland i guess. Or should not take questions while eating ice cream? And who exactly has Biden incessantly bombed. Sometimes I don't know who I despise more--the fascist right in American politics or the smug, never satisfied left.
I would say, take it a step further: a full-blown hunger strike by Biden until there's peace in the Middle East.
Remember W in "Fahrenheit 911"? "Now watch this drive."
Biden was doing exactly what the media has been demanding for months — getting out in public, especially in venues where younger voters could get a sense of him.You know like all those politicians who are expected to eat corn dogs at State Fairs to show they are just regular people. No one has ever criticized any of them for answering questions at a State Fair. Biden getting ice cream with a talk show host is exactly that kind of event that other politicians get praised for. I guess Biden should just have refused to answer the reporters’ questions, right?
He’s damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. This kind of treatment of Hillary helped Trump get elected.
Biden is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.
Whatever happened to that claim about finding the real -- for real this time -- Hamas headquarters? You know, those miles and miles of tunnels under UNRWA? I guess that's another truth that's become unoperative.
"Hamas HQ" is located where ever Israel wants to destroy stuff. In hospitals? Check! Schools? You betcha! Multistory apartment buildings? Why not? UNRWA HQ? Most definitely; those folks and their aid for the displaced indigenous peoples since 1947 has been a real pain in the tuchus!
"Hamas" will never be "destroyed" because then Bee-bee will face another election. And Hamas will never die, because the will to resist grows with every civilian murder committed by Israel, every child left without a family, or limbs, or eyes -- or dead.
The argument isn't structured, fundamentally, as what Biden or the US could do. That is the second level analysis. The basic analysis is an assumption that Israel has some sort of easy, good option and all that needs to be done is replace the Netanyahu government or change tactics.
For me, I searched for "longest wars" and its a rather depressing set of examples.
Here, Israel has been at war for its entire existence. I don't know what the longest period of zero violence directed at Israeli citizens has been. It might be measured in days or maybe weeks.
Maybe someone else has that stat at hand.
I am old enough to remember when Israel was looked at as the plucky underdog, where Munich and Entebbe happened and the feeling was "look at this country, wow, they are attacked constantly, yet they fight back and win against overwhelming odds."
Now, the Palestinians are the underdogs, but the phrase "underdog" carries with it the assumption that the Palestinians are in a fight, and are fighting. They are fighting, the 1948 war continues.
The calls for Israel to recognize a two state solution seem to miss the reality -- the 1948 war goes on.
The route to no more deaths in the middle east seems clear.
1. There needs to be an unconditional surrender by the Palestinians.
2. Then, the West Bank and Gaza can be more like Quebec, the Basque region, and Catalonia.
3. The difference would be that if there was no violence coming from the Palestinian side, the pressure from the West on Israel would be one-sided and massive, and would have a chance of accomplishing something. At a minimum the West Bank and Gaza could at least end up like current Northern Ireland. And I mean "current" Northern Ireland, 1970s Northern Ireland was barely better than the West Bank and Gaza are now. But the IRA played it much smarter than Hamas, much much smarter. You see? Once IRA stopped violence the pressure on England mounted and now the integration of Ireland is almost a foregone conclusion.
I have never seen a "political wing" of Hamas that actually had the power to trade off no more violence for something. That's the tragedy here.
Its a tragedy. But we are in the middle of a war that started in 1948 and is now coming up on 80 years. Its a a mistake, I think analytically to think this "started" in October of 2023.
A two state solution requires no violence for some period of time. That has never occurred with Israel and the occupied territories.
I fear it may never occur. Israel is going to take out all Hamas infrastructure in Gaza. I see no other option than to occupy it. And the rest of the world and Israel will then have to rebuild it. Meanwhile, actual "Hamas leadership" will be hanging out wherever they hang out and plotting further violent action.
I mean, if you want to be depressed, note that some Egyptian official said, on NPR last weekend, that although they could open the border with Gaza they are not going to because that would be "aiding in Israeli genocide" - man, talk about "with friends like these who needs enemies!" How come Iran isnt operating an airlift to take Palestinians to safety there? Answer - Iran loves this war, can't support it enough. Thanks again, Iran, you m-f-er.
And somehow its Biden's fault, sure, nice fantasy position there.
tl;dr.
I couldn't get much beyond "total surrender by the Palestinians." Because that's always the price, isn't it? Give up. Admit they are "a defeated people." Place themselves at the mercy of Israel, which has never shown anybody any mercy in recorded history.
That's a non-starter. Israel has constantly used its military superiority to casually slaughter, displace, and starve their Palestinian brethren from Day One. Actually, before Day One.
The blind trust needed for your "solution" doesn't exist. It has been killed too many times by Israel, and upheld by the US.
Are you unaware that Israel doesn’t want to have Palestinians as full citizens in their country because they might outvote them?
No, like Bantustans. Possibly worse: the old Union of South Africa repressed the Blacks with militarized police, in the West Bank, it’s the actual military.
1. US can stop sending Israel US weapons, ammo, other armaments (piecemeal or entirely).
2. US can stop providing spare parts / support for US made Israeli planes and weapon systems.
3. US can stop intelligence sharing with Israel.
4. US can pull US military advisors from Israel.
5. US can sponsor UN humanitarian missions to Gaza & West Bank.
6. US can sponsor a UN peacekeeping mission to Gaza.
7. US can have the US military escort humanitarian aid ships to the Port of Gaza.
8. US can undermine the Israeli propaganda efforts by publicizing government misinformation.
9. The US can reposition from strong support of Israeli security to a more ambiguous stance.
10. The US can pull US Navy from the middle east ("middle east oil is no longer a top security priority of the US").
Let's assume that stuff like dropping the UN into an active war zone is reasonable for a second and ask, will any of this actually lead to peace or will it just guarantee Trump's re-election.
Congress would almost certainly pass veto proof legislation to reverse all of these within days/weeks. Any they couldn’t reverse via legislation would be rolled back by Trump after he wins a landslide election.
Biden should ask Hamas to release the babies, old and young women, and men they are still holding as hostages. This all ends once they are released, right?
Since Netanyahu’s announced objective is the “destruction of Hamas”, no, it would not end with the release of hostages.
Josh Marshall suggested to send help to civilians (food, medical needs) by airlift. I am not quite as optimistic about the logistical diffculties as he seems to be: But this would prevent the starving tactics that Netanyahu favors. And Netanyahu could not object. It would undoubtedly save lives and in that sense it would work (always assuming the logistics can be made to work in the almost completely destroyed area).
Further Biden could put a stop on military aid until some conditions are met (e.g. Netanyahu is no longer in office).
He could stop routinely vetoing security council resolutions on Israel's behalf.
He could ban all Israelis living in settlements in the occupied territories from
entering the US, taking the action against the settlers farer than he has.
None of this would work in a short order sort of way. But it would hurt and it would damage Netanyahu's power.
One last point: Israel is on a course of self destruction: This war will damage its international reputation even more and it will make US help in the next emergency (which is as certain as that the sun will rise tomorrow) less probable. This was exactly the strategic goal of Hamas. Israel has reacted to the challenge as reliably as Pawlow's dog. Not smart.
The US is sending weapons to Isreal arent they? Isreal is using these weapons to kill people every day. Biden could stop this transfer of weapons. Biden has been actively using workarounds to avoid the need for Congressional approval of these weapon transfers.
This is blindingly obvious, so much so that the 'what could Biden do' arguments must be in bad faith.
I do realize that Biden has asked Isreal to pinky swear that they will not use these weapons in a bad way. But, c'mon. Lets be serious here.
Vote for UN ceasefire resolutions. Withhold weapons transfers under Leahy Laws or various other laws prohibiting arming a genocide. Recall ambassador. Sanction Israeli officials. Mail a framed portrait of Ngo Dinh Diem to Netanyahu. Obviously will do what Israel wants, so maybe nothing works, but Biden needs to do what's best for the US, and supporting Israel to the hilt is not in our best interest.
Liked “Mail a framed portrait of Ngo Dinh Diem to Netanyahu”.
Israel: a before e, everybody.
Misspelling is real.
Who cares if I can’t spell Armageddon?
It’s not the end of the world!
That thing you're worried about? There's nothing to be done about it, according to me, Kevin Drum.
Biden freezes arms traffic, tells the Knesset every shot fired after this instant permanently reduces the size and scope of future arms shipments, which in any case will not resume before Bibi is gone.
Put aside the firestorm that would cause. You asked for something. This is something.
I don't think there's a leverage point with Hamas for your symmetric request. Maybe someone in the NSA has pictures of Ramezan Sharif in a gimp suit?
Maybe nothing for those specific targets. But suspension of American aid until negotiations resume with Palestinians and some votes against Israel at the UN would go a long way toward convincing the Israeli public that following Netanyahu and people like them will have a high cost. Right now, it has no cost at all.
Regarding Hamas, the same strategy. Terrorist movements thrive where people perceive they have no future. Show them that they can, with economic assistance (take it from Israel's) and assistance in negotiating for business development with the surrounding states. Give them hope, and Hamas will evaporate.
But we won't come anywhere close to either of these since Joe Biden seems to think it is still Golda Meir's Israel. That Israel died with Begin.
Kevin is right. Biden can neither reign in Israel nor bring Hamas to the table.
However...
Stopping aid to Israel would be a big deal. It would establish US aid is no longer unconditional.
Only a two-state solution can bring peace. Israel will only negotiate when international pressure becomes unbearable. Conditional US aid is a step toward peace.
Pressure on Israel is trivial: block aid and/or offer more aid.
Does Hamas really need pressure? Why wouldn't Hamas allow massive humanitarian Aid into Gaza in return for a cease fire and release of hostages?
Also, what about Egypt? Why can't Biden incentive and/or pressure Egypt to allow everyone to leave Gaza?
Also, what about the U.S? Why can't the U.S. hire a couple of cruise ships to evacuate people from Gaza? Or just use bus people through Egypt to the airport. And get 30 to 60 countries, including the U.S., to each take 10,000 people as new citizens.
I suspect it would take a lot to convince Egypt to let in huge number of refugees given they aren’t the richest country plus I suspect they don’t want however many Hamas fighters, sympathetic to the Muslim brotherhood, into the country.
Also if you can find 5 countries to take 10,000 new citizens from Palestine I would be somewhat surprised.
Jeeeezus, it is simple.
Biden can stop selling and giving bombs, bullets and missiles to Israel.
Israel has long since used up its stockpiles. Without ammunition, they would settle for a ceasefire inside of a few days.
How many days would it take Congress to pass veto proof legislation giving aid to Israel?
How many congresspeople does it take to load an arms delivery airplane if the executive stalls sending workers?
To call Biden a helpless bystander as he airlifts 2000 pound bombs, four times heavier than the US permits even itself to use in urban areas, to Israel is unbelievable. I'm surprised no commenters mentioned the Reagan example: he phoned the Israeli PM, called the carpetbombing of West Beirut a "Holocaust", and within an hour the bombing ceased. One might also mention HW Bush's 1991 freezing of loan guarantees as an example of successful leverage. Both these acts were presidential, not congressional.
As for what Biden could do to restrain Hamas or limit its appeal, call for the release of Marwan Barghouti, the only Palestinian with the popularity and standing to negotiate with Israel and in an Israeli jail after an illegal arrest and sham trial for precisely that reason.
There is no magic wand that the U.S. can use on either Israel or Hamas.
Hamas isn't our problem though. Israel is perfectly capable of defending itself against Hamas. The massacre of October 7 only happened because Bibi sent his troops off to help the West Bank 'settlers' harass the West Bank Palestinians, leaving the border with Gaza too lightly defended to protect Israelis and others near the border.
But the level of aid we provide to Israel means that the slaughter engaged in by Israel IS our problem, so we must do what we can, even if all we can do is talk loudly but unambiguously.
The U.S. can say that Israel has avenged the deaths of the October 7 victims twentyfold by now - but against Hamas? No, overwhelmingly against ordinary Palestinians in Gaza who were just trying to survive from one day to the next.
The U.S. can say that it regards this slaughter as a war crime and an attempted genocide.
Now, what can the Biden Administration do?
Can it withhold all further aid from Israel, including that already authorized by Congress, on account of its commission of war crimes and attempted genocide? I don't know. But if it can, it should.
Can the Biden Administration end U.S. recognition of Israel? Given that past GOP Administrations have withdrawn the U.S. from treaties passed by Congress, I would assume so. In which case, it should at least threaten to withdraw our diplomatic recognition of Israel if they keep on doing what they're doing in Gaza.
True, that doesn't actually accomplish anything in and of itself, but it would send a message that Israel is in far deeper shit with the U.S. than it's ever been before.
Would they listen? Who knows. But it would be worth a try.
Josh Marshall, good as always, gift link:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/what-can-the-us-do-to-bring-the-israel-hamas-war-to-and-end/sharetoken/Jmuj9WihaXlh