Let's talk about wonks and hacks. As you know, wonks are the technocratic policy experts, and they're expected to craft proposals that are workable, that get the details right, and provide the biggest bang for the buck. Hacks, by contrast, are mostly interested in figuring out how to get stuff to pass through Congress. It's not that they don't care about crafting good policy, just that they care more about crafting policy that will somehow be acceptable to a few hundred individual egos.
Wonks and hacks are both part of the political ecosystem. Neither is good or bad. In a fallen world, they're both necessary.
So where are the hacks these days? I've read endlessly from wonkish sorts who are outraged that Joe Manchin is killing parts of the climate change bill because he's a slave to the coal industry. And sure, fair enough. But the BBB bill has already been through the wonk wringer and should—should—be well into the hack stage of things. And the first thing a hack would say is something like this:
Are you insane? What's all this coal stuff doing in there? You know that Manchin will never tolerate anything aimed at the coal industry. It's West Virginia, for God's sake.
That would be in private, of course, but I don't get the sense that anybody is even saying this in private. Why not? Maybe you're disgusted by legislative sausage making and maybe you're not, but it's been a reality since the day the first tribe met to argue about who should keep watch over the the first fire. It's just the way H. sapiens works.
I'm a wonk. But that doesn't make me an idiot. Once we've taken our shot we have to turn things over to the hacks. And a good hack will survey the political landscape and tell you what horrible things you need to do to get your wish list passed. This senator wants a means test. That senator wants to make sure home care for the elderly gets more funding. Another one wants to protect coal mining.
And then there will be a bunch of unseemly dealmaking and finally something will pass. It will be maybe 80% as good as the original immaculate bill, and that will be cause for much handwringing. But the 80% bill will be 80% better than nothing and it will be a triumph once it's signed into law.
So: where are the hacks? Like it or not, they're the ones who should be driving the process now. Why do they seem to be missing in action?
For my part, I don't really trust that I know what's going on. I suspect there is a lot of negotiating and back-and-forthing among the principals. Which is to say, Democratic Senators and House leadership.
Because if you don't do climate then nothing else matters because our civilization will be dead.
I agree with your sentiment. But I think that because we have done nothing remotely enough when it would have mattered, our civilization is destined for death.
https://www.google.com/search?q=red+sky+in+california+2020
This isn't just a technical detail.
More people die of air pollution in California in one year, than work in coal mining in West Virginia.
Grr.
i'm not pro-manchin and i certainly am not pro-coal. however, i highly doubt that west virginia coal is the root cause of any deaths in california, if for no other reason that california burns little in the way of the black stuff, probably none of it coming from west virginia. secondly, the number of people directly employed in coal mining vastly understates its economic importance and misses entirely its cultural and historical significance within the state. you want west virginians to give up coal, try coming at the problem from their perspective rather than another gawd damned outsider meddling in their affairs.
This bill's climate change provisions, while welcome, hardly equate to the difference between civilization's survival and destruction.
How many times has your exact response been why we have done nothing? And if you look at the models where we do nothing.... we are really fucked.
Climate is never going to be done until it’s too late. I don’t like that, but I’m a realist, and in a country struggling to convince people to take a vaccine to save their own lives, I cannot see any way to get those same people to take sufficient action to save other people’s lives in the future. Not even their own children/grandchildren. If the pandemic has shown us anything, it’s that in America everyone is always on their own and collective action is not possible.
What do you mean by "do climate"?
If you mean "do everything that's in the House version of the reconciliation bill", then we're doomed...because there's no way the senator (*any* senator) from West Virginia is going to vote for that.
Now, what appears to be on the table is doing *some* of the climate initiatives in the House bill. The question progressives have to ask is "is it worth doing that"?
That's a pretty romantic characterization of congress these days. In fact, using your definitions, there are but a few wonks (the ones writing the legislation) and everyone else is a hack. And the hacks aren't offering suggestions to make the wishlist of wonks politically feasible. They're just trying to kill the bill, because any victory of a Democratic president/congress is completely unacceptable. It's not about policy, it's about politics - nihilistic politics of the contemporary GOP.
If these creatures you call "hacks" actually exist, I'm sure they don't work in the spotlight. They will be operating behind the scenes, horse trading, making deals. Making sausage, you might say.
I blame the goo-goos. Just finished the new bio of Jimmy Carter, who set unrealistically high standards, but came to learn he had to allow his aides and cabinet officers to do some dirty work to get legislation passed.
There's also the centralization of power in the House and Senate leaders--back in the day (1986) Rostenkowski could do deals across the aisle and with Baker and his aides. Baker and Rosty were the "hacks" as you call them.They gave us a good tax reform act. Or Ted Kennedy working with the Bush admin on the education act in 2001. Another hack.
Yeah, it's definitely a problem that there are basically no Republican "hacks" any more. (Points to Biden for trying to revive the "hackish" talents of the GOP with the bipartisan infrastructure bill.)
This would be a better reaction if that coal stuff wasn't killing people.
Or if Manchin was giving a steady target, instead of blowing up about random stupid things like means testing the child-tax-credit so no coal miners will get it.
Whatever negotiations are happening seem to be quite opaque. So who knows, maybe the hacks are busy at work. But I'm not sure that Kevin is characterizing the situation correctly. Specifically, I haven't seem reporting indicating that Manchin is seeking to specifically protect the coal industry; it seems to be fossil fuels in general. In a way, that makes sense--coal isn't that big even in WV anymore and it's dying by competition with other fossil fuels. Moreover, natural gas production is pretty big in WV. Anyway, I've seen little evidence that Manchin's stance on climate change policy is subject to much "hacking," as it might be if it really were all about coal. I think the problem here is that there is a broad consensus within the Democratic Party about most things, but the margins are so narrow that a few outliers can gum up everything. In the Senate, Manchin and Sinema are very far out of step with their colleagues, even moderate ones like Tester. Manchema seem to be dug in, and it's not clear what the "hacks" could do about it.
In a way, that makes sense--coal isn't that big even in WV anymore and it's dying by competition with other fossil fuels.
Right. But do Joe Mancin's constituents know that?
Manchin would probably be on firm ground if he thought: "Most West Virginians, like most Americans, are ignorant as to the fine points of public policy; so, if I'm seen as protecting the coal industry, they're going to think I'm protecting West Virginian jobs and families."
Manchin has survived a long time and won quite a few elections in a place that has long been growing increasingly hostile territory for Democrats.
This is not up to some faceless "hacks" who work out details according to accepted rules of compromise, it is up to Manchin and Sinema, and they are simply being opaque and intractable. Sinema in particular may actually intend to kill the BBB bill entirely, or nearly so. Biden can hope that public and other kinds of pressure will make them come around eventually if he keeps things in the public eye.
It's possible Sinema wants this. Or, similarly, it's possible she initially had hoped to generate headlines of "Sinema saves taxpayers $1.3 trillion" but now she's simply cheesed-off at the progressive wing and has decided to blow the whole thing up (or, she's convinced she's going to get a serious primary challenge no matter what at this point, and so figures her smartest move is to double down on maverick-ness, or even run as an independent).
I understand the rage of progressives, but I'm not sure it was the best strategy to use against her obstructionism.
She's simply cheesed off that's she's blown off all public town halls and done zero response to any constituents?
Manchin, for his part is doing what HE THINKS best for his constituents which includes making sure coal mining doesn't go completely away. Problem is it never will because the world needs coal for heating, electrical generating and steel production for the foreseeable future. Manchin is shoveling crap against the tide but coal's days are numbered.
As Crissa pointed out more people die in CA from air pollution than in coal mining accidents but give Newsom credit for being a governor who can, did and was not afraid to take action. Only time will tell if the was right or not but small engines are dirty engines. My problem with his initiatives is that he is controlling those engines used for WORK but letting the "play engines" - outboard motors, off road bikes etc go unscathed. But this is the direction CA chooses - it's all about recreation, and fun.
As for climate change? No, it's not life or death - not yet. It's a natural occurrence that we helped along and the speed of that change will be faster than the last time but we are still talking thousands of years.
I say we get what we can get NOW. Let the republicans seethe, let the economy recover and let the working class prosper. Get more DEMs elected. Then put in place, NOT a one time bill, but an ongoing budgetary outlay for addressing climate change. We owe it to our great great grandchildren to do this. We will NEVER see the results of this but it is needed. If in the future some sort of miracle technology comes forward that eats the carbon build up then hooray for us - but the climate will still change.
Prior to the 50s climate was not an issue. Yet the industrial revolution was already a century old. What changed to make it "life or death" - the worlds greatest calamity? Population growth. If the population begins to drop THAT would be the biggest thing we could do to help Mother Earth.
It may happen but I doubt it.
I am not giving up. I have severely cut back on my energy use and at the same time I grow a lot of what I eat now. It's still not enough, but its a start. My current car gets 3X the mileage out of a gallon of gas than my first one did - and its got more bells and whistles than I can use.
We will get there we need to start. But one bill will not do it. One country will not do it. One generation will not do it. Manchin wants the market to close down coal. That will happen, eventually.
Joe Manchin is NOT the villan here
Climate change most assuredly IS "life or death" already for many inhabitants of this earth already - animals, forests, water supplies, and yes, some humans as a result.
It isn't just a problem for our grandchildren.
nothing in the BBB will change ANY of that.
your scare tactics are over stated.
Want to solve the die off of animals forests and the drainage of water supplies? I most certainly do. I also want to go back to the 1950s - air was clean, people were nicer. It was a pleasant time. We had NO EPA, no catalytic converters on cars and many of them spewed smoke and pollution.
The difference is this:
https://images.app.goo.gl/co6VxqM4SKjckBvF6
Our own graph of population growth in the US mimics this global population growth. Now, translate THAT number into something more down to earth. Not only has the GROSS number of cars grown along with our population but the per capita number has doubled as well.
All those people have to be fed and clothed. Our food needs to last longer so we use fossil fuel based plastic packaging. We need more clothing so we turned to fossil fuel based synthetic materials.
Now, critics will say well we can go all electric with our vehicles. We sure can! But what is the NET affect of that? We will NEED much more electrical generating power and we cannot supply it all from wind and solar. So, pick your poison - nuclear power with its long term waste problem - OR - oil and natural gas with its IMMEDIATE pollution problem.
THEN add into that the increased mining for lithium, cobalt and nickel that would have to be done to supply batteries for all those vehicles.
We need to decrease our population world wide. We could do THAT far more easily than we could affect climate change from any other program we propose now. But we won't.
The problem is us. There's too many of "us".
And Joe Manchin's constituents would benefit more from this legislation, it is is passed, than by his intransigence. The items in it poll well in his own state.
really? climate initiatives paid for by CLOSING LOOPHOLES in tax law enjoy about 75% approval by not only WV voters,but by voters nationwide. once you talk about NEW taxes support drops below 50%.
Your statement is straight up false.
No one likes NEW taxes Crissa. Not even a majority of Dems
The problem with polling WV voters is that they LIKE portions of the plans but it doesn't translate into votes. Manchin sticks out like a sore thumb that way. Good for DEMs in general but bad for policy.
Manchin is a conservative DEM from a conservative republican state. Everything he does should be measured against that.
BBB has to be cut down to move forward. Cut the environmental portion down along with the total cost. Remember, ALL of the BBB plan is NEW spending whereas the BIP is only $0.6T of new spending.
It will become the new "Obamacare" - so popular even the republicans do not want to get rid of it.
Manchin, for his part is doing what HE THINKS best for his constituents which includes making sure coal mining doesn't go completely away.
You don't know that. It's entirely possible he doesn't give a rat's ass about his constituents. Given the explosion of despair deaths in WV — and how this positively cries out for a strongly strengthened safety net — I'd say my suspicion is more accurate than your assumption about Manchin's thought process.
Which would mean he's not doing what he thinks is best for West Virginians. Rather, he's doing what he thinks is best for Joe Manchin's 2024 campaign. In fairness that would make him pretty similar to most politicians.
Manchin's personal fortune depends on fossil fuel. I see no reason to think he gives a flying fuck at a rolling donut about his constituents.
I said more die from air pollution (in California in one year) than work in the coal industry in West Virginia. Just work.
I also pointed out that most coal workers wouldn't get the child tax credit, either.
I could also point out there's more jobs installing solar in West Virginia than coal miners...
Manchin isn't looking for 80% of BBB. He's looking for 0%.
Because that is the result that will be most popular with his constituents. Democrats have been framing the election result all wrong right from January 5. They didn't "take back the Senate" at all. There are 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 4 independents. Fortunately, the latter all caucus with the Dems - for the moment - allowing them to take a precarious majority position. They should have been grateful to get anything at all through Congress, not dreaming impossible dreams of a $6 trillion New Deal.
Vog46-
"As Crissa pointed out more people die in CA from air pollution than in coal mining accidents"
Except that's not what Crissa said:
"More people die of air pollution in California in one year, than WORK in coal mining in West Virginia."
I'll assume you simply misread it, rather than purposely misquoting it to support your mistaken conclusion
"Joe Manchin is NOT the villan here."
Yes. Yes, he is.
he votes 80%with democrats. he is far better than a republican which gives us McConnell as leader again.
forget the climate initiative in THIS 50 GOP 48 DEM, and 2 IND senate.
You get the deal you can, not the deal you want
He's not giving us a deal, his demands have been nonsensical.
Sinema hasn't any demands other than 'no'.
Joe has always been against huge spending increases. He has been consistent in opposing the climate change portion of the BBB plan. Sinema for her previous belonging to the Green Party is still a quirk.
The DEMs do NOT have a majority yet everyone believes they do. With both houses of Congress this closely split we have no wriggle room. When do things get done? When one party has enough of a majority to allow for SOME party members to cast a NO vote on certain legislation in order to maintain some decorum of independence from their party. Susan Collins expressing "concern"? Does that ring a bell?
Otherwise ONLY when capitulation occurs does something happen. And who pays the price? Think of it this way. Portions of the BBB plan are popular in WV - BUT - Joe Biden is way underwater in WV. If nothing gets done WV goes for a republican president again and Manchin may win re-election. One is anticipated the other not.
Whats more important? Keeping what gains you have in the Congress and the White house? Or getting a tiny portion of what is needed to address climate change?
The key to passing ANYTHING remotely resembling progressive legislation is to have a large enough majority to allow conservatives enough shade to vote against it.
Kenloval said it best above:
"Democrats have been framing the election result all wrong right from January 5. They didn't "take back the Senate" at all."
We need to deal with that reality and get what we can get. Obama realized it when he dropped portions of the ACA from the legislation.
Want it done? Pass a smaller bill now, claim victory, let Manchin and Sinema claim victory. Win 3 more seats in the senate THEN pass the climate portion. Then let Mancin say "I voted against this because it's bad for WV company's" and let Sinema say "I voted against it because we spend too much"
Politics here in the United States is all about hypocrisy.
I agree with others that we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. But if public reports are even slightly accurate, it's not a case of 'maybe 80% as good as the original immaculate bill'. Manchin and Sinema firstly want the total spend cut by more than 50%. Then they object to different items in it, and each has a right of veto. Consequently it's more like maybe10-20% as good as the original immaculate bill. And it's by no means a sure thing that progressives will be willing to endure the rage of their constituents to pass even that 10-20%, if there's nothing in it that excites them very much.
"Manchin and Sinema firstly want the total spend cut by more than 50%. "
I seem to remember that the original total was 7 trillion.
Well let's accept that lots of people in the party took that as an ambit claim, and that $4.5 trillion was the genuine target for the two bills combined. If it ever emerges that Sinema and Manchin got enough Republicans to vote for the 'bipartisan bill' of which they are so proud by giving a nod and a wink that they'd kill the reconciliation bill, they will deserve to be jeered every time they appear in public for the rest of their lives.
Incorrect. But you will learn the hardway. Do I have to say this again??? Biden asked for 270 billion. It did not contain Medicare Expansion nor "Climate Initiatives" that caused the issues.
I can't help it the House's committee lied. But they did.
correct.
THE BIP contains "only" about $0.6B in NEW spending. Cut the BBB plan to $1.5B in ALL new spending.
Sit back, watch the economy grow - gain 2 seats then pass a bigger bill
In 2024 the Dems have a HUGE problem in trying to hold the Senate
Maybe the true believers fired the hacks, like they did David Shor? If you shut down anyone who says things you don't like, then you have no warning mechanism in place until reality bites you in the ass.
I'm a hack and I'll tell you what the answer is: nothing. That's what you can expect to get from Manchin and Sinema. They've both as much as said so. You can't craft a BBB bill to their liking because neither of them want it. Their fuck you to Biden and the rest of their party is clear and unequivocal.
The reason there's no evidence of hacks at work is because there's nothing for them to hack at. Democrats got all excited when they won those two seats in Georgia last winter. Thought they had a majority in the Senate. It's been clear for more than a while now that was never true.
Incorrect. Manchin and Biden already have a deal. One that isn't too far off Biden's long running agenda. Maybe you need to see better.
Where?
If you mean Biden's long running agenda to capitulate to Republicans as hard as possible until they win majorities in both the House and Senate at midterm, I see that all just fine. Likewise his deal with Manchin to make sure the collapse all goes smoothly, that's fairly obvious as well.
I quite agree, Manchin and Sinema are playing this game because neither wants the BBB bill to pass but there is a political penalty for saying the quiet part out loud.
Where are the hacks? They have been driven off by the forces of purity over realpolitik.
? Aren't we already many weeks into the hack approach? The bridges and roads part of the deal was already split off into a separate bill in order to give the Rs something to vote for. The rest of the plan was supposed to be Democrats only (as Real Republicans can't be caught voting for money for families or kids). But the Afghanistan mess - in the media's view it was a mess, that is -- gave the "moderates" a chance to do some virtue signaling to Republicans/Independents along the lines of "See, I'm not a big spender who supports that incompetent Biden guy!". So I'd say things have been quite hacky already for many weeks.
Sinema has said repeatedly she won't vote for any reconciliation bill until the House has passed and Biden has signed "her" bipartisan bill. Since there are absolutely no grounds to suspect the House (or Biden) might refuse to pass that bill in tandem with a reconciliaton bill, as they have said all along was their intention, Sinema's objective can only be either to tank the reconciliation bill completely, or to be the sole arbiter of what goes in it.
No amount of hacking can overcome that kind of insufferably self-centred egotism.
I came across this somewhere--and just checked it...
WV gets 91% of it's electricity from coal-fired power plants
https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=WV
The number of coal jobs dropped like a rock a while ago due to automation. But power plants employ people and WV sends power to other states. So getting rid of coal means those jobs go away. And that scares people a lot more than the potential for new jobs in renewable energy.
There are more jobs today in West Virginia installing solar than all coal jobs.
Crissa
That is correct. but think of it another way
How many jobs per KWH created? Solar has more jobs but you employ less and generate MORE with coal. Coal and fossil fuel are also both mature industries
Whats more efficient? From a business standpoint it's coal generating.
And what happens when solar is built out? ALL those solar jobs go away.
They will become the coal miners of today. A dying breed.
No, the panels dont last forever and there are maintenance issues. There will be new homes. It will just become a mature industry with less fluctuation in number of employees. No idea if this will be less or more than the coal jobs but would guess more.
Steve
Sometimes you have to walk away from a bad deal. You can argue, if you want, that any help for the old, sick, and poor is worth providing. Ok. Sure. We do that already. If those who would benefit from this generosity could be counted on to provide political support, I'd say go for it. But there is little evidence that they ever will.
I am sympathetic to the desires of progressives. They are on the right side of decency and morality, but they are to few to matter. They have my permission to stand on principle and sink the whole deal.
Biden, we were told over and over again, was a bipartisan centrist. Democrats didn't really believe, we were told over and over again, that radical progressive change was desirable. I don't know why Biden abandoned this centrist vision.
Defund West Virginia.
Progressive policy from the DEMs is JUST as self centered as Sinema and Manchin.
WE have big hearts as a country. We have helped just about everyone. WHO - (World Health Organization) is against the US giving out COVID booster shots. Why? They want us to give out vaccine supplies world wide to get everyone at least one shot to help with the pandemic.
It's a noble gesture on their part. They take a global approach to the problem.
So, let's restart our global economy with THAT nobility in mind
We grow all the food we can and distribute it to the poor in the world
We extract every resource we can from Mother Earth to distribute to poorer countries.
What happens?
Climate still changes - people will still die.
It becomes every man (or nation) for themselves.
We look at Europe with admiration.
They get 35% of their power by renewable sources. 40% from fossil fuels and 25% from nuclear power plants.
We get about 9% from nuclear power, and about 12% from renewable sources.
So, lets build more Nukes along with Wind farms. Lets be "like" the EU.
When you think in terms of power consumed - the United States consumes more power than any other country in the world.
Lets then change our quality or life here in the US. Neither will work. No one wants more nukes, no one wants to change the quality of American life.
Oil and coal are cheap and plentiful. I wish they hadn't been as cheap or as plentiful. If they were, our population probably wouldn't have exploded as a result and our demands for food, power and water would not be so great.
@Vog46:
Despite your "I'm right and the rest of you are wrong" stance and your patronizing tone, there is a grain of truth in your position, and it's going to be deadly going forward. Americans in general are the most comfortable people in the history of the world, and we refuse to make a group decision to change our living standard, because Democracy and Freedom (the rest of the world won't do it either, for their own reasons). I predict there will be no global reckoning with climate change. The 2°C barrier will be breached, sea levels will rise, droughts, floods and famine will sweep the earth, and we will have a new living standard whether or not we agreed to it.
Or maybe we could just start painting the earth
But, Kevin, if the hacks are working in private, how would you even know? If there are leaks, it wouldn't be really private, right?
I know that at least on one issue in the BBB, the private discussions are taking place. We can only hope that tempers will be tempered.
Totally agree Kevin. Reminds me of some meetings I had with some GOP state leasers during the Tea Party era. We were working on some health care issues and also talking over marijuana reform. After the work was done we just sat around and gabbed. A lot of the GOP state leadership was, unofficially, pissed off at the Tea Party people. They understood that in politics getting 80% of what you wanted is a win, but the Tea Party people were pushing the "no compromise" stuff. Meant they couldn't pass any legislation at all.
Steve
The house is burning, putting out 80% of the fire will afford us escape, I'm just wondering which house we move into.
Cindy Hensley Mc Cain or Mitt Rmoney might have a spare.
You're not playing along with my metaphor!
I am afraid it is not that simple; E.g. Manchin wants to means test the child tax credit, i.e. give it only to the poor. As Kevin himself has explained the "hacks" would want things that benefit the middle class. This will be good for reelection in West Virginia as well as anywhere else. Does Manchin really think his stupidity about an "entitlement society" will move more votes than some concrete amount of money?
Another point: It is just not true that for example Bernie Sanders or AOC have their heads up their backsides. Listen to how they communicate before throwing slanders of this kind around. And after all they are fighting for the President's bill, not their own in the first place.
Last point: Kevin said the final bill would be 80% of what the wonks propose. I anticipate 25% for this particular bill. It will be a stinker that will be completely useless come November next year. No wonder the progressives are having hard time conceding; their "hacks" are aware of this problem.
Pingback: Democrats are the masters of getting no credit for their good works – Kevin Drum