Yes, I know there's an election today. I'm not deliberately ignoring it, but unless something big happens I just won't have anything to offer until the polls close and results start coming in. Until then, the Prime Directive remains in force: the election might or might not be close, but inherent uncertainties in polling mean the results are wholly unknowable and nobody can make a meaningful prediction.
Except for me. Kamala Harris is going to win the presidency. Democrats will win the House. Republicans will win the Senate. Satisfied?
Completely satisfied.
I hope Allan Lichtman is correct again. He's 10 for 10, 2000 has a big asterisk. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/video/lichtman-harris-prediction-trump-election-digvid
Yeah, he has a number of interviews worth watching.
I also think Michelle Steel is going down in flames.
Ted Cruz looking for a new job would be the best Christmas present ever.
👍👍👍👍👍
Just as a rule of thumb, never trust a man with a white beard and no white in his head of hair (if it can be called that).
This reminded me of my late grandma, who used to say, "Trust no man--not even your brother--with hair one color, and mustache another."
How I think tonight will go,
Schroedinger's grave,
https://c8.alamy.com/compde/fxemtr/grab-von-nobelpreistrager-erwin-schrodinger-in-st-oswald-alpbach-kirchdorf-tirol-osterreich-fxemtr.jpg
It really feels like Harris has this, for all practical purposes, the GOP doesn't have a ground game. I also think Trump's demeanor today suggests he's seen some real bad numbers.
"Trump's demeanor today suggests he's seen some real bad numbers"
Trump is a moron, innumerate, delusional, and surrounded by toadies, yesmen, and weirdos. Trying to second-order divine election forecasts from Trump's demeanor depends on him having (a) better information than what is public, (b) having that information accurately delivered to him, and (c) having the capacity to comprehend that information and act accordingly.
None of that is at all likely. Not to criticize (seek solace wherever you like!) but I doubt it's worth the mental effort to try to figure out reality based on how Trump is acting.
At any rate, we'll know in a few hours for sure. Fingers crossed that we put the boot into Trump good and proper.
+1
yup. trying to read the tea leaves via anything trump does or says is a fool's errand. like trying to solve a differential equation by listening to a dog bark.
Without the Senate its hollow victory. Enduring the Mitch McConnell precedent, she'll appoint zero judges and all but "Red" bills from the House- DOA.
Enjoy your veto pen Kamala
Dems have got to figure out how he could get this close
It will keep fascism out. That is not "hollow" at all.
+1
+1
I fear a sequel of Obama’s last 2 years. So we keep racism out . . . for 4 years, but unless we get the Senate back in 2026, come 2028 GOP will campaign on Kamala have gotten nothing done, and just like Obama>Trump, the GOP gets the trifecta. You think voter suppression is bad now?
Many pols are successful with "Making them Afraid, and giving them Someone to blame", but I'm astounded that after 8 years, 48% are willing to overlook the arrogance, lies, bigotry, sexism, racism, failed businesses, corruption, all for wild promises and allegations made with zero proof. Or maybe just for spite. idunno
Be absolutely thrilled to be wrong.
She won't need her veto pen since the house is in the hands of democrats. As with most years with a split congress, they will pass funding bills and not much else.
How he could get this close is that Dems have all but abandoned the white working class and the middle class in general in favor of placating banks and other big FIRE sector donors. If they don't do something about Private Equity and institutional ownership of single family homes, they are toast in 2028.
The Federal Government has no authority to limit, restrict, or oversee ownership of single-family homes by "private equity". None.
The government is already up to its eyeballs in "guaranteeing" single-family mortages for all and sundry.
So if Democrats' future depends on them sucessfully embargoing private equity from the housing market, then they are toast. And the benighted American voter who demanded that they do so abundantly deserve the reaming they'll be getting from the MAGA Nazis.
You don't know what you're talking about.
+1,000
Not having to see his fat orange face, hear his voice and all the bullshit coming out of his pie hole would be a good. Not having to worry about the ACA being shit canned for another 4 years, and not having across the board tariffs and another $5 T of tax cuts for the wealthy would be good. Not surrendering Ukraine to Putin and having NATO dismantled would be a significant relief
I will thank Lucifer if it happens tonight.
The Senate may be the biggest downer for what might be an otherwise great day for Dems.
Grover Cleveland is getting mentions today because of the two non-consecutive terms precedent that Trump could match if he somehow eked out a win. The more likely Cleveland precedent to keep in mind, though, would be Kamala winning the White House, Dems winning the House, and the GOP picking up the Senate. The last time that an incoming Dem president was elected while Dems did not win both houses of Congress in the same election was a long time ago. All the way back to Cleveland's first presidential term and the election of 1884. That year, Dems kept their majority in the House while Republicans kept their majority in the Senate. Cleveland was the first post-Civil War Dem to win the White House, and just one of two Dems to win between the Civil War and the Great Depression.
Dems winning the Senate this year would be a surprise but I don't think it's outside the scope of reasonable possibilities. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
Senate map in 2026 is more favorable for Dems. That would be something, if Dems got their trifecta midterm.
our definitions of hollow are wildly at odds
I'm going to go with Harris by 4 in PA, and thus taking the blue wall states. Based mainly on 56% women voting early in PA., about 4 points above 2020. So, very rough guess.
We'll see when the real results start coming in around 9 or 10 PM. Maybe a bit earlier from VA.
If I remember correctly, early returns from VA are from red parts of the state. The blue areas take longer for some reason that I don't understand.
I like your prediction for PA. Having voted earlier today in the eastern part of PA, I can say the turnout appears to be strong, and we saw long lines at the polling places where college students were voting. Mr. Dobbs might just have had a hand in this.
Great! I'll just add that Colin Allred is going to beat Ted Cruz.
It's such a relief to know all this.
This would be a perfectly acceptable result to me. I'd rather run the table but honestly I'd gladly lose the House of Representatives as well if we Kamala can win the White House.
I just really really want this Trump fever to break. I think it's all a cult of personality and there is only one personality that fits the bill. I don't get it. No one here gets it. But for whatever reason, that old fat orange dumbass convicted felon has some kind of secret sauce that makes a lot of people really love him and want to do terrible things at his bidding. There is not another Trump waiting in the wings. No one out there has that secret whatever the hell it is. This is Trump's last shot. If he loses, it's over and it's over for good.
That's my prediction.
Great points real rob. FWIW, my take on Trump's secret sauce is rather narrow, but its that Trump has always said whatever pops into his head, as long as he senses (and his senses are good) that his audience will accept it. For example, he would not, and did not, censor himself in terms of accusing some people he does not even know of eating cats.
This is not easy to pull off without people thinking you are an idiot. Note all the other Repubs who try, like DeSantis and Vance.
But his base loves him because they wish that they could say anything they want without consequence.
I hope I am right because it would mean a partial return to sanity when the orange doofus shuffles along.
lf the dems lose the house and harris wins the election, a) what will speaker johnson do on jan. 6? b) how can harris have any shot at actually governing, assuming johnson (or whomever) actually abides by the law and the will of voters rather than throwing it to the house?
Take some solace in the fact that the electoral votes are re-counted in the joint House and Senate, all members present and the current Vice President of the United States presiding. That would be President Elect Harris.
Johnson wouldn't have much power. If they even voted him in as Speaker.
Jeez, you folks are going to jinx her!! No predictions till it’s over please. I’m also afraid of black cats and I don’t walk under ladders
Well drat, I was looking forward to Kevin’s traditional, early call of Florida 🙂
satisfied? nope. i'm greedy. i want the senate as well.
from your lips (or fingertips) to god's ears (or eyes)!
It isn't tonight but what happens in the House between now and Inauguration day, that's the drama.
It will be the new House (and Senate I suppose) which is involved in confirming the results of the Presidential election no?
Yes, but it's Republican until then, and what if it remains Republican?
Kamala's going to win in a landslide.
And, yeah, Senate's going D as well. Tester will win, as will Brown. Allred will take down Cruz. And it's even possible that Mucarsel-Powell will win in Florida, although their vote suppression machine there is very strong.
Not to mention Nebraska.
Much as I like "tension" between the Legislative and the Executive, I think I would prefer the Democrats to have the Senate, and the Republicans to have the House.
Because confirmations...