The New York Times reports that Latino support for California's governor was high when he was first elected in 2018:
But as Gov. Gavin Newsom tries to prevail in a recall election in a matter of days, the very Latino voters he is relying on appear to be disengaged and ambivalent about the prospect of his being ousted from office.
....For many Latino voters, the mixed feelings stem from a continued struggle with the pandemic, as they face higher infection and death rates, as well as unemployment. For others, there is a deep disconnect with the Democratic Party and Mr. Newsom himself, a multimillionaire Napa Valley winery owner whom they view as aloof and distant.
This represents a great mystery. As a Californian I have read at least half a dozen different versions of this story, and all of them offer different explanations for Newsom's drop in Latino support. Nobody really seems to know for sure what's going on, which is odd since there's no lack of reporting about Latino communities in California.
COVID-19 is a plausible, though not certain, explanation. Latinos contracted COVID-19 at rates 2-3x higher than whites or any other ethnic group, and crucially it struck young Latinos at unusually high rates. On the other hand, the death rate from COVID-19 was only slightly higher among Latinos than among other groups.
Do Latinos actively blame Newsom for this, or are they just generally unhappy about the pandemic and have lost faith that it matters much who's running the state? That's unclear, and it highlights a weird disconnect in American politics right now. Newsom is generally 
given good marks for his handling of COVID-19, but he's unpopular. But in red states where governors have pointedly refused to take the pandemic seriously and death rates have skyrocketed, governors remain popular.
My take on this is twofold. First, of course, is the culture war aspect: lots of red-state voters care more about their governors sticking it loudly to the man than they do about case rates and deaths. Second, in many states, people care more about keeping stores open and jobs available than they do about fighting the pandemic with annoying regulations. You can tag this as good policy being punished because it causes hardship, or you can say that it simply represents different preference curves in different states. Either way, it doesn't seem to have done Newsom any good.
Of course this is just one theory for why Latinos seem to have soured on Newsom, and the results aren't in yet anyway. Maybe when the ballots are actually counted, Latinos will break for Newsom at their usual rate.
In the meantime, Californians should be aware that the recall is exactly one week away. If you have a mail-in ballot—which you should—vote NO and send it in now. Don't put it off and then forget about it until the last minute, when you risk a chance of it not counting. All you have to do is mark one box (or two if you care about the bottom part of the ballot) and seal it up. It takes about one minute.
POSTSCRIPT: But what about the bottom part of the ballot, which lists all the candidates who are competing for the governorship if the recall succeeds? Who should you vote for?
I honestly don't think it makes much difference, but for the record I marked my ballot for San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer. I didn't give this a great deal of thought beyond the fact that Faulconer is non-insane, and among California Republicans that's a rare commodity these days.
"I honestly don't think it makes much difference, but for the record I marked my ballot for San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer. I didn't give this a great deal of thought beyond the fact that Faulconer is non-insane, and among California Republicans that's a rare commodity these days."
But the Republican Party needs to be punished for allowing insanity to run rampant through its ranks... and one way to do that would be to not reward them for recalling a governor who has done nothing seriously wrong (except going one time to a maskless party during the pandemic). Nobody anywhere who cares about sanity in government leadership should ever be voting for a person with an R after their name until the people that run the R party demonstrate that they won't use their collective power to destroy democracy, spread plague, and/or generally act evilly.
+1 precisely.
Amen. Voting for a Republican is the most insane thing anybody could do in this recall. Whatever value Kevin offers as a blogger, he completely disqualifies himself when it comes to politics and political advice.
Faulconer remains a member of the California Republican Party. That in itself means he can't be described as "non-insane." But aside from that, he has no chance to win the replacement election. Why throw away your vote on him? If the polls mean anything, it's a two-person race between one Democrat (Paffraff) and one Republican (Elder). Instead of voting for the Democrat, you're voting for an also-ran whose campaign has already flat-lined? That is insane.
Even if you have concerns about Paffraff, he is a Democrat who would be governing for the next year in partnership with the Democratic supermajority in the state legislature. Any Republican (Elder or Faulconer) would be working hard to sabotage all progressive efforts to help people in the state. Faulconer might be a little quieter about it than Elder, but either one would mean chaos for state government at a time we cannot afford it.
Paffraff = Paffrath. Clearly not a household name.
Paffraff is on the *second page* of the ballot and listed as a "Financial Educator / Analyst", which is hardly inspiring.
The first Democrat on the ballot, fourth name down, Brandon M. Ross, is listed as a "Physician / Attorney", which for cred, is pretty good. (He runs a hair-restoration clinic.)
People who know nothing about the Democratic candidates on the ballot - which is an overwhelming majority - will look and mark the first Democrat they see in the list. That's Brandon Ross. He should have been promoted by the party as the go-to Democrat.
As it stands now, the top two Democrats are Paffraff and McGowan - listed as a "Cannabis Policy Advisor" (!)
Ballots in California have the order of candidates randomized in different orders in different precincts. The “first Democrat” on your ballot is not the “first Democrat” on ballots of people in other precincts.
Kevin Paffrath has a financial advice YouTube channel with millions of followers. On one poll in July, he lead among all the candidates of all parties (or none).
I’ve never heard of Brandon Ross.
Absolutely agree.
The Democrats screwed up by not having an "insurance policy" nobody-special Assembly Democrat on the second ballot. As it stands now, none of the candidates listed as Democrat are well known and the suggestion to leave that ballot blank essentially turns it into a Republican primary. I will vote NO on recall and for Kevin Faulconer on the second ballot.
This is no time for purity. Larry Elder, a well-known radio host with lots of MAGA-fans, could well win on the second ballot if Democrats don't vote for Faulconer.
No, no, no. Faulconer is dead in the polls. He has virtually no chance to win. The top contender to Elder is Paffrath. You don't have to like him. He's a Democrat. He has the best shot at stopping Elder.
(Polls are trending toward No, so let's hope we're spared this whole hypothetical.)
That's odd, because the last time we had a recall it was "Democrats screwed up by having someone [the Lieutenant Governor] on the ballot."
I guess no matter what happens, we know that "Democrats screwed up."
After the last few years I've made it a serious point to never again ignore an election, however trivial or uninteresting it seemed.
Thinking about this I went to my county elections website to request an absentee ballot for the next election and discovered that I have to request an absentee ballot request form.
I have to file a request to get the form to request a ballot.
Pretty grim! Which state are you in? (If you don't mind ?)
Iowa, land of the free and brave.
Kim Reynolds might well be Dennis & Dee's forgotten triplet.
At a macro level, Republicans faired better, but still clearly lost Latinos in the last national election: this change was seen in FL, TX, AZ etc. In a world were local politics have become nationalized, then this trend is less shocking to me.
Lolz. Democrats lost Clinton voters inside large urban areas was one of the answers on the strange 2020 election. I think it cost Biden 1.5% of the vote in Penn alone. Ouch. Lockdown's to nowhere bunch hurt.
LOL what? No only did Biden eclipse Clinton's raw numbers everywhere, he also won PA remember?
DeSantis and Abbott are currently underwater in most polls so I don’t know where the statement that red state governors are popular comes from. In fact it would seem that the pandemic comeback has brought down all politicians.
Uh, no. Both Abbott and DeSantis are in the upper 40s when it comes to approval ratings. And that dip is relatively recent, for most of the past year (when their record on COVID and other factors was absolutely terrible) they had approval ratings in the mid 50s.
"But in red states where governors have pointedly refused to take the pandemic seriously and death rates have skyrocketed, governors remain popular."
I don't this this is true. See:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/455438-ron-desantis-net-approval-falls-14-points-among-florida-voters-as-covid-19-cases-soar/
https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/poll-gov-abbott-receives-lowest-ever-approval-rating-half-of-texans-disapprove-of-his-work/
Deaths have sky rocketed???? Nope.
Fuck off troll.
Kinda makes one wonder if our local moron is illiterate or innumerate.
Why “or” when “and” is right there.
Deaths have skyrocketed, si! Florida now accounts for nearly 25% of the COVID deaths in the entire United States.
https://mobile.twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1434857581164601350/photo/1
Nope, Florida has had higher deaths in the past. You need backhanded.
I'm the first to say that Florida's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic has been uniformly awful but I believe there was a point where they were doing somewhat better. My point is that at the present time, deaths are indeed skyrocketing, at least from their recent lulls, and the trend in Floria seems to be getting worse while the trend in more civilized states seems to be getting significantly better.
Uh, no. Current FL deaths are nearly twice as high as in the past.
https://www.cp24.com/world/florida-grapples-with-covid-19-s-deadliest-phase-yet-1.5573725
Curiously, Axios is reporting quite the opposite:
California voters' growing opposition to recalling Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is driven heavily by Latinos, according to new polling in the closing days of the election. https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html
Their assessment is based upon a poll by the Public Policy Institute that says 66% of Latinos don't support the recall, against 27% who do.
Support/Don't support is not the same as will vote/won't vote.
66% of likely Latino voters, actually.
Recalls are dumb anyways. It's the ridiculous lockdowns which have hurt Democrats and why they were so large into them needs investigation.
LOL, no.
So Kevin picked a Republican when, if I recall (so to speak…) correctly there were 9 Democrats on the ballot?
Personally, I wanted to vote yes and the check Newsom’s name, but that sort of message sending doesn’t seem to be available.
Apparently, Kevin is one of those "liberals" who is afraid of Democrats actually running things, so he votes in some Republicans to "balance it out" and ensure that the Democratic Party agenda can't be enacted. I've met a few of these people in my personal life, and they invariably are voters who really would like Republicans to be in charge of everything... but unfortunately, they find that the current crop of specific Republican politicians who actually would be in charge of everything are flawed in some way (insane, inane, immoral, unethical, corrupt, fascist, racist, sexist, classist, homophobic, sociopathic, whatever)... and so they find themselves uncomfortably in the Democratic Party tent looking to escape back to Team Red as soon as Team Red gets less flawed (in whatever way they find distasteful).
Ahaha 0% surprised.
Dude is either losing his mind or becoming a Republican. Not that there’s a big difference between those two options. But a casual read of this blog over the last few years will have any sane person scratching their head.
"Becoming"?
Dude's a wealthy child of USC alumni living in Orange County. When was he not a GQPer?
So, how in the CA ballot going to be scored? If you vote "NO" on the recall, and then to be sure, check the "NEWSOM" box on Part 2, does that negate your "NO" for the recall and change it into a "YES"? Or is your entire ballot just thrown away as "SPOILED"? Don't laugh; something similar happened to President-Elect Al Gore in 2000.
This is why I'm always reluctant to vote by mail. You send it in, filled out as best you can figure, and it's all over. If you made any mistakes, then too bad; no vote for you. And you may never find out that this happened.
There is no Newsom box in Part 2 since the law regulating recall elections prohibits the person being recalled from being a valid option after recall. Newsom cannot replace himself in a recall election, even if his name is handwritten in under Part 2 of the ballot.
What would happen is your "NO" vote would be recorded as being against the recall... and then if the recall wins anyway, your ballot with "Newsom" written in on it would be thrown away and not count at all towards the vote for any of the candidates, the same as any ballot in which more than 1 box was checked in Part 2 or if no boxes were checked in Part 2.
The two votes are not linked. You vote yes or no on line 1, and that’s the vote.
Separately, you can vote for one of the listed candidates or a registered write in. Newsom is not a valid candidate, votes for him will be ignored. But it won’t have any effect on question 1.
I’m pretty sure California gives an opportunity to cure spoiled ballots.
Let's see... how does that compare to voting in person...
You fill it out as best you can figure, and then it's all over. If you made any mistakes, then too bad; not vote for you. And you may never find out that this happened.
Oh, I see, absolutely no difference.
There is no "newsom box on part 2" and if you write it in, the write in will be ignored.
From today's Axios:
https://www.axios.com/california-recall-gavin-newsom-latino-voters-f1487c57-2514-4a96-b7fb-137e700bf8b0.html
"California voters' growing opposition to recalling Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is driven heavily by Latinos, according to new polling in the closing days of the election."
California's recall system makes Florida look good. Ya'll need to fix that mess.
Exactly. There should be one section, the "Recall Yes/No" part at the top. If the Governor is recalled, the Lieutenant Governor, who was elected independently by the entire electorate, should ascend to the governorship. That's what they're for....
Agree. This idea of having a free for all to replace the governor is nuts.
I think Kevin is simply deciding to vote on the 2nd part to not waste his vote and vote for whoever will be best that has a viable chance. Right now, if the recall wins, elder is clearly favored. And the ones who have some chance of beating him are falconer and maybe paffrath. Hard to tell as polls have been all over the place depending on poll construction.
Not voting in the 2nd part is just basically saying that you refuse to participate if you do not get your way on the recall. What good does that do? And voting for any Democrat but paffrath is throwing your vote away.
You wanted to vote yes on the recall and then write in Newsom? What? Do not understand the point of doing that if you could. Actually you can but I think it will not count. If you want to retain Newsom and send a message, why would you not vote no and then write in Newsom if you could ?
Why do California liberals hate trans people?
Caitlyn Jenner should be pissed to run in an LGBTQ++ paradise but only get 1% in the polls.
She’s a pro-Trump conservative Republican. You think pro-LGBT Californians should vote for her because she’s trans even if they disagree with her on just about ever issue? Nonsense.
I don’t know who she thought would vote for her. Republicans won’t because she’s trans. Democrats won’t because she’s Republican. Does leave a huge base.
There were plenty of Republicans who might have voted for her if she had become a viable alternative. She impressed some with her initial interviews . Going off to Australia in the middle of the campaign killed whatever possibilities she might have had.
When elder jumped in , he was the most conservative non establishment republican alternative. But the more establishment somewhat more moderate conservative vote was just too fractured to consolidate around an elder alternative in time it looks like.
Honestly I think kiley was the actual threat to elder, not falconer . He did appeal to some more serious conservatives and impressed many in the debates ( elder skipping them was a weakness ) . But he just never came up enough in polling to look like the alternative ( did not help that one poll somehow skipped him ) .
In the end , if recall wins , I think elder is the strong favorite. Which is what the Newsom campaign wanted - they helped pump up his prominence for a reason. If falconer or kiley or paffrath were leading in polls of replacement, Newsom would be in much more trouble.
Agreed and the GOP did not help itself by endorsing a candidate. By not supporting Faulconer or Kiley, they just opened a space for Elder to take over because he's catnip to what's left of the party's base in the state and they can't help it.
Why are Latinos cool towards Newsom? From talking to some who are more working class and not assimilated upper class or upper middle class, I think it has little to do with bad feelings about the number of covid cases and deaths they have had .
It seems most do not blame him that much for that, and are not even really complaining about that being caused by some sort if racism or unfair policies . They largely recognize that Hispanics had a larger share of cases mostly because they did not practice social distancing or masking, etc. As well as living in large families. They made their choice to live their lives as they wished and enjoy it and risk more illness and death. To a large part, they accept responsibility for their own choices like adults.
But they generally do not support the strict covid restrictions and the " nanny state" style of government. Especially for their kids going back to school.
I think Kevin is somewhat projecting his opinions onto Hispanics and thinking they might blame Newsom for not having tough enough restrictions causing more covid or something. But Hispanics were more thinking the restrictions were too tough .
And homelessness is also probably as much of an issue as covid policy.
"nanny state" is protecting you from yourself and not making other people pay for your mistakes. E.g. a sugar tax on soda.
Protecting others from your bad behavior is not "nanny state".
Given your handle, it would be nice if you said something that qualified as either "rational" or as "thought".
You did not notice that I put nanny state in quotes? I was explaining the reasoning I have heard re why they did not like restrictions, not necessarily my own opinion . Personally I understand your argument why it is different than things like a soda tax. But it also had some nanny state aspects, especially as to how it was presented to the public. And this is more so for the healthy young who have a very low risk from covid.
There was way too much from govt and media re exaggerating the risk to the young in order to mislead them to get them to do the right thing for the community, instead of just honestly conceding that ,even though their risk was low enough to make masking or social distancing not worth it to them personally, they should do it to help protect the more vulnerable. That would have worked better.
You’re an idiot
> I honestly don't think it makes much difference, but for the record I marked my ballot for San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer. I didn't give this a great deal of thought beyond the fact that Faulconer is non-insane, and among California Republicans that's a rare commodity these days.
Faulconer voluntarily associates himself with the nut-case brand. That makes him a nut-case.
I went to 538 and picked the democrat who is leading their polls.
But I agree it doesn't matter. If Newsom is recalled, the nutcases will also get to decide who the nutcase that replaces Newsom is.
Please Note!
Kevin voted "No."
Those slagging on him for voting for someone in part 2 are missing that.
No, we aren't.
I believe the criticism is that Kevin choose to vote for a Republican whom he sees as “moderate” and some kind of a technocrat who would speak the language of the right but, ultimately, govern as a “centrist”.
I think the point many people are making is that the most decent man in the Waffen SS is still a monster and a Nazi
Faulconer voted for Trump in 2020. Just because he doesn't froth at the mouth like Gohmert Pyle or MTG doesn't mean he's not insane. He just hides it better than they do.
Just something guys do,
https://www.rawstory.com/proud-boys-weird-national-events/
No homo.
I wrote in "Gavin Newsom" for part 2. Yes, not supposedly allowed, but screw it. There is a lawsuit about the recall being unconstitutional since it violates the equal protection clause. I figure if enough people write in Newsom, it might strengthen that case.
No do not think it will. Because my understanding is that your vote on part 2 will simply not be recorded as it is illegitimate. I think other write ins will be.
So , as far as making a point, you might as well have left it blank as nobody will ever see the write in votes for Newsom.
I think there was some talk about someone also named Newsom but not Gavin as a stand in for him , before Newsom decided to ask for leaving it blank. If a write in for Gavin even could make a point, I think that is what he would have asked for.
Kevin said: “ All you have to do is mark one box (or two if you care about the bottom part of the ballot) and seal it up. It takes about one minute.”
Hopefully no one will follow your instructions. You also have to SIGN the envelope and PRINT your address. Takes about five minutes. If someone turns in the ballot for you, there are a bunch of other steps including an additional two signatures and IIRC printing the name of the person taking your ballot.
I do not understand why I had to print my address when my address was already printed on the envelope. Is it a handwriting sample?
It's something you might not notice, or that you might make look odd, so your ballot can be rejected.
People are unhappy about pandemic and resulting economic situation, some subcultures more than others, people will theorize, but Newsom hasn't helped his position with some of his personal lapses.
Whether it's Gavin Newsom allowing his children to attend a maskless daycamp or Matt Gaetz trafficking children to the Bahamas for sex, both parties have problems with child protection.
Illegal to buy a vibrator in Texas,
https://twitter.com/legsidelizzy/status/1435156156930985986
I have a theory that some of of the slippage Democrats suffered among Latino voters has been indeed due to the pandemic — primarily because Trump/GOP successfully positioned themselves as the party that opposes lockdowns (and so opposes the efforts of the evil Democrats to take your job away). I think it's fair to say that Latino voters in the US are less likely than the median voter to have office jobs that can easily be one at home. This dynamic probably hurt Democrats with respect to Black (especially male) voters, too.
Anyway, if I'm right Newsom is suffering from the lingering effects of this.
Yes, if you read my post above, pretty much what I related in talking to Hispanic working class. And yes you are correct that it also applies somewhat to African Americans. However on a different issue.
Hispanic weakness for Newsom re covid more about restrictions not vaccine ( they have not been anti vaccine) . For unvaccinated blacks, more about vaccine and worry Newsom will try more coercive measures if retained.
But from what I have heard, little to do with trump or republican positioning on the issue. It is that Newsom has positioned himself as pro restriction and pro vaccine- whatever Republicans have positioned themselves.
I would say if Republicans were trying to recall Newsom, they have made a total mess of their campaign. Newsom really was vulnerable but it was almost like some Republicans were trying to get him retained.
I think you are exactly right Jasper. Not only that, if you're going to impose such lockdowns, then decide to ignore your own restrictions to go to a party for a lobbyist at a place called "The French Laundry", it's not going to exactly please people, Latinos or otherwise, especially if you own a business closed by said restrictions. A good deal of the angst towards Newsom was no doubt caused by this not to mention he just comes across a gringo elitist, both in look and manner.
Now having said all this, it is the correct strategy in my opinion not to have a rival, serious Democrat funneling the vote to the pro-recall column. Gray Davis did not prevent this from happening in 2003 and the end result was his defeat. Making this about the GOP and Trump stealing democracy is the right call and way to bring out Democrats, even Latinos, otherwise apathetic towards Newsom.
If things play out to where Newsom stays in office but Elder wins on the other side of the ballot, this would be a boon for the Democrats. Barring anything else bad happening, GOP voters would have castrated the one candidate they had who could win a statewide race not just now but for 2022 as well. Kevin Faulconer as a two-term mayor of San Diego, following in the footsteps of Pete Wilson, would have every chance of being elected governor of California if the old political rules applied. One could easily see him winning huge chunks of Democratic support from upper-middle class whites and Latinos as well and be a governor in the mold of Baker-DeWine-Hogan-Scott. One could easily see a nightmare campaign for Dems of Faulconer conducting successful voter outreach to Latinos and other non-whites and building a new Republican Party.
But....nahhhh! Republican voters have clearly decided they don't want someone like that representing them, They want a bomb thrower. Another celebrity politician using name recognition despite having never run for dog catcher before to raise large amounts of money. In other words another Trump. We see where their loyalties really lie. They have absolutely no use for policy or administrative acumen unless it's policy that's utter fantasy but plays well on talk radio and Fox News. After all the organizers of the recall were basically three doofuses who had a talk radio show on some low-power station in Fresno. And if that's what they want, and they don't mind continually losing statewide elections and acting like martyrs about it as they drop to third among registered voters in the state, well, whom am I to argue? But in so doing they will have cut the balls off of Faulconer as a credible candidate in 2022 against Newsom if he survives next week and if that happens, perhaps Newsom can get a good chuckle out of it.
Elder? Please. Elder is a nothing.
Well, yeah, to you, because he's Black.
You think it's a mystery that people don't like having ridiculously arrogant poorly educated rich white people tell them they should be using latinx and restructuring their language because they're all misogynists?
OF COURSE this is a consequence of the unbridled idiocy of a small fraction of the college-credentialed population who insist they speak for everyone (and are too stupid to see the parallels of their behavior with previous similar imperialisms).
Newsom may not be an extreme example of this behavior, but he hasn't exactly spoken out strongly against it -- no Sista Soulja moments for him...
And it won't end here. Most African-Americans are equally unimpressed with this insistence by some 25 yr old that she knows better than them what "the community" needs. Larry Elder won't be the last black Republican, and some of his successors will be a lot more competent, carrying a lot less personal baggage.
We are getting closer to the point where any sentence that begins with "Latino voters have . . . " is going to be false without qualifications.
Cf. Any sentence that begins "Democrats agree that . . . "
What I mean is that there is an assumption that "Latino voters" are a coherent group with the same thoughts & feelings about political things. I'm not sure that's true. I am sure that just about any Democratic governor is going to suffer a loss of support during hard times. Unlike Republicans who remain loyal so long as their elected officials represent & promote their ignorance & hateful bigotry, Democratic voters demand competence, often unreasonably.