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Why is Denmark removing all COVID-19 restrictions?

Denmark is very different from the United States. It's small; its vaccination rate against COVID-19 is over 80%; and its citizens generally trust the government. That said, I still found it interesting to read a Twitter thread from Michael Bang Petersen, a professor at the University of Aarhus who advises the Danish government on pandemic policy.

The question he addresses is why Denmark has recently removed all pandemic restrictions even though case rates are very high. Petersen notes that there are reasons to think things are better than they look, but beyond that he's forthright about taking public opinion into consideration:

Petersen then makes a fairly conventional argument about the costs and benefits of imposing restrictions:

Should Denmark wait until all concerns have been settled? Maybe. But waiting is not free. It has costs in terms of the economy, well-being and democratic rights. Balancing these is an explicit part of the Danish strategy....Our research shows that these costs generate pandemic fatigue, which fuels distrust.

Should your country also turn the responsibility to people themselves? It depends on the epidemic & public preferences. But this shows how trust & solidarity entails an acceptance of costs, allowing society to act in agreement. Both when closing down & when opening up.

In the US this would have to be done on a state-by-state basis, but otherwise our issues are similar. The difference is that in the US we decide on pandemic policy by yelling and screaming and taking sides in a vast tribal war. In Denmark they do it by polling the citizenry and asking health authorities to take that into account.

The funny thing is that I'll bet both methods come to similar conclusions. In places were people don't want strict COVID rules, they don't have them. In places where they do, they do. The big difference is that Danes prefer a calm, technocratic approach to getting there while we apparently think it's more fun to burst a few national blood vessels on our way to letting the people decide. I guess every country has to be true to its national character.

Despite the fact that Denmark's case rate has skyrocketed far above the US, their high vaccination rate means that they have far fewer serious COVID cases than we do.

39 thoughts on “Why is Denmark removing all COVID-19 restrictions?

  1. randomworker

    Yeah well I don't know. A lot of people in my neighborhood and social circle are claiming they are "done with" covid. Fine. But you won't find me maskless in an aerobics class any time soon.

    1. Jerry O'Brien

      Their case and hospitalization rates are huge now, though. With vaccination, you still have a point, but they could still be nervous.

      1. Rattus Norvegicus

        Did you look at the handy chart that Kevin supplied? US ICU rates are about 12 times what the rates in Denmark are. They might be huge, but vaccinations are keeping people on the right side of the dirt.

        It is also probably worth noting that many people that are hospitalized are hospitalized because they came in for something else (heart attack, car accident) and tested positive. ICU is probably a better measure.

        1. Jerry O'Brien

          I don't trust the Denmark ICU graph. Lots of people going into the hospital, but suddenly not many going into intensive care? Is that happening in other highly vaccinated countries, or highly vaccinated states in the U.S.? If Denmark is unique, why?

          1. Silver

            This is not unique for Denmark. In Sweden we have the same situation. Quite a few are in the hospital with covid (although about 40% of these are in hospital for other reasons primarily, this number was about 20% with delta). Mainly because of the high vaccination rate very few get so sick that they need the ICU.

          2. Special Newb

            Yes. Omicron was estimated to be 50% less likely to put you in the hospital but 75% less likely to put you in ICU a month ago.

            Combine that with a far healthier far skinnier population than thr US and that seems sufficient for me

          3. Jerry O'Brien

            The chart must have incomplete data for Denmark's ICU rate after January 6. Their death rate continues to be at around 65 percent of what it was at its highest point in January 2021, and their hospitalization rate rose sharply throughout January 2022. Unless many patients are now being spared intensive care and allowed to die with less intervention, the recent downturn in the ICU count doesn't make sense.

  2. weirdnoise

    Given care people undertake of their own volition as well as vaccination and natural immunity, Denmark probably has pushed Rₜ below 1.

  3. jte21

    From a public health policy perspective, managing Covid has *always* been about "flattening the curve" -- keeping the disease in check to the point where it doesn't overwhelm your healthcare system, not necessarily eliminating it entirely. Denmark is pretty much there. Covid is still circulating, but not slamming their hospitals and ICUs.

    Here...not so much.

    1. Jasper_in_Boston

      From a public health policy perspective, managing Covid has *always* been about "flattening the curve"

      That's certainly been an important consideration. But public health efforts have obviously gone well beyond that in many countries. It's possible to flatten the curve and accept a very large number of deaths, provided those deaths are sufficiently spaced out.

    1. jte21

      Yes, but if they're taking up hospital and ICU space that could be used for treating people with illnesses/injuries that weren't a result of their own fucking stupidity/selfishness, that's the problem. It would be a huge help if they could just die alone at home with their own horse dewormer.

      1. KenSchulz

        Yes. I was just listening to NPR the other day, to a cardiologist who couldn’t get a patient in for bypass surgery for a number of weeks - until the patient had a heart attack (fortunately, the patient survives, but likely with lasting heart damage). The cardiologist related this to colleagues, all of whom had similar stories. Don’t remember the US location.

  4. Jasper_in_Boston

    **Vaccines are the path back to normalcy**

    Democrats need to own and push this message relentlessly heading into midterms. It's abundantly clear the public is pandemic-fatigued (understandable) but it's equally clear only 1 of our 2 parties is *serious* about a return to normalcy.

    Concentrating on this message would: A) drive home idea that it's DEMOCRATS voters need to support if they're genuinely sick and tired of masks, school closures, travel hassles etc and, B) put GOP on defensive: why on earth do Republicans want to PROLONG this wretched pandemic?

    Surrendering to disease and death (the GOP's preferred approach) isn't a return to normalcy.

    Anyway, Good for the Danes and their 80% vax rate and effective public health service.

    1. golack

      Really--I mean vaccinated people are only 14x better protected from death than unvaccinated, and boosted only raises that to, what, 90x. How's that going help us return to normalcy???
      /s

  5. KawSunflower

    Surprised that our Swedish "friend" hasn't given us the benefit of his superior wisdom lately - or have I missed it?

      1. KawSunflower

        And here is have endeavored to avoid name-calling despite my very poor reaction to the second one. Dealing with 2 such know-it-alls from the same background has rendered me intolerant, I suppose; sorry!

        1. Silver

          I must say I get a bit sad being called a know-it-all. My intentions have throughout been to give background information and a local's insights into the Swedish choices during the pandemic, not trying to tell anybody else what they should do or what would be right for their situation.

          I have of course seen a lot of comments by my fellow Swede Sture, and although I think he mostly has the same goal as I have, I don't agree with how he puts things. In general I find it hard to stomach people thinking they can truly know the inner workings of another country (or, in fact, other people generally). There is so much cultural, societal and historical background that is simply not possible to grasp if you did not grow up in that country, or at least lived there for a long time.

          This is in fact a major reason why I have continued to write whenever I see things I consider misunderstandings about Sweden, or believe I have insights to share that might help understand the Swedish choices during the pandemic. Some comments here about Sweden have been simplistic, judgmental, ignorant, and sometimes downright insulting. Which is to a degree understandable, given how much the average American knows about Sweden. In itself no surprise, we are a small insignificant country very far away. Hence my efforts.

          But, believe me, I certainly don't think I know all, even less about your country and how to solve your problems. Neither do I think Sweden has found the solution to every problem, far from it! Almost every time I have written here I have also pointed out mistakes and problems in Sweden. Please don't mistake me for Sture, or him for me. Give us the respect of considering us individuals.

          I learn a lot about the US from following this blog and its commentary.

  6. golack

    The Acela corridor is doing better. DC thru Boston.
    Cleveland is doing good==Howard the Duck must have been busy.
    Cases are dropping in and around Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta.

    By dropping--I mean no longer batshit crazy. Numbers are still really high--yet people are talking about dropping masks. Please NO!!! Give the hospitals a break. No discussions about lifting restrictions until cases are below 20 new cases/day per 100K

    Where case numbers have been dropping, the rate of the drop has slowed. There have been some local hiccups. I feared they could indicate some major backsliding--but that does not seem to be the case. Positivity is still high, and varies a lot--so rate comparisons are hand wavey. But I like waving my hands...

    1. golack

      Forgot to mention, PR is doing much better now--new case rate dropped over 6-fold, yet it's still high (and still dropping).

    2. Jasper_in_Boston

      Deaths are really nasty, though. They'll likely peak soon (maybe already have), and I realize they're a trailing indicator. But man is the US shitty at preventing covid deaths.

      I've said it before and will say it again: if there's one silver lining from this pandemic, it's that the inane mythology of "American Exceptionalism" will finally have been put to rest.

      (Unless, of course, we're talking exceptional shit show.)

  7. cld

    Are there statistics on how many excess deaths have occurred among non-covid patients because they couldn't get into the hospital?

    1. KenSchulz

      I’d like to think that emphasizing this consequence of Covid denial would bring more people around to getting vaccinated and wearing masks, but I’ve come to think that anti-mask, anti-vaccine, mostly Republican-voting people just are incapable of empathy.

  8. mhorst

    What I like best about the Dane's attitudes toward COVID is this: they overwhelmingly support vaccination AND overwhelmingly disagree with mandates. They, in general, understand that mandates are counterproductive and tend to create more problems then they solve.

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