Last night I looked at cumulative COVID-19 deaths in each state. This morning I got curious about what this looks like just for the year 2021. That is, with a year of experience behind us and vaccines becoming available, how did each state do? Here's the answer:
Delaware is a lot worse than it was in the overall data, as is West Virginia. The bottom of the chart looks much the same. Here's a chart that shows how state rankings changed between 2020 and 2021:
At the top of the list is North Dakota, which ranked 46th in 2020 thanks to a big outbreak but in 2021 ranks 10th, an improvement of 36 places. Conversely, West Virginia ranked a respectable 14th last year but is dead last at 51st this year, a drop of 37 places.
This is all kind of sketchy, so let's just dive all the way down the sketchiness rabbit hole. I wanted a simple index that represented my intuition that you should get more credit for improvement if you started from a high point in the first place (and vice versa for declining if you started at a low point). So this index gives points for ranking well in 2020 and for improving your rank in 2021:
The index is just your rank in 2020 rank plus your improvement rank in 2021. For example, Vermont ranked second in 2020 and then stayed about the same in 2021, which is obviously a great performance. On the other end, Arizona ranked 34th in 2020 and then ranked nearly the worst in how far they dropped in 2021. That's pretty miserable. Conversely, Idaho dropped as badly as Arizona but started out at 15th, so they don't score quite as badly.
Anyway, this index penalizes a ranking drop more if you started out from a lousy position to begin with, which seems fair. Take it for what it's worth.
I credit Kevin for admitting this is sketchy, but these are some worthwhile illustrations. It's hard to avoid feeling that this confirms beliefs that the red states haven't been as successful at responding to this year's covid activity. Maybe it's their state governments, and maybe it's popular reaction against vaccines, masks, and every other kind of elite-recommended mitigation.
Still, 2021's not over yet, and the current hot spots are bluer states.
I agree with the sentiment, but the charts really need some revision to be clearer about what they show. For example, I think that states with the highest "improvement index" did the worst in terms of fighting covid, which is confusing.
This whole post is fairly baffling.
Massachusetts is blue now? Better than red, but I was expecting purple.
These kinds of comparisons are not useful I think. So many random elements are at play. Florida's vaccination rate is slightly above average for the US but we have a lot of deaths here because we were hit by Delta early. Our infection rate is way down while infections are spiking again in a lot of other states.
At this point we know what to do about COVID. Get vaccinated. Stay vaccinated. Nothing else really matters.
It's patently obvious that red states have done worse than blue states in general, especially this year, and especially since vaccinations have been available. State by state comparisons may not be helpful, but if you cross your eyes you can see the dolphin in the picture - Republican leadership and conservative ideology are killing people. Don't believe for a minute that with the low vaccination rates, the low case rates in the gulf states are going to continue. Everyone will be hit this winter. We already know that a 70% vaccination rate is not enough.
Always pleased when Kevin suggests that ND are doing well by comparing them with the neighbours to the North.
ND 1 in 4.8 have caught COVID
MB 1 in 21 have caught COVID
ND 1 in 400 have died from COVID
MB 1 in 1080 have died from COVID.
As North Dakota's most famous native, longtime Chicago Bulls & Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson, might say it, "North Dakota is goink well".
Today's WSJ suggests that the colors will generally reverse if you plot economic performance since Feb. 2020.
I don't think AZ should be blue, since the governor and state leg are all deep red.
The color coding is a distraction, nothing more
Interesting that Omicron was detected in CA. Many people are saying it's been here for awhile. What is curious about that is that delta IS the predominant wave right now and has been since July.
If these people who believe Omicron has been here more than say a few months then it appears as though delta and omicron were living side by side - which would be very unusual.
Also there are new reports that Omicron has been detected in rats. Now this is also curious as rats have transmitted disease in the past - or played a part in it. (boubonic plague anyone?). Rats also tend to get into our eating establishments especially in big cities like New York. Deer? Not so much.
We are gonna learn a lot about Omicron over the next couple of weeks. Point is that so far it appears to be more transmissable, but symptoms are milder. That is a good thing, But if it is mutating among species in the animal kingdom and coming back to humans? THAT would be another story altogether
Second case of Omicron:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/minnesota-reports-second-us-omicron-covid-case-in-resident-who-traveled-to-nyc.html
{snip}
Minnesota public health authorities confirmed Thursday what appears to be the second U.S. case of the omicron Covid variant in a resident who recently returned from New York City, the state’s department of health said.
The man, who was fully vaccinated and has since recovered, traveled to New York City to attend the Anime NYC 2021 convention at the Javits Center from Nov. 19-21, the department said in a statement. The first omicron case was confirmed in California by U.S. officials Wednesday in a person who recently returned to San Francisco from a trip to South Africa.
New York health officials haven’t yet confirmed any cases in the state, Gov. Kathy Hochul told reporters at a press conference in Manhattan on Thursday
{snip}
The question of course is did he go to NY with it? Or come back with it?
He's fully recovered, thank goodness
Maybe he caught it from a rodent
More news out of S Africa:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/omicron-causes-fastest-ever-community-transmission-in-s-africa
{snip}
The omicron coronavirus variant is spreading faster in Gauteng, the epicenter of the latest outbreak in South Africa, than the delta strain or any of the earlier mutations, an adviser to the provincial government said.
There is the “strongest acceleration in community transmission ever seen in South Africa,” Bruce Mellado, the adviser, said in a presentation on Thursday. This is “consistent with dominance of a variant that is more transmissible,” he said
{snip}
The IMPORTANT Things to remember is that it's spreading rapidly in some areas of S Africa which is poorly vaccinated.
But the first 2 cases in the U.S. were break throughs
It's early but preliminary data shows post infection immunity doesn't work against omicron
https://www.timesofisrael.com/early-data-shows-past-infection-does-not-ward-off-omicron-but-vaccines-efffective/
(snip)
People infected with earlier variants of COVID do not appear to be protected against Omicron, although vaccination does prevent serious illness, a top South African scientist said on Thursday.
“We believe that previous infection does not provide protection from Omicron,” said Anne von Gottberg, an expert at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
(snip)
damn
OK-
Random comments in no particular order
With Omicron the anti vax people have been thoroughly reputed.
Post ifection immunity supporters as well
First there's this from Sept
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/09/05/36-of-those-who-had-covid-19-didnt-develop-antibodies-study-says/?sh=2fed0a7a5f60
{snip}
Think you are protected against the Covid-19 coronavirus and don’t need the Covid-19 vaccine just because you’ve already had Covid-19? Well, contrary to what some motivational talks may tell you, don’t be so sure of yourself. A study just published in the journal Emerging Infectious Disease found that 36% of those who had had Covid-19 didn’t have antibodies against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in their blood.
{snip}
Now, when COVID was just a nursing home disease we too easily dismissed this particular age group as being somewhat expendable
But Delta, and particularly Delta PLUS started attacking a younger crowd, including some children. Recent hospitalization data out of my home state of NC indicates that the majority of our CURRENT hospitalized folks are UNDER 65. Data out of S Africa indicates that children make up as large a portion of the illness as anyone else.
So, Where are we?
our population is currently at 333 million. I will be generous here and say that 2/3 are vaccinated leaving 111M as un vax'd. As of today those folks have no protection - NONE. Previous infection provides NO PROTECTION against Omicron, according to the Israelis.
So all those un-vax'd including children WILL GET THIS
But to make matters worse, the other 222 million are at risk of catching a milder version.
Germany has the right idea. Lock down the unvaccinated. Preserve what level of health care you have for those who are SERIOUS about taking care of themselves. I appreciate those who believe their religion exempts them. I appreciate their determination to live by the "word" of their beliefs. But don't expect ME to pay for YOUR beliefs. You are on your own financially. For those who can't take the vaccines for medical reasons? We should, and we will take care of you.
But for those others who for whatever reason believe that post infection immunity works. I personally have had enough of this nonsense. Get your shot and prove you got it to go about your life. Otherwise, stay home, don't work don't socialize.
It's well past the time for vaccine mandates. Employers have them and republicans are very quiet about them, but when Biden proposes it they scream Mengele, and Hitler, and communism.
We need strong action, even by the vaccinated, who may get this but get a milder case. We need to slow the spread. This immunity evading variant is far too early. It spreads so fast (S Africa cases are up 300% in 10 days) that vaccine manufacturers cannot get one to market fast enough.
COVID has been ping ponging around far too long and in too many places - thats how new mutation's form. What will be next? A variant as deadly as Beta with the ease of Omicron transmission? One that affect all ages?
This is getting ugly
Oh and one more thing
For all those idiots who rant about hospitalizations
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/covid-19-hospitalizations-rising-south-africas-omicron-hot-spot-rcna6922
{snip}
Hospitalizations across the country have increased by 63 percent since the beginning of the month, according to data from the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases. In Gauteng, a province that includes the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, hospitalizations are up by nearly 400 percent since the beginning of the month, from 120 for the week ending Nov. 6 to 580 for the week ending Saturday.
{snip}
We are lucking that we have a higher % of people vaccinated in this country.
But if you are still unvaccinated after all we've been through and relying on post infection immunity to get you, and your children through?
I hope you watch your children die and follow them soon thereafter
Thats mean but I am beyond caring at this point. It's been free, and all it takes is a jab in the arm. Protect your kids, by all means, protect yourselves as well