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It's time to tell you the final chapter of my drone story.

The reason I got the drone is because height is the photographer's best friend. At ground level, the perspective is lousy and there are always things in the way: trees, buildings, power lines, and so forth. The best perspective, oddly, is often from freeways, but those are frustratingly off limits for obvious reasons.

All of that got me thinking about drones, but the thing that finally tipped me over the edge was the LA skyline. For some reason I got the idea lodged in my head that I wanted to take a picture of the LA skyline at sunrise from the west. The problem is that the Westside is almost entirely flat, so there's no place to get a good angle. Here's the best I was able to do:

September 21, 2021 — Los Angeles, California

But a drone would fix that! So I got my little drone and started taking pictures. It worked like a champ:

October 2, 2021 — Los Angeles, California

Unfortunately, I needed to kill some time after taking these pictures, so I went out to Caltech, where I decided to fly the drone around and take a movie. But I wasn't very good at this and ran it into a tree. After examining the damage it was obvious that the camera was completely wrecked and not fixable.

I got a replacement, and then I went out to Louisiana. I had practiced more with the drone, but not enough. I was out at a swamp and . . . I flew the drone into a tree. I couldn't even retrieve it this time to examine the damage. It was either stuck in a tree or else it had fallen into the swamp. It was gone forever.

This time I decided not to replace it. I had gotten most of what I wanted to experiment with from aerial photography, and if I ever decide to get more serious about it I'll buy a bigger, better drone with a higher quality camera. That probably won't be any time soon, though. For now I'm droneless.

Over at National Review, Michael Brendan Dougherty says he's surprised that progressive anger over the Dobbs decision has been relatively modest:

There were some loud marches through major cities over the weekend, but hardly the wave of riots, vandalism, and sacrilege promised by the group Jane’s Revenge. I think many of us prepared for our churches to be harassed over the weekend, only to come back Monday and see reports of a little graffiti at a crisis pregnancy center and the burning of an unused but historic church in Virginia.

I expected worse. And I suspect that the leak of the drafted Alito opinion stole some of the spontaneous energy from what could have been an explosive moment in public demonstration.

Dougherty obviously hasn't been reading the same Twitter feeds as me. I've seen plenty of anger.

But yes, the leak of the decision probably took away some of shock. And there's another thing too: Dobbs mainly affects red states, where state legislatures have already made abortion so difficult to get that it's been all but banned already. Conversely, it has no effect in blue states where legislatures have no intention of banning abortion. Hell, California has decided to strengthen abortion protections in response to Dobbs.

So if the response to Dobbs really has been modest, I'd propose several reasons:

  • The leak.
  • The laws already in place in red states.
  • That fact that, in practical terms, there's little that progressives can do.

One of my guesses, by the way, is that Republicans are going to blow it. One of Dougherty's colleagues, for example, asks what's next?

Now that the Dobbs decision has come down, we must ask the question: What does final victory look like in a post-Roe country? It means an America in which abortion is not merely illegal — it’s unthinkable.

A large majority of Americans disapprove of Dobbs, and according to Gallup hardly anyone approves of a complete national ban on abortion. In fact, after the leak of Dobbs that went down seven points to 13% from an already low 20%.

The obvious conclusion is that Republicans should tread carefully. They got Dobbs thanks to a perfect storm of luck in Supreme Court appointments, and it's pretty unpopular. Pushing further would be really unpopular, but I'll bet they won't be able to help themselves.

A few days ago I showed you this chart:

This points to one of the most interesting ways of fighting the Supreme Court's abortion decision.

Abortion pills are approved by the FDA—a federal agency—and are nearly as safe as aspirin. A lot of experts think that it's impossible for a state to ban the use of a medication approved by a federal agency, and that would mean abortion pills are legal everywhere, regardless of a state's abortion laws.

But suppose that's not true. Or suppose the Supreme Court just arbitrarily rules that state law takes precedence. It's still the case that abortion pills are legal in lots of states, and there's nothing the Supreme Court can do about that.

So someone in California sets up a website that delivers abortion pills to anyone who wants them. That's legal in California, and there's no practical way of banning websites on a state-by-state basis. Someone presses a button, buys the pills, and they're delivered by the postal service. That's also a federal agency, and no state can intercept the mail and legally surveil it. Then you take the pills, and the next day you're no longer pregnant.

If everything is encrypted and the California folks don't keep records, it's hard to know what anyone could do about this in practice even if it were technically illegal.

Now, this isn't a panacea. Abortion pills are very, very safe, but occasionally they have side effects serious enough to demand a trip to the ER. That opens up the possibility of authorities figuring out what you did and prosecuting you.

More to the point, abortion pills don't work on all pregnancies. They're good only for the first 11 weeks. They don't work on ectopic pregnancies. And they're not recommended under certain circumstances.¹ All told, abortion pills are probably effective for about 90% of abortions.

So they aren't a perfect solution. But they sure make things a lot better, and they'd especially make things better if their cost were paid by some friendly billionaire. Another thing in their favor is that Republicans are scared stiff of even trying to prosecute women who get abortions. Doctors, sure, but not their patients. That's wildly unpopular and Republicans have always sworn they wouldn't do it.

¹According to WebMD, abortion pills are not safe for anyone who:

  • Is too far into their pregnancy
  • Has a pregnancy outside of their womb (also called an ectopic pregnancy)
  • Has a blood clot disorder or serious anemia
  • Has adrenal failure
  • Is taking steroid medications long-term
  • Takes any meds that could affect the drugs needed to end the pregnancy
  • Has an IUD (intrauterine device) — a doctor would need to remove this first
  • Is allergic to abortive medications
  • Can’t get to an emergency room if needed
  • Can’t see the doctor for a follow-up appointment

 

As usual, California leads the way:

On Monday, the Democratic-controlled Legislature gave final approval to a measure that would put [abortion] before the state’s voters, in the latest countermeasure aimed at the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade.

Senate Constitutional Amendment 10 by Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) would, if approved by voters, further codify the state’s already progressive reproductive rights, which grant anyone of reproductive age “the fundamental right to choose to bear a child or to choose and to obtain an abortion.” Currently, those rights in California are held up by case law and statutory laws, but Atkins said hostile attacks on abortion access convinced her those aren’t enough.

I believe this will pass. Legally, it's not clear to me how much difference it makes since Dobbs gives state legislatures supremacy on abortion regardless of whether the language is statutory or constitutional. But it might make a difference someday, so it's a good idea to get it down in black and white now, while the getting is good.

The chart below shows core inflation for both the US and Europe:

For the US I used the PCE price index excluding energy and food. For Europe I used Eurostat's HICP index excluding energy and unprocessed food. Since these are core inflation rates, they are unaffected by differences in oil spikes, Ukrainian food blockades, and so forth. This is just plain, underlying inflation.

The two markers show when core inflation first jumped more than half a point above its trendline. For the US that happened in April 2021. For Europe it happened in September 2021.

Given the timing, it seems likely that the initial surge in the US was prompted by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which produced higher consumer spending for a few months before the flow of money stabilized. Then, in September, inflation surged again in both the US and Europe even though consumer spending was pretty flat. Given this, I would apportion the causes of core US inflation like this:

  • Underlying inflation: 1.5%
  • ARP: 2%
  • Supply chains etc.: 1.5%

In Europe, it's more like:

  • Underlying inflation: 1.4%
  • Supply chains etc.: 3.8%

I've done this calculation a few times before using different data, but it always comes out about the same.

So here is my surprising conclusion: ARP has run its course, which is why core inflation has softened over the past couple of months. That will eventually leave us with core inflation of about 3.5%, which will decline as consumer spending eases and supply chains open back up.

Europe is a different story. They apparently handled supply chain issues considerably worse than we did, and that's pretty much the sole source of their surge in core inflation. It will not start to decline until they fix this.

In addition, both the US and Europe are suffering from an additional 3.6% inflation thanks to soaring food and energy prices. This is likely temporary, and in any case there's very little that policymakers can do about it.

Bottom line: Despite our endless whining about it, the US handled its supply chain issues pretty well. And while Joe Biden's spending package may have created some additional inflation, it was temporary and it gave the economy (i.e., actual American people) a boost when things looked bleak.

Europe, by contrast, appears to be suffering much worse from its handling of supply chains, and their economy is more sluggish than ours because we were more generous with stimulus spending (in March 2020, December 2020, and March 2021).¹ We might not have been perfect, but which place would you rather live in?

¹Europe didn't need as much stimulus thanks to its relatively strong safety net. Even so, they were too stingy with stimulus spending. In the end, this stinginess hurt their economic growth and didn't help them with inflation, which is currently higher than ours.

Since court expansion is in the news, here's a quick historical note about "The Switch in Time That Saved Nine."

When FDR took office and began putting together the New Deal, he he knew that his presidency faced a Supreme Court with a solid conservative majority. In particular, it featured the "Four Horsemen," a clique of economic die-hards who almost never supported federal or state intrusion into the workplace. However, despite FDR's fears, nothing much happened during his first few years, perhaps because even the Horsemen understood the emergency posed by the Great Depression.

But in 1935 that changed. The Court sent down a flurry of decisions gutting various federal laws, the most important of which were a handful of provisions of the National Industrial Recovery Act, a cornerstone of the New Deal. FDR fumed, but NIRA was scheduled to expire soon anyway so he said little publicly. He then went on to win a landslide reelection on November 3, 1936.

Secure in this demonstration of his popularity, FDR began thinking about how to bring the Court to heel. Working in secret—which would prove to be a mistake—he eventually formulated a plan that would add a justice for every justice over 70. This would give him a reliable liberal majority.

FDR announced his plan on February 5, 1937. On March 29 the Court handed down its decision in West Coast Hotel v. Parrish, a case concerning a minimum wage law in Washington State. And guess what? One of the conservatives who often voted with the Horsemen switched to the liberal side and upheld the minimum wage. That vote change was the "switch in time," and since it doomed FDR's scheme it was said to have "saved nine."

But wait. Modern historians mostly agree that this isn't what actually happened. The Supreme Court held its conference on West Coast Hotel on December 19, 1936, nearly two months before FDR announced his court plan. That was when the vote switch happened, and since nobody knew at the time what FDR was up to, his threat to pack the court obviously had nothing to do with it.

The next big set of New Deal cases are referred to collectively as the Labor Board Cases. All of them were decided in the government's favor, but the conference for those cases was held on February 27, by which time it was pretty clear that the court packing scheme was already doomed. It's unlikely that FDR's threats influenced the vote.

And there's one more thing: the 1935 cases that so disturbed FDR were almost all unanimous. There was no reactionary minority thwarting the will of the people, it was the entire Court. Even the most liberal members agreed that certain features of the New Deal had simply gone too far.

The bottom line here is that the Court almost certainly revised its thinking all by itself. FDR's threats to its integrity had little or nothing to do with it. And a few months later one of the Horsemen retired and a couple of the others started to vote more liberally. FDR had the Court he wanted, and he would have gotten it even if he had done nothing.

POSTSCRIPT: And what's the lesson for today? I'm not sure there is one. It shows that threats didn't have any effect on the Court, but I don't think anyone believes that threats would have any effect on today's ideologues anyway. If you're going to pack the court, the only way to do it is to actually do it.

Aside from that it's just an interesting historical tidbit.

The New York Time informs me that the latest craze among our youth is the "0.5 selfie"—so named because you tap 0.5 on your smartphone to engage wide angle mode and produce a distorted picture.

But that's nothing. Behold the old-school 0.2 selfie. No smartphone required.

May 21, 2022 — La Roche-Guyon, France

UPDATE: This report is probably wrong. More here.


The Associated Press reports that about 1.7 million voters switched to a different political party in 2021:

Over the last year, roughly two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation shifted to the Republican Party. In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

Why so many new Republicans?

Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats’ support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party’s inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice....“It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right,” said Smith.

....39-year-old homemaker Jessica Kroells says she can no longer vote for Democrats, despite being a reliable Democratic voter up until 2016....“The party itself is no longer Democrat, it’s progressive socialism,” she said, specifically condemning Biden’s plan to eliminate billions of dollars in student debt.

I don't know if this is typical, but it jibes with my personal experience. Among people who are a little fuzzy about their party ID, many of them find the Democratic Party scarier than the Republican Party. Given the state of the modern GOP, that's quite an indictment.

The modern Republican Party has two main branches. The first is the social conservative branch, which cares about abortion, guns, sex, and so forth. The second is the business branch, which cares mostly about things like taxes and regulations.

Likewise, there are two main branches of conservative legal theory. The first is originalism, which says the Constitution should be interpreted in the way the framers originally understood it. Social conservatives rely heavily on originalist interpretations of the Constitution for obvious reasons: the Constitution was written more than 200 years ago, at a time when virtually everyone was socially conservative by modern standards. Originalism is almost guaranteed to produce socially conservative results.

The second branch of conservative legal theory is the Law and Economics movement, which applies economic reasoning to the law and relies on things like cost-benefit analysis, calculations of consumer welfare, and financial efficiency. It's important because, surprisingly, the Constitution isn't especially conservative when it comes to economics and regulation: Article I gives Congress plenary authority over taxation while the interstate commerce clause gives Congress broad authority over business regulation (and has almost from the beginning). This means that business conservatives need something besides originalism, and that's where Law and Economics comes in. It took shape beginning in the late '70s, and by now about half of all federal judges have attended one of the two-week seminars on the subject held by the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges.

All of this throat clearing is in service of a simple point: both of these legal theories are fairly easy to understand and explain. What's more, to most people they make sense. There are lots of problems with originalism below the surface, but the notion that original intent matters is pretty persuasive if you don't know about those problems. Likewise, it also makes sense that you should understand economic consequences if you're going to make law in the realm of economics.

Now, then, let's compare that to Dahlia Lithwick's defense of liberal lawmaking in a recent interview with Ezra Klein. Apologies for the long excerpt, but it's key to the point I'm going to make:

There’s a really, really robust set of rights that is not in the Bill of Rights. It’s lashed to the sort of liberty interests that are fleshed out with the 14th Amendment.

And this is a set of rights, and it’s so important to understand this, and in some sense, so frustrating the Democrats at those Ketanji Brown Jackson hearings didn’t argue this. They’re actually definitional when you were trying to think about what it meant to emancipate former slaves, because if you were former slaves and suddenly you were free, all of the free speech rights in the world and all of the right to bear arms in the world, even using a militia clause, all of those rights are meaningless if you do not have, fundamentally, bodily autonomy and family autonomy.

And so when you look at the drafting of the 14th Amendment and so much of this history, I just want to point to Peggy Cooper Davis, who has done amazing scholarship. Try to put meat on the bones of what it meant to truly be free. And what they were doing when they were thinking about the sort of liberty interest protected by the 14th Amendment that the rest of the Constitution didn’t get at, it was the idea that if somebody can rape your wife, you are not free. If families could be separated, if your children could be sold into slavery over your objections, you were not free.

If husbands and wives were treated as chattel and they were economic instrumentalities, but they were not, in fact, a family unit, they were not free. And there’s amazing, heartbreakingly beautiful language about trying to enforce that idea that the cornerstone of freedom is the ability to define what a family is, to marry who you love, to raise children as you see fit.

And if this all sounds still like peanut butter and cotton candy, I would just say that the whole line of cases that follows that Myers, Pierce, a whole bunch of cases that have to do with how your children are educated, how they are raised, in some sense, it has its apogee in Loving v. Virginia, the anti-miscegenation case that says you cannot be free if you cannot construct the family that you want to construct.

And all of that becomes this kind of unenumerated rights substantive due process. It’s so fundamental to what it meant to be free, and to suggest that, oh, you know Griswold v. Connecticut was invented out of plain air by these weird hippie justices who wanted to give people the right to use contraception is to ignore all of that framing language and ideology about what the 14th Amendment sought to protect in terms of what your liberty interests were.

Etc.

Unless you're already ensconced in the legal world, I assume you didn't really understand a word of that. Right? And that's not a hit on Lithwick—although she could have done better. The fact is that the liberal theory she's talking about here—using the language of substantive due process and "bodily autonomy"—is neither simple nor persuasive to the ordinary schmoe. Nobody ever explains it well at a layman's level. Conservatives say, "Abortion isn't mentioned anywhere in the Constitution and it was illegal almost everywhere before 1973." In response, liberals stutter and stammer and reel off a few hundred incomprehensible words about a complicated and unintuitive legal doctrine.

So do I have a point to make here, as I promised? Indeed I do: we liberals need to talk prettier. Constitutional law is just one area in which liberals, regardless of whether they're right or wrong, speak in an opaque, convoluted language that ordinary people can barely make sense of. If we want to win the war of public opinion—and in a democracy that's really the only war that matters—we need to do better.

Last night I wrote that liberals need to forcefully address the question of whether a fetus is a human life that deserves the same legal protections as any other human life. Primarily this is because it's the ground on which abortion opponents stand, so it can't be ignored. But it's also key to Alito's decision in Dobbs, something he mentions over and over:

Roe’s defenders characterize the abortion right as similar to the rights recognized in past decisions involving matters such as intimate sexual relations, contraception, and marriage, but abortion is fundamentally different, as both Roe and Casey acknowledged, because it destroys what those decisions called “fetal life” and what the law now before us describes as an “unborn human being.”

....What sharply distinguishes the abortion right from the
rights recognized in the cases on which Roe and Casey rely
is something that both those decisions acknowledged: Abortion destroys what those decisions call “potential life” and what the law at issue in this case regards as the life of an “unborn human being.”...None of the other decisions cited by Roe and Casey involved the critical moral question posed by abortion. They are therefore inapposite.

....It is impossible to defend Roe based on prior precedent because all of the precedents Roe cited, including Griswold and Eisenstadt, were critically different for a reason that we have explained: None of those cases involved the destruction of what Roe called “potential life.”

....The most striking feature of the dissent is the absence of any serious discussion of the legitimacy of the States’ interest in protecting fetal life.

Etc.

Alito claims that he's taking no position on the question of fetal life ("our decision is not based on any view about when a State should regard pre-natal life as having rights or legally cognizable interests") but it nonetheless pervades his opinion. In his view, it's the key thing that makes abortion a vitally local decision.

This reasoning doesn't do much for me. Courts hand down decisions all the time that affect human life either directly or indirectly. Regardless, Alito is right in thinking that most people consider the question of life to be the key to abortion politics. And thanks to Alito's opinion, it's now the key to abortion law as well.