Month: December 2023

The federal government's fiscal year began two months ago and Congress still hasn't passed a defense appropriations bill. But it's not too late:

Lawmakers in both parties contend that, as speaker, Johnson is committed to passing a final bill and continuing the over six-decade streak of defense legislation becoming law each year, even if it means going against his desire to block the Pentagon abortion travel policy.

Wow! Congress has passed a defense funding bill every single year. That's some governmenting to be proud of. I'm glad they're committed to keeping this legendary streak going.

Adolf Hitler was famously voted into power and then appointed chancellor of Germany in 1933. There would not be another German election for more than a dozen years. We all know how this went: Germany started a war in 1939 which the Allies eventually won, killing about 3% of Germany's civilian population in the process.

Hamas was famously voted into power and then took control of Gaza in 2007. There would not be another election in Gaza for more dozen years. Once again, we all know how this went: Hamas started a war two months ago which Israel is in the process of winning, so far killing about 0.5% of Gaza's civilian population in the process.

But wait. Am I really comparing Hamas to Nazi Germany? Yes, I pretty much am. Their leaders have given repeated public interviews in which they clearly state their intentions: They will continue attacking Israel forever; they are proud to be martyrs; and they won't stop until Israel is destroyed. Unlike Nazi Germany, Hamas has nowhere near the power to carry out their version of Jewish genocide, but their ambitions are about the same.

Given this, is it surprising that after Hamas's ruthless attack on October 7 Israel will stop at nothing short of their complete destruction, just as we once stopped at nothing short of the complete destruction of Nazi power? It shouldn't be.

That said, there's a big difference between World War II and the Israel-Hamas war. We were not historically bitter enemies with Germany, and thanks to our obsession with Soviet power in Europe we quickly concluded real peace after our victory. Just the opposite is the case in the Middle East. Israel may "win" their war, but only at the cost of an ongoing slaughter that will generate even greater hatred among Palestinians and make genuine peace even less likely than it is now.

As I've said before, I envy people who have total certainty in their views of Israel and Gaza. I have nothing close. Israel has endured decades of various Arab coalitions trying to destroy them, and it's hard to understand how anyone can blame them for their deep and abiding desire for self defense and retaliation. At the same time, their treatment of Palestinians over the past couple of decades has been so gratuitously revolting that it's hard to understand how anyone can blame them for cheering on even a grotesque terrorist group like Hamas.

Both sides have an endless and frequently legitimate list of grievances. How can anyone not see that? And how do you get past it? Both sides really and truly want to destroy the other at this point. It's not a facade or false consciousness or anything like that. It's how they really feel.

Even in theory, is there any answer?

Boxes come and go around here. Some get used for a while and some are one-hit wonders. Who knows why? But through it all, this box is everyone's favorite. It's been sitting next to the sofa for many years and will probably stay there for many more.

Over at the Washington Post, Philip Bump questions Sean Hannity's claim that both California and Florida have suffered about the same death rate from COVID-19:

“Both your states, with such different approaches, which is pretty fascinating, were both lower, significantly lower than the national average,” he said. “These numbers come straight from the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention].”

....As it turns out, it’s not clear where Hannity’s numbers came from. There’s no obvious source for the 250-per-100,000-residents number that Hannity showed.

Actually, there is a clear source for Hannity's numbers: as Hannity says, they come straight from the CDC:

Florida's raw death rate from COVID-19 is substantially higher than California's. The reason the CDC's numbers are so close is because they've been age adjusted. COVID-19 was far more deadly among the elderly than it was among the young, so states with older populations are naturally going to have a higher death rate even if they do everything right. The CDC adjusts for this, a routine correction in cases where age matters (suicide rates, cancer rates, etc.).

Now, Bump also makes a point about Florida's death rate staying high after vaccines were introduced, while California's death rate flattened out. This is true. Prior to vaccines, Florida had a lower age-adjusted death rate than California. But in the year 2021 Florida's death rate from COVID-19 was 12% higher than California's. Over the past three months it's been 27% higher—which is actually a little odd since neither state has any COVID restrictions in place anymore.

Bottom line: Hannity's numbers were legit and honestly sourced. Since the start of the pandemic, California and Florida have had similar death rates from COVID-19. However, Florida has had a lower vaccination rate than California, which is probably due at least in part to general COVID skepticism from DeSantis and his handpicked health department. Since the start of 2021, this is why Florida's death rate has been significantly higher than California's.

UPDATE: I can't find the age adjustments for each state. But in case you're curious, here's the cumulative COVID-19 death toll for a single age group:

As you can see, if you restrict yourself to a single age group Florida has a cumulative death toll about 8% higher than California. That's a noticeable difference, though not huge.

You don't have George Santos to kick around anymore. But at least we can still throw his ass in jail.