Over at the Washington Post, Philip Bump questions Sean Hannity's claim that both California and Florida have suffered about the same death rate from COVID-19:
“Both your states, with such different approaches, which is pretty fascinating, were both lower, significantly lower than the national average,” he said. “These numbers come straight from the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention].”
....As it turns out, it’s not clear where Hannity’s numbers came from. There’s no obvious source for the 250-per-100,000-residents number that Hannity showed.
Actually, there is a clear source for Hannity's numbers: as Hannity says, they come straight from the CDC:
Florida's raw death rate from COVID-19 is substantially higher than California's. The reason the CDC's numbers are so close is because they've been age adjusted. COVID-19 was far more deadly among the elderly than it was among the young, so states with older populations are naturally going to have a higher death rate even if they do everything right. The CDC adjusts for this, a routine correction in cases where age matters (suicide rates, cancer rates, etc.).
Now, Bump also makes a point about Florida's death rate staying high after vaccines were introduced, while California's death rate flattened out. This is true. Prior to vaccines, Florida had a lower age-adjusted death rate than California. But in the year 2021 Florida's death rate from COVID-19 was 12% higher than California's. Over the past three months it's been 27% higher—which is actually a little odd since neither state has any COVID restrictions in place anymore.
Bottom line: Hannity's numbers were legit and honestly sourced. Since the start of the pandemic, California and Florida have had similar death rates from COVID-19. However, Florida has had a lower vaccination rate than California, which is probably due at least in part to general COVID skepticism from DeSantis and his handpicked health department. Since the start of 2021, this is why Florida's death rate has been significantly higher than California's.
UPDATE: I can't find the age adjustments for each state. But in case you're curious, here's the cumulative COVID-19 death toll for a single age group:
As you can see, if you restrict yourself to a single age group Florida has a cumulative death toll about 8% higher than California. That's a noticeable difference, though not huge.
I just can't emphasize enough how happy I am that arguing over Covid-19 stats is largely a thing of the past.
Or even more to the point, arguing about it while the data was still developing, and there was a raging narcissist who exerted an unending pressure for his team, both administrative and political to exonerate him at every turn, which polluted both facts and narratives in endless way.
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I think "age-adjusted excess all cause mortality" would be an interesting data point to look at. I don't trust DeSantis's health department to accurately record covid deaths.
This. Florida was hiding COVID deaths early on by refusing to count snowbirds and tourists.
Then they stopped testing people who died.
And yet they still ended up higher.
"Over the past three months it's been 27% higher—which is actually a little odd since neither state has any COVID restrictions in place anymore."
-> it doesn't seem odd to me that a state that now discourages vaccination is doing worse than a state that encourages them. (unless there is no discrepancy in vaccination rate, which I haven't checked).
I'm still curious how Florida changed the criteria for how covid deaths were reported
The impacts of Covid policy are best measured on multiple dimensions.
Lockdowns likely reduced Covid deaths, but even that idea is disputed by some. Lockdowns also adversely impacted learning, business survival etc. The secondary impacts of lost learning, more business failures etc will, ultimately, be measured in perimeters such as lower life expectancy.
While I don't know the proper math (how many extra people are you willing to let die of Covid, to save X number of businesses etc) there is a clear tradeoff. Stated differently, for example, you could materially reduce deaths in cars, if you physically limited all cars to 15 miles per hour: public policy often has to make complex tradeoffs that are hard to measure, and balance death against other factors.
Sure, but having the per capita to divide the wealth with is better than not.
I believe exactly zero numbers that Florida itself has reported. Any numbers that are filtered through any Florida agency are suspect at best, absolute bullshit at worst.
I’m not sure that I understand what “age adjusted death” rates means. I think dead is dead. I don’t think Meatball Ron’s entitled to a discount rate for old people dying. If your population has a disproportionately high number of old people that means you need to take extra precautions.
Have you looked at disability claims filed in California? There was a historically massive spike due to Omicron.
Maine has an older population than Florida. It's death rate was significantly lower -- Florida's death rate was 50% higher than Maine's. (and before you ask, Maine also has more tourists per capita than Florida does, so greater contact with outsiders does not account for Florida's higher numbers)