Month: October 2024

Are you still hungering for great economic news? Over the past three years the poverty rate among working-age adults has averaged 9.3%:

This is not quite a 50-year record, but only because Biden set that record last year.

Want more about how great the economy has been? Over the past three years GDP has grown 1.4% faster than potential GDP:

This is not quite a 50-year record. The economy was slightly hotter during the dotcom boom of the late '90s. But it's still pretty damn strong.

Do you want to know how good the economy is? Over the past three years unemployment has averaged 3.8%. This is the lowest sustained rate of unemployment of the entire past half century.

Better than Morning in America. Better than the dotcom boom. Better than Trump. The best in more than 50 years.

Here's something I ran into sort of by accident today. It shows how long it takes between filing a new business application and actually starting up:

This is for retail stores. The time it takes to get the doors open has increased from 18 weeks to 30 weeks in only fifteen years.

This same increase is seen in other business sectors too, but retail is the worst.

I don't really know how to interpret this. Is it purely red tape? Or is there more to it? Does it have something to do with the increased domination of chain and franchise retail compared to mom-and-pop stores? Have retail outlets gotten bigger and more complex over time? I wonder what's going on?

Here is the trajectory of growing income inequality over the past half century:

As measured by the GINI metric, inequality skyrocketed during the '70s and '80s. Then, very abruptly in 1993, it slowed down. Inequality has been growing steadily ever since, but at a moderate rate. Nevertheless, the US now has the highest income inequality of any advanced economy in the world—by far.

But what happened in 1993? That's a bit of a mystery.

Here's another look at the federal budget over the next decade. It comes from the Congressional Budget Office:

Nobody wants to cut Social Security or Medicare. Pensions are legally obligated. Veterans and defense have bipartisan support against cuts. And interest on the debt has to be paid.

That leaves a bit under $2 trillion. It includes Medicaid and all other social welfare spending, plus all ordinary domestic spending (national parks, the FBI, the EPA, crop subsidies, etc. etc.). You would have to cut it 100% to eliminate the federal deficit.

Any other ideas?

This now the modal Elon Musk tweet:

I know I've asked this before, but what the hell happened to the guy? His feed these days is nothing but an endless firehose of retweeted lies and conspiracy theories, and not even remotely believable ones. It's just made-up Alex Jones level lunacy about immigrants and FEMA that's meant solely to outrage the true believers who will blindly accept anything he says. Nobody else over the age of five believes a word of it.

But why? It's self destructive, makes him look like a moron, and persuades no one. At least Donald Trump does this stuff because he wants to win an election. What's Musk's motivation?

What's the leading cause of death in the United States? Heart disease. But what's the fastest growing cause of death? Both accidental poisoning and alcoholic liver disease are up a lot, but the winner—by a mile—turns out to be "other infectious and parasitic diseases," which have gone up an astonishing 1500% since 2000. Malnutrition deaths have nearly doubled.

Here are the top 20 growth diseases in the US. It's drawn from the CDC's list of 113 causes of death, and I included only diseases with at least one death per 100,000 in 2000.

Below that is the top 20 list of biggest decliners. Atherosclerosis—blocked arteries—is the big winner, down 71% since 2000. Hooray for statins and bypass surgery! Also among the big decliners are HIV, ulcers, and smoke inhalation.

Here is Hilbert waiting patiently in the bushes for me to come home. Don't worry, my little meatloaf! I'll be back tomorrow.

Here is the growth of the labor force participation rate since Joe Biden took office. This is for prime-age workers (age 25-54).

Both men and women are now working at higher rates than at any time since the end of the Great Recession.