Among Republicans, sympathy for Israel far outweighs sympathy for the Palestinians, and this hasn't changed much over the years. The story among Democrats is different. Although sympathy for Israel has long been firmly positive, around 2015 it began to steadily deteriorate. Then, in 2023—but before the Gaza war started—it finally went negative, with more Democrats supporting the Palestinians than Israel:
What happened in 2015 to cause this decline among Democrats? Bibi Netanyahu's speech to Congress flaying Barack Obama's Iran treaty? Rising settler violence against Palestinians? Growing disillusionment over Israel's rightward drift?
I don't know. The change is driven largely by young Democrats, but not exclusively, and there's no apparent difference between college and non-college voters. So it seems unlikely to be the result of a sudden shift among university faculty or administrators.
In any case, the partisan divide is now huge. Support for Israel's war in Gaza is net +48% among Republicans but -27% among Democrats. The age divide is equally huge: among older voters net support for the war is +29% compared to -37% among the young.
Right about then is when the Israeli government stopped appealing for bipartisan U.S. support and lined up solidly behind the Republicans. The result was exactly as one would expect.
Bingo.
And anyone who disagrees with the current Israeli government must be an anti-Semite.
Exactly. It seemed insane at the time and still does. One of the few things that had broad bipartisan support and Bibi had to go ahead and firmly align himself with the Republican party and polarize support for Israel.
Remember when Obama abstained from a Security Council settlements resolution? And Netanyahu humiliated Biden by announcing more settlements while Biden was in Israel? 2016.
Well, at the time, we thought Bibi had "humiliated" Biden. In light of recent affairs, it's just as likely that Joe gave Bibi the high five for announcing he'd build hundreds of new settlements for Israel's illegal squatters.
Well, no, it isn't "just as likely." Moreover, as VP, Joe Biden had no real say in US policy toward Israel in general, and toward Israeli settlements in particular.
Yep - Netanyahu / likud and his supporters are not my friends. Orthodox fanatics were always on my shit list, but Netanyahu becoming a Republican sympathizer was the final straw. So sorry for the secular folks in Israel. They failed.
It kinda looks like national support for Israel has cratered, with independents falling 13% and Democrats falling 16% since 2021. Even Republicans have fallen a little bit, even if just 3%. This is, as are most thing, not a "both sides" issue.
The Dems are part of a national trend, much like with climate change, gun safety, LGBTQ rights, women's reproductive care, etc. This is not, as is regularly presented, the Dems as outliers but the Dems as leaders.
Don't forget that Democrats are also leading the pro- censorship/anti - free speech trend and now leading in pro-plagiarism.
My favorite part about internet commentary is when someone makes a statement and backs it up with easily verifiable evidence, and then a troll shows up with an insulting non sequitur. I love this!
Yes. The Andy Kauffman school of comedy.
Yeah, it's pretty sweet! Makes one wonder, can a comment be so irrelevant it doesn't even qualify as non seqitur?
Obvious troll is obvious but...
Pro-censorship/anti-free speech = Florida's "Don't say gay" bill and removing books from school libraries.
Damn those Democrats! They made the Republicans censor books and reign in free speech! The dirty rats!
...., which is why the Republicans in the House block support to Israel.
(Actually because Trump is pissed of at Netanyahu because he called Biden immediately after the elections).
I first remember seeing Netenyahu on "Good Morning America" in the early 80's, as a young spokesperson for the Israeli government, while having breakfast and watching the news before heading off to high schoold. I remember thinking even way back then, "This guy is a slick asshole".
In 2012, he was really pushing for Romney's election. Now, it's not like we don't interfere in other countries elections, but this really was going too far for someone who was supposed to be our ally.
Then follow that up with the speech to Congress, where he completely circumvented normal protocols and arranged it all through the Republicans... That's enough for me as an older liberal to feel less positive about Israel than I used to.
(My father-in-law was one of the original Israeli settlers back in '46, as a 5 year old refugee from the German/Polish border. Not a great time to be born a Jew in that area. He & his mother were the only two people left from their village by the end of the war. But he left Israel in the 60's, and lived in the US until he died.)
Now, for the kids, they've grown up in a time when Israel hasn't been seen as the scrappy underdog, bravely fighting the bullies around them. They have no recollection of the terrorism in the 70's and the fighting in the 80's. They've only seen the right wing Israeli government being fairly miserable. But what specifically started the downturn in 2015, I don't know, other than that really did seem to be around the time the Israeli government started going very explicitly partisan behind the Republicans.
I can't say I remember anything specific, but my vague recollection is of Netanyahu becoming more openly contemptuous of both Obama and congressional Democrats and more obviously lobbying against and bad-mouthing the Iran deal, trying to torpedo it.
This, I just learned via googling, was in advance of IAEA inspections in late 2015 that were needed for a big step in sanctions easing, per a WH press release (https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal). This would explain Netanyahu going all turbo-charged against Obama just then, for sure.
And that timing about squares with very openly partisan meddling in our politics in a way that I can't remember any other country doing; Bibi married the gop without benefit of clergy. So the Ds' reaction should be no surprise.
It's also important that he worked very hard to identify his personal interests with those of the Israeli state-- as he's conspicuously doing now-- so that antipathy to him translates easily into antipathy to Israel. And antipathy to him personally is very easy to understand.
I also think that more information started coming out in the US about how badly the people in Gaza and West Bank were being treated by Israel and how Bibi was allowing more and more of their land in the West Bank to be illegally take by Israeli settlers. I have friends who had had no idea that any of that was going on because the US media gave it so little coverage. They learned about it from younger members of their families and were shocked when they fact-checked their claims.
Netanyahu was trying to goad Obama into attacking Iran for him and Obama wasn't having it as I remember. His refusal to get involved in another ME war incensed Bibi.
Yes, the JCPOA was exactly 180 degrees away from what Netanyahu wanted and he threw absolutely everything he had into wrecking it.
And then imagine poor Bibi's disappointment that after all his conspicuous and public gop-fluffing he couldn't flatter or bully trump into doing it either. The Saudis got to him first and with real artfulness laid on the kitsch he resonates to.
Asking whether respondents are sympathetic to Israel, and asking whether they are *more* sympathetic to Israel or to the Palestinians, are two very different questions.
Hmmm, Bibi's dishonest, the "settlers" are thugs, the ultra orthodox are religious fanatics and grifters. Then came October 7, which was horrific. Then came the aerial bombing, was was horrific. Gaza has been reduced to a smoking ruin. Tens of thousands killed, millions homeless and without adequate food and medical care. Reminds this old guy of what the US did in Vietnam and Iraq.
When Bibi threw in with the Republicans, I said, that's it. I'm against aid to Israel, which just uses it to stockpile weapons. I mostly don't buy the Israel as colonialism stuff, and the Palestinians have had corrupt leadership going way back. Quite the mess. But Israel has clearly shown its intent to take over "from the river to the sea." Let them work it out now. Looks like the UN is going to charge Israel with war crimes. Will the US veto it? Abstain? Blame that on the Israel lobby.
iran is probably happy that the taliban keeps them from sliding to the bottom of the list of shittiest theocracies, and israel is probably lower than it needs to be, but the threats they face aren't imaginary
so i find it hard to criticize their actions while sipping coffee here in my comfy suburban home
Nice try at bothsidesing (allsidesing?) it. But neither Iran nor the Taliban are funded or armed by the US government. Israel is, so it's completely appropriate for American taxpayers to question Israel's actions, even from our comfortable suburban homes.
absolutely nothing in my comment was meant to imply israel is above criticism
I do not find it hard to sip coffee in my comfy suburban home and point out that Israel is run by violent fanatics.
Does sipping coffee in a comfy urban home count?
not in texas or florida
I grew up in WW2 and the era of the formation of Israel. I got a full load of Poor Little Picked on Israel. I also got a full load of the Holocaust from photos of the death camps my older brother brought home.
I see that the power balance has shifted from Poor Little Picked on Israel to Bully Israel. I think Israel kicked a PR own goal.
I thought Israel had the best intelligence in the world. I thought they had sources inside the PLO and Hamas. They certainly have sources inside the US government. Pollard.
I am puzzled by what Hamas thought it would accomplish. I think they also kicked an own goal. Israel just kicked harder. If Israel goes full bore on cleaning Gaza of Palestinians, it will be a disastrous own goal. If they succeed at that the West Bank is next.
Prior to Oct 7th, Palestinians were openly protesting Hamas in places in Gaza. Something had to be done.
I am puzzled by what Hamas thought it would accomplish.
Oh, they were completely betting on a devastating response from Israel that would kill thousands of their own citizens, probably hoping it would draw the other Arab states and Iran into a wider Middle East conflagration ending in Israel's destruction. They got the first part, but don't seem to have succeded in triggering the second. Yet.
" They got the first part, but don't seem to have succeded in triggering the second. "
They will be happy enough with that. They don't count deaths in Gaza as a negative, and it gives them good PR in the West.
Starting a wider war would have been a bonus. What Hamas (and Iran) really wanted was to torpedo the parade of Gulf states normalizing relations with Israel. That mission has been accomplished. After this, the Saudis are going to have a very hard time doing so in the absence of a real path to a two-state solution. Hell, Israel just might manage to destroy its peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan the way they are going.
Israel's bluster about how it's going to destroy Hamas is just that. Israel can't assassinate all of the leadership in other countries, and it can't eliminate all of the foot soldiers in Gaza. They'll wreck a lot of the infrastructure, though they haven't managed to stop the rocket attacks yet. But, if you're on the revanchist side of things, military infrastructure is useless if you just let it sit there. Hamas expended their resources, and they have almost certainly bought a lot with it.
The idea that Hamas won't have a role in governing Gaza when this is done is ludicrous. They won't have an official role, but Gaza will be ungovernable if they aren't involved. This idea that Fatah will be able to walk in and set up shop and run Gaza is disconnected to reality. The population really hates them, for some very valid reasons. They'll have to come to an accommodation with Hamas, with Hamas doing a lot of the day-to-day work on the ground.
Unless, of course, Israel decides that they want to go all in on becoming a pariah state by cleansing Gaza of all of its Palestinians.
Hamas counts all this as a win.
Is it really surprising that a country that just wiped out 20,000 innocent people has seen its support falter?
Thank you. Half of them children.
While I agree with most the above, I suggest that around the late oughts / early teens people suddenly found it easier to research the history of the region and indpendtly confirm the official narrative. Is it any surprise that they found out the official narrative was nothing more than a massive propaganda blitz to the benefit of Israel? Or that Zionism was and is a rather nasty ideology to justify lebensraum from almost the very beginning of its formulation?
"I suggest that around the late oughts / early teens people suddenly found it easier to research the history of the region and indpendtly confirm the official narrative."
LOL!
Generation Z is the least informed generation for their age despite it being easier to look up history.
It's very easy these days to look up shit on the web; it's lot harder to actually sift those results for legitimate or reliable historical analysis. Unfortunately, most people don't know the difference.
Doh. Meant to reply to ScentofViolets, not feed the troll.
Fall in a well, troll.
True for me. I bought the Israeli line, but now I can easily check Wikipedia. Or read the UN Charter, etc.
Of course it's all about Bibi. It was his policies that were blowing up any prospects of a 2-state solution.
His speech attacking Obama was the nail in the coffin. I said it then, that we shouldn't be giving Israel the nearly $4B annually in aid if he's going to bite the hand that feeds it.
30 years of intransigent West Bank settlements. Takes a toll.
People who have not re-calibrated their views since 1995, I guess they will die off.
"science advances one funeral at a time" Max Planck
Of course it's all about Bibi. It was his policies that were blowing up any prospects of a 2-state solution.
I loathe Netanyahu and his whole coalition, but all they've really done is to make explicit what has been Israeli policy since 1967.
Well, policy since about 1995 anyway
I agree with what most folks have said above: spending the better part of 10 years telling anyone who still supported a two-state solution or had a problem with letting ultra-orthodox, right-wing settlers just go hog wild on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem to go fuck themselves, along with openly undermining the Obama administration at every turn in its negotiations with Iran, and cozying up to authoritarian shits like Trump and Putin have, let's say, left a bad taste in a lot of folks' mouths. That doesn't excuse the outright antisemitic bullshit you sometimes hear from pro-Palestinian protesters these days, to say nothing of Hamas's horrible attack on 10/7, but Netanyahu did work awful hard to completely torch any sympathy or goodwill people on the left -- including a lot of American Jews -- might have otherwise had for Israel up to that point.
If you support Israel, vote Republican.
You can keep voting in Democratic primaries if you want so you have influence on who they nominate and elect, but for the actual elections, vote Republican.
It's that simple.
Republicans in the House are now blocking support to Israel, so it is not useful for an Israeli supporter to vote for them.
Let me fix this: if you support Bibi vote Republican, if you support peace and a more stable Israel for future generations for Democratic.
Ah... because voting for the party that is more sympathetic to the Palestinians (amazingly, while the Palestinians are holding a bunch of American hostages!) is the best way to support Israel?!
Pull the other one... it has bells on it.
So to be pro Israel one has to be anti Palestine- got it. I will give this no need to think about anything, just pure visceral reactionism - this kind of mindset will continue to lead to war but maybe that’s what you want- do you even think any Palestinian has a right to live in the occupied territories? You are probably very comfortable with getting rid of them all.
???????? ???????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ???????? ???????? ???????????????? ????????????????????????????????????- ???????????? ????????.
Pretty much, at least until the Palestinians start forming governments that are not tainted by terrorism and stop supporting terrorist organizations. https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-palestinians-opinion-poll-wartime-views-a0baade915619cd070b5393844bc4514
BTW, once again, are you forgetting that Hamas, which is supported by the majority of Palestinians, is holding American hostages?
I'm curious how you think you can be pro-Israel without being anti-Palestine. Was it also possible during WWII to be pro-American without being anti-Germany? Only if you considered supporting eliminating the Nazis at all cost (including hundreds of thousands or millions of dead Germans) to be supporting Germany. By that definition, I and Netanyahu are pro-Palestine. Be happy!
The stupidity of Netanyahu's US policy can be seen in the comments on Gaza in Kevin's blog --- people here assume the worst on all matters related to Israel, even coming uncomfortably close in some cases to siding with genocidal Islamist murders like Hamas. It makes the position of many normie liberals like me that Israel on the West Bank is bad, but Hamas is evil and needs to be destroyed.
Meh. This normie liberal does pretty much assume the worst about Israel nowadays. And also assume the worst about Hamas. My position is that there aren't any good guys in this conflict, and the fact that the US is supporting one side is insane.
The problem is that destroying Hamas isn't within Israel's capabilities, if one defines "Hamas" as "a large group that has popular support to continue attacking Israel in whatever manner is feasible." The current campaign may wipe out a good portion of its strength, leadership, and infrastructure. There is even a very small chance that it might put paid to the large group with popular support to continue attacking Israel in whatever manner is feasible that goes by the name "Hamas."
However, it is also 100% guaranteed to make the Palestinians hate Israel even more than they already do. Hamas, or whatever replaces them, will have no trouble recruiting more people. It won't be long before Israel finds themselves exactly where they were six months ago.
The problem is that Israel has no strategy. They launched this operation with no clue as to what they are going to do with Gaza when its done. They still don't have any idea. They haven't had a strategy since 1967, beyond, "If we seize enough land and make Palestinians' lives miserable enough, maybe they'll just disappear."
Only idiots get themselves caught up in this sort of situation without any plan for how to get out of it.
This has been one of my questions about Israel: what exactly is Israel's longterm plan?
They don't have one. The only factor driving the action right now is that Bibi is pretty sure that the day this war ends will be the day he loses his job. And if that happens he will probably get prosecuted for corruption. So he has every incentive to continue/escalate things.
Short term thinking is the only thinking happening among Israeli leadership.
what exactly is Israel's longterm plan?
to start a war with iran and drag the US into the conflict
so i'd feel much better if they actually *didn't have a plan
breaking news:
U.S. and coalition forces struck Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen on Thursday, a dramatic escalation after the group ignored warnings from the Biden administration and other governments to stop attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
U.S.-led coalition strikes Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen
Based on his actions, it appears Netanyahu's intention is to gradually nibble away at West Bank lands and create facts on the ground that will prevent a Palestinian state from ever forming and hope for the world to adjust to this created reality and just throw up its hands at the entire thing and walk away from it.
Part of it is the Iron Dome and every so often "mowing the grass" in Gaza to keep Hamas from doing unacceptably bad things. Except Hamas did unacceptably bad things on October 7th.
Folks may not like it, but it was kinda working until a few months ago...
"Support for Israel's war in Gaza is net +48% among Republicans but -27% among Democrats. The age divide is equally huge: among older voters net support for the war is +29% compared to -37% among the young."
Putting these numbers together, It is clear that support for Israel's war in Gaza would be much more negative than -27% if we just queried YOUNG Democrats.
We can talk about Israel's lack of a strategy, but I am more concerned with the Democrats' lack of strategy. I know that Democratic strategists are big on turning out younger voters (see Simon Rosenberg's substack pages). It seems to me to be a no-brainer that Biden's enthusiastic support of Israel's war in Gaza can only have the opposite effect.
So, where will Democrats find the voters to make up for their now likely diminished and de-energized youth vote?
I suspect that you are overestimating how many young Dem voters Biden will lose with his policy. I mean, Trump is a MASSIVE motivation for this kind of voter. I think moving anti-Israel would cost Biden far more votes in the middle than it would gain him on the young Left.
Also, Biden is not as pro-Israel as is commonly supposed... if you actually listen to what the Administration is saying rather than accept the general narrative.
And I also think that Biden considers his course to be the correct course morally and for American interests and he is surprisingly principled about things; he has core beliefs and tries to live by them more than many politicians, so its kind of a moot discussion.
Citation needed.
But shouldn't one look at actions rather than words? Biden may have mumbled the occasional after-thought about reducing civilian casualties but the weapons keep flowing, even illegally bypassing congressional processes, and the diplomatic cover remains as strong as ever.
Biden had a chance to quit after one term and have his legacy be the president who defeated Trump and turned the course of history back to sanity. Alas, I would now put odds on his legacy ending up as being the president complict in the genocide of the Palestians, handing the Whitehouse back to Trump, and destoying the post WWII international legal frameworks.
That might not all come to pass, but it is the trajectory he, along with the rest of us, is on.
I agree with you.
Not even close. Most Americans reject the idea that there is a genocide going on over there (as they should; there is not unless you include Hamas' effort against Israel). Honestly, I expect this war in Gaza will recede in memory in a few years as Israel-Arab fighting so often does.
And the idea that he is destroying the post-WW2 international legal frameworks? What are you talking about?
I think his biggest legacies from his first term will be the climate provisions of IRA and his remarkable leadership in the Ukraine War. And if he beats Trump this year (please...), defeating Trumpism. A fine legacy I think.
Time will tell, this is not over. Regardless, legal matters are not determined by popularity polls.
This hinges on the criminality of Isreal's actions, which is undeniable absent MAGA-level abilities to endure cognitive dissonance. If such brazen crimes can be done with impunity and are supported and not even acknowledged by the most powerful member of the UN, then the UN and international law will be exposed as utterly worthless.
It has its flaws to be sure, but the UN and the geneva conventions are important even when, as most of its history can attest to, they are often just lip-serviced.
Rather than arguing further, I will just say that I think the Venn diagram of our fact universe does not have much overlap (and no, I am not even remotely MAGA)
Rather than a whole universe, there is really just one fact needed and that is the cutting off of food, fuel, water and electricity to a civilian population. This is not even diputed as far as I am aware. It was announced, it was carried out immediately, it continues now into a fourth month.
So there are only four possible ways to believe Isreal is not committing war crimes:
1. ignorance of reality
2. ignorance of international law
3. belief that the law does not apply to Isreal
4. MAGA-level abilities to endure cognitive dissonance (not the same as being an actual MAGA-lamaniac)
I' guessing you are in the three or four category?
Yglesias posted this exact chart on his blog today. It’s super misleading.
The basic story is that Dem support for Palestinians has increased a lot, so if you define everything as one versus the other it seems like Dems hate Israel.
I was just checking to see if someone had pointed this out.
The essay is by Musa al-Gharbi, and is visible here: https://www.slowboring.com/p/misunderstanding-antisemitism-in
He presents the data on favorable views toward Israel, which indicates that the "very/mostly favorable" position numbers have declined slightly over the past few years (for Democrats, independents, and Republicans), but this decline has been small.
The "net" sympathy numbers are driven instead primarily by increasing sympathy - among Democrats and independents - for Palestinians.
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