The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its statewide employment data today, which allows us to look once again at unemployment rates in states that stopped paying expanded UI benefits in June. Did this get people back to work faster? Did unemployment go down more in states that stopped the expanded benefits?
Last month the evidence suggested that stopping UI benefits early had no effect. Here's the latest data using unemployment figures from May through August:
- States that ended benefits early: -2.3 percentage points
- States that continued benefits: -3.4 percentage points
Once again, there's no effect. In fact, states that stopped UI benefits early performed worse than states that continued benefits.
For what it's worth, if you look at the percent difference instead of the percentage point difference, both sets of states saw the same decline in unemployment, about 5.1%.
There is some evidence from other studies that job seekers were more likely to find a job in states that stopped UI benefits early, but there's still no evidence that either employment levels or unemployment rates responded. Overall, it's hard to see that stopping UI benefits early had much effect at all on the labor market.
C'mon KD -
You KNOW this will give Lindsey Graham "the vapors"
& he's already been huffing El Jefe Maximo's farts.
Thank God COVID blocks your sense if smell.
The lazy ass theory of unemployment was always ridiculous and insulting to our work force. This situation has set up an experiment that is almost as good as a formal clinical trial to prove this once again. But data--no matter how convincing--will never convince GOP donors. "Lazy ass" is just too alluring a theory.
I would be willing to bet a steak dinner you're going to hear the same restaurant owners complaining about the labor shortage in December as they were back in May.
This will last as long as "we" Americans expect, no, DEMAND that we be allowed to enter any building w/o having to provided proof of vaccination
Mask wearing was always the vision we had of Asian countries. We thought "Oh, poor them, disease, dirty air whatever the reason - they're wearing masks".
Since we look down upon everyone else we rationalize NOT wearing a mask under the guise of freedom to choose
The problem is that we have no longer got ANY compassion for our fellow man.
This disease has sure brought that to the forefront for me.
That's why, on those rare occasions, when the Mrs and I do go out we mask up and tip very big.
These young people have a tough enough job as it is they don't need a bunch of anti vaxx - anti mask assholes getting in their faces, and they sure do get in their faces. They get rewarded for having the patience as far as the Mrs and I are concerned
But its this fear of COVID that is leading to hesitation on coming back into the work force. UI stinks and most Americans know it.
We are a hard working nation
While the data you present is compelling, I must relay a conversation I had with a Republican workmate: note, he is both well educated and not a Trumpy. He said ‘If government actions has no role in our post Covid unemployment situation, then explain this. Unemployment was 3.5% under Trump pre Covid. Today unemployment is 5.2% and yet lots of retail businesses can’t find employees.’
I expect two things are going on: A) it wasn't easy to find workers in 2017-2019, either but B) it's became especially noticeable in 2020-2021 because. a lot of establishments are re-opening (so they're under more pressure to ramp up workforces).
If, say, in 2019 your operation hadn't experienced any recent disputations, you'd have been enjoying stability and continuity, and so you weren't at that time facing (at least until after the pandemic) a sudden need to engage in a lot of hiring.
'Still no evidence that stopping UI benefits made a difference'
Oh, that's just because "Republican Economist" is an oxymoron.
But don't worry- McConnell is once again committed to tanking the economy (this isn't Treason.... why?), and I'm sure that will make a difference.
Simple chart explaining why Republicans want to destroy the Post Office,
https://old.reddit.com/r/coolguides/comments/pprdtp/shipping_company_guide/
Well, the whole point of ending unemployment benefits was the cruelty, not actually getting people back to work. Today's Republican Party has made an art out of finding appealing words to justify their desired policies that are actually driven by cruelty and greed.
Do a chart of COVID-19 infection rate X unemployment rate.
There is just no way to come to any such conclusions based on the info presented.
States that ended unemployment benefits first also had looser covid restrictions through the pandemic and had less of a decline in unemployment earlier and also mostly came back to normal before recent months. So they had less " bounce back" to go.
Plus they tended to be the states in the south that were hit first and harder by the latest covid wave and that would depress economic activity more .
So there you have two other effects that would correlate negatively offsetting or more whatever employment boost ending unemployment might have caused.