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Conservatism jumped in 2022—and then even more in 2023

Yesterday I posted evidence from GSS that young men became suddenly more conservative between 2021 and 2022. Here's a follow-up from a Gallup poll released today:

This is quite different. Young people have spiked upward in their conservatism, but middle-aged people have spiked up even more. And this is for both sexes, not just men. If this spike is actually limited to men—as seems likely—it's even bigger than Gallup shows.

The GSS data only went through 2022, while the biggest jumps in the Gallup data are in 2023. If this is accurate, we'll see something similar in the next round of GSS polling—but unfortunately this won't be until 2024. For now, I can say that Gallup's 2022 data is consistent with GSS (a smallish increase among age 30-49, no increase among age 50-64, and a slight decrease among age 65+) while the 2023 data shows enormous spikes everywhere except the elderly. Practically everyone is getting suddenly and substantially more conservative. This is a little hard to understand.

61 thoughts on “Conservatism jumped in 2022—and then even more in 2023

  1. Atticus

    Don't see why this is hard to understand. Seems like a natural reaction to the far left having some success pushing their agenda.

      1. Salamander

        * Not doing away with Social Security or Medicare.
        * Not defaulting on American's debt.
        * Continuing to fund the FBI. (yeah, that's weird...)

      2. Atticus

        There’s now real discussion about if children should have sex change procedures or if boys should be allowed to compete against girls in sports. The left fringe have pushed things like this to the forefront and a lot of people have had enough of the nonsense.

        1. Anandakos

          Why is it that "Conservatives" seem so IN-terested in young boys' sexuality? Enquiring minds want to know.

        2. Crissa

          Also, no, that's not happening. Children do not have sex-change operations.

          Making shit up and being afraid of it to abuse a minority a conservative value.

  2. D_Ohrk_E1

    Starting to think this is a case of participation (and to a lesser extent, selection) bias, to the point where weighting ends up amplifying rather than correcting biases.

    1. D_Ohrk_E1

      To my point, this poll does not make sense.

      According to PRRI, almost every conceivable demographic became more conservative with one of the largest shifts occurring with the youngest generation in a span of just two years.

      This seems exceedingly unlikely. This has to be broad (participation and selection) bias in the polling, producing wildly inaccurate sub-level demographic numbers.

    1. golack

      To a point, but also can reflect differences in perceived definitions. You may be "conservative" in your group, yet far more liberal than people 10 years ago.

  3. Bill Q

    I think this merely reflects a greater enthusiasm by conservatives for participating in polls, as noted by D_Ohrk_E1.

      1. skeptonomist

        Republicans picked up House seats in 2022, so that was a shift to the right. Of course the shift was in the normal direction, but that would apply to the poll results as well. Some elections and referenda since then have not shown a shift to the right.

  4. Salamander

    We don't even know what "conservative" means anymore. Definitely reporters and op-edders have not a clue. "Conservative" describes the Democratic Party, and has since the 1990s. "Far left liberal" describes an Eisenhower Republican.

    Today's Trumpublican Party? It's totally off the spectrum, into "feudalism" territory.

    Given that we don't know the actual questions asked for this survey, much less each responder's impression of "conservative", I don't put a lot of faith in these numbers. On the other hand, I'd like to see the matching surveys for women.

    1. Jim Carey

      Your point, that we don't know what conservative means anymore, is the point I was going to make. So, I decided I had to add something constructive. Two things.

      First, I think what it's come to mean is, "I'm right. If you agree with me, then we're right. If they disagree with us, then they're wrong."

      Second, I think we should all agree that a "progressive" is a person that is more open minded and less skeptical, and a "conservative" is less open minded and more skeptical. Further, a person that is not both open minded and skeptical is neither. If you're so open minded that you're no longer skeptical, then you're naïve, and if you're so skeptical that you're no longer open minded, then you're cynical.

      There ... problem solved. What's the next problem?

      1. Joel

        As a professional scientist for 40 years, I'm both open-minded and skeptical.

        Politically, I'd describe myself as fairly conservative by European standards, but left-wing by American standards. Ergo, a Democrat.

        1. Jim Carey

          I said this on a previous comment, but I'll say it again. American politics is like a tug of war in which everyone has forgotten that the center is between the two lines on the ground and instead assume that flag tied at the middle of the rope is the center.

          Translation: American politics is detached from reality. Think Neo before he met Morpheus. For God's sake, take the red pill.

          Editorial comment: Anyone that is not both open minded and skeptical, and yet claims to be a scientist is a SCINO (scientist in name only).

  5. jdubs

    These 'dramatic' changes get us to about where these polls stood in 2019 and 2020.
    So its probably nothing.

    If you want to build a narrative, the best fit with the data is that 'conservatism' was harder for people to identify with immediately after the January 6 coup attempt. After a few years, people have felt it was once again ok to self identify as conservative.

    Some anecdata- My parents both consider themselves conservative but voted a straight Democratic ticket in 2020 and 2022. Post Jan 6, both self identified as Democrats for the first time in their lives.

  6. CaliforniaDreaming

    We pretty much replace our leadership with the other party every presidency anyway. The only time we didn't was Reagan > Bush.

    R > D > R > R > D > R > D > R > D

    As a country we hate the party in power. It's also easier to throw rocks at an incumbent.

    1. Jerry O'Brien

      Thanks, reino2, you got it. The fraction of people claiming to be socially conservative this year is only three points higher than the average from 2009 to 2022. The year 2021 was an outlier at six points below that average.

      Kevin Drum is good enough to link to the Gallup article. To appreciate Kevin's post better, click the link and see the whole chart from 2000 to the present.

  7. skeptonomist

    The Gallup poll uses the usual sample of about 1000 people, giving a 95% confidence interval of +-4%. This is for the overall so statistical uncertainties for the age groups and by party are larger. How many people were in each of the groups that Kevin's bars represent? The changes in these groups are nothing to get excited about.

    If you fit a least-squares line to the overall results for social and economic conservatism/liberalism for the years 1999-2023 you might have something that is statistically meaningful. But even that change would probably not really mean much - there isn't that much difference between 1999 and 2023. This in itself is somewhat surprising in view of the supposed increased partisanship. Apparently partisan hostility has increased a lot more than people's basic attitudes on issues have changed.

  8. jte21

    I'll wager it's the economy. On paper, the economy is doing fine. For a lot of people however, they still feel insecure. Food and gas, while not as high as they were last year, still feel like they're taking a bigger chunk of their income. Rental prices have continued to rise unabated in a lot of areas. In many large cities, violent crime is down, but "quality of life" crimes like theft and vandalism are a big problem. Saying "I'm more conservative" means roughly "I'm pissed about things right now and blame Biden."

  9. AlHaqiqa

    Progressives can insult people they disagree with all they want, but that won't help them understand what is going on or to help them win elections.

    This poll was about social issues For instance, I always thought loyalty oaths were abhorrent, but I it's now the left demanding fealty to the DEI ideologues. I couldn't believe what went down in the McCarthy era, but people are losing their jobs by saying things that were okay 5 minutes ago.

    For instance, the Boston Globe had a story yesterday about a Harvard coach who was squeezed out of her job for saying "too many chiefs and not enough Indians." It claimed that her team was devastated over that comment. That was the one example they offered, but later in the article acknowledged that there were other issues, including hazing and being a general jerk. So not sure if it was Harvard or the Globe who thought the verbal offense was so egregious.

    Even more invidious is how the progressives are fine with turning children into eunuchs. Adults can make their own choices, but allowing children to maim themselves is bizarre.

    I think Kevin said that trans women competing in women's sports isn't a big deal because there are not many who are competing. Maybe not many, but some of the ones who are competing are causing a lot of damage. A good argument is NOT there aren't many of them. A good argument would be to explain why this is fair to women.

    Progressives/Democrats can continue this religion at their own peril.

    1. aldoushickman

      "trans women competing in women's sports isn't a big deal because there are not many who are competing. Maybe not many, but some of the ones who are competing are causing a lot of damage."

      If you are seriously concerned about an incredibly hyperniche issue as to which participant gets a trophy in sportsball, I have to assume that either (a) you personally are a top athlete within spitting distance of winning that sportsball trophy, or (b) you have an incredibly skewed sense of priorities. I'm betting it's (b).

      I would be thrilled to never hear another word about something as inconsequential as complaints about competitor X being insufficiently of this or that gender to play game Y, but for some deeply weird reasons you conservatives will. not. shut. up. about. it.

      1. Atticus

        You're attitude is a prime example of what is causing the backlash and the surge in people identifying as conservative. And you're too blind to see it.

        1. Crissa

          You lying about trans people is not 'backlash', it':s you lying.

          It goes onto the stack of you lying about letting women die for preventable pregnancy misadventure.

          1. Atticus

            Haven't lied about anything. But, it's comments like yours on this thread and the more recent one on the same topic that resulted in Trump being elected. Your wacko leftist ideas and denigration of anyone that doesn't submit to them are insufferable.

    2. bebopman

      You are not telling whole story which is not a surprise.

      The Globe reported that 16 former players, including former captains, voiced complaints about Stone’s inappropriate comments and behavior — alleging she has “denigrated” players “in ways that made them demoralized, anxious, confused, or seeking mental health support.”
      ….
      The Globe’s report contains accounts from players who claim Stone was insensitive to players’ mental health issues and downplayed injuries.
      ….
      Maryna G. Macdonald ’23, a starting player from the Ditidaht First Nation of Canada’s Vancouver Island, told the Globe that Stone looked directly at Macdonald when she made the )chiefs Indians) remark.
      …..
      Macdonald ultimately left the team, along with Taze E. Thompson, a descendant of the Cree Nation of Alberta, Canada, who was named the 2021-22 Ivy League Rookie of the Year. Thompson transferred to Northeastern University following the 2021-2022 season.

      Macdonald and Thompson are just two of the 14 recruited athletes who have quit the team since 2016, according to the Globe’s investigation.
      ( not to mention an assistant coach who quit … enough reason right there to get rid of a coach )

      If being liberal means allowing athletes, especially college amateurs, to receive proper health care, I’m fine with that. Grinding workers into dust has always been a conservative thing.
      …..
      Also, cons who demanded so strongly that parents be allowed to expose not just their own children but other parents’ children to deadly diseases now refuse to bow to parents’ wishes when it comes to other health care issues that don’t affect other parents’ kids. Wonder why. . … That’s my cons!

    3. Goosedat

      Fortunately, Pat Robertson cannot continue his proselytizing based on insulting anyone and anything that does not bow down to Christian patriarchal authority.

    4. Crissa

      You complain about Democrats, but then support bigotry, which is uhh...

      Your choice, but don't be surprised when you get called out on it.

  10. jrryjcksn

    It seems to me that this is an example of Terror Management Theory. The more people are afraid (particularly of death -- but also of things like loss of status), the more xenophobic, law and order, and "conservative" their world views become. That's the whole basic for today's Republican Party and Fox News, etc. Keep scaring them and they will get on board. Nowadays, everyone is scared (for good reason), so it's not surprising to see the movement in that direction. The book: "The Worm at the Core" is fascinating and enlightening on this topic...

  11. dspcole

    Who believes any poll these days? All they do is give you the preferences of people who answer polls…

  12. Talphon

    The first batch of truly progressive children i.e. those who grew up in online environments that were extremely progressive are now going through the late teen/early twenties period. This is a very difficult transition for people with two completely different sets of values. So what I think is happening is that moderately liberal people are coming face to face with some more extreme progressive ideas being presented by their children. This makes this period quite stressful for both parties and may be a bit of an eye opener for middle-aged parents.

    1. Leo1008

      I think the important question to raise about your observation is this: what constitutes "extreme progressive ideas" these days? And do those ideas hold any sort of wide appeal?

      Ruy Teixeira recently wrote an alarming substack column about this problem. And he mentions:

      "Echelon Insights tested a series of basic values statements on sociocultural issues including: Racism is built into our society, including into its policies and institutions vs. Racism comes from individuals who hold racist views, not from our society and institutions. The result: Hispanics endorsed the second, allegedly “conservative” statement that racism comes from individuals by 58-36, as did working-class (noncollege) voters by 57-33."

      "Overwhelming majorities thought elementary school children should learn about slavery, the environment, critical thinking, patriotism, the contributions of women and persons of color, and the contributions of the Founding Fathers. But just 29 percent thought elementary school children should learn about gender identity. The figure was even lower among working-class respondents."

      Or in regards to this quote: "Our goal as a society should be to treat all people the same without regard to the color of their skin,” Teixeira writes:

      "This Martin Luther King-style statement elicited sky-high (92 percent) agreement from the public, despite the assaults on this idea from Critical Race Theory (CRT) and the likes of Ibram X. Kendi and large sectors of the Democratic left. In a fascinating related finding, the researchers found that most people who claim to have heard about CRT believe CRT includes this colorblind perspective, rather than directly contradicting it. Perhaps they just can’t believe any theory that has anything to do with race would reject this fundamental principle."

      And I haven't even mentioned "defund the police" or "reparations."

      I feel pretty confident asserting that "extreme progressive ideas" are highly unpopular outside of a very few enclaves (universities, news rooms, progressive blogs) where they have firmly taken root. And, in those enclaves, I believe such ideas are largely shielded from scrutiny by a deafening echo chamber effect.

      So you may indeed be right about "moderately Liberal" parents running into conflict with the "extreme progressive ideas" of their children. But it's not just parents and children. As best as I can tell, it's the majority of the country turning more and more against the Left as that majority comes into increasing contact with "progressive" ideas that it rejects.

      1. Crissa

        You do understand than gender-based dress codes at school are teaching about gender, right?

        And you can't even keep straight what is a Progressive idea and what's a far left idea.

  13. cld

    I figured out what the deal is with social conservatives, conspiracy theorists and religious maniacs,

    It's pareidolatry.

  14. skeptonomist

    There is evidence of significant changes on some issues. Polling on Black Lives Matter shows a lot of movement on that issue, with shift in favor as the videos of police brutality were featured in the media, but then a big shift against as the protests started in June 2020:

    https://civiqs.com/results/black_lives_matter?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

    But now opinions are back almost to where they were in 2018, the main difference being a few more people off the fence.

    1. ScentOfViolets

      !!BINGO!! For that matter, how does anybody -- any given person, that is -- define 'conservative' or 'conservatism'. These days, I tend to go heavily with the notion that it's yet another exaple of meaningless if not outright obfusticating terminology. In this it is not at all unlike the concept of 'free will', a useless attempt to reify something that doesn't actually exist.

      No, don't tell me that you're a moderate/liberal/conservative; tell me what policies you support, and the programs and legislation you need or at least willing to live with in order to realize them.

  15. nikos redux

    Their views haven't actually changed; the Overton window of acceptable social discourse has shifted.

    Americans are quite liberal on social issues but when you go far enough to reach intersectional identity politics and start calling into question what a 'Woman' is and telling suburban whites they are racist simply by virtue of being born, well.. they might start to feel the "conservative" label better fits them.

    1. Crissa

      ...Or lying about other people and demonizing them and ignoring racist or bigoted outcomes of policies...

      Why is it you do that?

      If you don't want to be called a racist, just don't do the racist thing. No one is making you feel racist by pointing out racism.

    2. ScentOfViolets

      Tell me, are you deliberately trying to insult my intelligence, or do you not realize that telling people obvious and pathetic lies to their face is not something normal people do? At least, not if they're trying to be the least bit polite or honest.

  16. Justin

    When the history of this time is written, shifts like this will be blamed liberal tolerance for the crazy trannies and the black criminals. Oops.

      1. Justin

        The things we all sacrifice so you can be you. I’d expect more gratitude and humility but that’s not something you have within you.

    1. Goosedat

      In the near future the butch, obese, and sufferers of ED will not be around to indict persons for rejecting their toxic male rage.

    1. cld

      !

      That is excellent, and it would be easy test for as well.

      Do the people who are throwing fits on airplanes all have brain damage from covid infection? The January 6 rioters?

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