Core PCE is The Fed's Preferred Measure of Inflation™, so let's focus on that this month. On a month-over-month basis, it came in at 1.4% in November:
PCE is a volatile series, so it's best not to get too excited about monthly ups and downs, including this one. Nonetheless, core PCE has been on a steep trend downward ever since it peaked in 2021 and there's no reason to think that's going to change. It remains a little elevated thanks to inflation in services, which is mostly caused by catch-up wage growth, but that's natural and won't last much longer. The Fed needs to stop obsessing over this.
On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline PCE clocked in at 2.4% and core PCE came in at 2.8%.
I mean, there's a pretty good reason to expect it to change, which is that Trump says he's going to dramatically raise tariffs in two months. The Fed was reticent to say it but it's almost certainly why they increased their estimates of end-2025 interest rates.
It was always Trump's inflation. It started in 2020. It started to go down 6 months (or less) into Biden's term. The Biden team made a HUGE mistake in not loudly blaming the inflation and all other economic problems on Trump. Will the Dems never learn anything?
If I had been running communications for Biden in 2021 I'd have started off by repeating every day that the administration inherited a gigantic mess, the country was in terrible shape, the economy was on the brink of disaster, but luckily we have the A-team on it and we are working hard to undo the damage done by Trump and the Republicans.
And moving forward I'd loudly trumpet any positive news as due to the great Joe Biden and anything negative as the fault of Trump and the Republicans. They should have called it "Trumpflation" from day 1.
But no, Democrats bring a wet sock to a gun fight.
“…the administration inherited a gigantic mess, the country was in terrible shape, the economy was on the brink of disaster, but luckily we have the A-team on it and we are working hard to undo the damage done by Trump and the Republicans.”
Everything except for “trump and the” has been true my entire lifetime. Every incoming Democratic presidency is handed a mess by the outgoing Republican. Democrats apparently exist solely to be the clean up crew, and get tossed out as soon as everything is cleaned up. I can only assume - since elected Dems never point this situation out to the voters - that Dems like being the permanent janitors for our nation.
+1
Afuckingmen to both y'all 1
+1
...and there's no reason to think that's going to change...
Other than this thing called tariffs.
It's funny, Trump drove up inflation, Biden fixed it. Trump will do it again and 4 years from now we'll need a Democrat to fix things.