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Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 13 Update

Published on 22 Comments on Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 13 Update

Here’s the officially reported coronavirus death toll through July 13. The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

22 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 13 Update”

  2. golack

    Some of this is still probably due to catch up from the 4th, but still...not looking good.

    Three states back in the red:
    FL and AR have case loads over 25 new cases/day/100K (26.0 and 32.4--leaving MO in the dust)
    TN has infection rate at 1.45--current highest, though caseload at 6.3 (that will change)
    And internal travel restrictions in US kicking back in (for un-vaccinated).
    Four states with cases >20; 9 with cases >10.
    All but three have growing caseloads (infection rate >1).

    SD in the green--only one left.....hmmm.....

      1. golack

        True--their reporting makes it hard to follow. However, the northern part of that state is behaving like MS, AL and GA--low vaccination levels and cases going up. The elderly were vaccinated, as was Orlando (DisneyWorld?).

        1. Jerry O'Brien

          Florida only updates once a week now. What I'm getting for the latest week is about 110 new cases per 100,000, or about 16 per day.

          2. golack

            CovidActNow has FL posting ca. 39K cases over the past 7 days, with yesterday at ca. 15K and the couple days beforehand at 0. A population of 21,500K makes that ca. 26 new cases/day/100K on average.
            But numbers do vary somewhat by source.

      2. rational thought

        If they only update once a week but are consistent on the day, should not distort a 7 day average number like Kevin's much at all.

          1. rational thought

            Yes of course and why we should not come to any certain conclusions until maybe a week or so from now.

            But if fl reports consistently every week then the 7 day avg should be exactly the same as if they reported every day for that day ( and then be frozen for next 6 days.

            If they are inconsistent, it will throw off 7 day averages a lot.

            I do notice some counties here in ca are not officially reporting once a week but are real spotty in reporting.

  3. D_Ohrk_E1

    With Delta being 2-3x more infectious than the original strain, protocols and assumptions previously evaluated for efficacy under the original strain may need to be reevaluated. Camps are becoming breakout vectors of infections, as you may have noticed.

    This is what worries me about the Delta wave currently hitting the US. If all we do is reapply the old protocols that were deemed the most effective, the Delta wave may catch us by surprise and end up being the worst wave to date.

    1. golack

      I wouldn't go that far. There are a lot of people vaccinated, and that seems to be slowing the spread since vaccines are still effective against the Delta variant. Granted, vaccines are not as good as they are against the original strain, but they are good enough.
      That said, for those not vaccinated, this could get nasty.

    3. rational thought

      2 to 3 times more infectious? Where did you see that? This is a bigger difference that I have seen which is more like 50% more. Or perhaps even a bit more than that. 2 times seems like an exaggeration somewhat but maybe in the realm of extreme possibilites. But three? If that is true, I doubt any sort of restrictions are enough and might as well give up.

      1. rational thought

        I might add that the increase in transmissibility might vary depending on other variables..

        For example, maybe the delta variant is 2.5 times as infectious as the original in hot summer conditions but only 1.5 times as much ( or even less) in cold winter. Possible if the delta variant evolved something that really only gets around whatever factors make the original spread less in the summer. The variant did evolve in India after all and seems to be spreading now in Europe an usa a lot in summer. But will not know until winter hits or maybe we can tell by seeing if the delta variant is also going as crazy relatively in south America?

        Or maybe delta spreads 2.5 times as fast as original indoors but the same outdoors?

        I think the scientists should be trying to figure this out because it could change the estimate as to what are the cost/ benefit ratios of restrictions. Maybe social distancing was more important for original and masking really a marginal help if at all. But reverse for delta?

        Not saying this is the case but it could be and will help policy makers to know.

  4. Jerry O'Brien

    There's an infection spike being shown in the past week's confirmed case counts, and in covid hospital admissions, from all over the United States. It may be partly a Fourth of July spike, but the rise started at the end of June.

    1. rational thought

      Seems to me fairly inarguable that we have a real infection increase and no reporting distortions could account for it.

      With deaths, not as sure. For one, some sites like worldometers do not show as near a big spike in 7 day avg deaths as kevin does. And again does anyone know why there is a discrepancy now?

      If I look at worldometers, and adjust for holiday distortions, just possible we flattened out a while ago ( although appeared to still be dropping) and now are still flat on deaths or just I little bump. Kevin numbers show a % age increase too high to be all attributable to the holiday.

        1. rational thought

          My gut feeling is that it has already started but just slightly. Not sure though.

          And if our experience is like the uk, the death increase, when it comes, will be much less dramatic than any infection increase

          And see no reason why we should be worse in that regard than the uk, and maybe a bit better ( as our two shot approach seems best with delta vs. UK get one shot in all first plan).

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