Skip to content

7 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: July 4 Update”

  2. golack

    Numbers will be bouncing around a bit.
    The UK announces it is going to lift Covid restrictions on July 19th. At least they said that will lead to an uptick in cases.
    We seem to be going through both, and uptick in cases after places have opened up plus a few outbreaks, see MO, and the spread of variants. Expect another bump after this holiday, and there are still places ripe for outbreaks.
    Please encourage, as best you can, people to get vaccinated.

    1. Jerry O'Brien

      The U.K.: What is going on? From these Johns Hopkins case counts, they seem to be getting back into the big pandemic range.

  3. rational thought

    The uk is hard to figure out. The case rate seems to be getting pretty serious which sure seems like it has to be mostly because the delta variant is significantly more transmissible and seems to prove that true. Scary if it is possible that the usa might go down that path with delta.

    But, at the same time, their death rate while increasing, is not going up by near as much as you would have expected, even factoring in a lag time from cases.

    So what explains that and is that hopeful?

    Could indicate that, contrary to prior statements, the delta variant while more transmissible, is less not more deadly. Which is the way many viruses normally evolve. Or maybe having one vaccination ( as uk focused on that) and not two, is not so effective for infections but is effective re preventing death. Or maybe it is just because more of those unvaccinated are young ( offset some because more who have natural immunity are also young ) so new infections are mostly in young with lower chance of death due to just age.

    But even considering all of those, the death rate in UK staying lower than it would seem possible.

      1. rational thought

        Comparing usa to the uk, I could see one helpful difference and one harmful potentially in the fact that, as far as I know, the uk vaccinations were more in order of age than the usa. So in the uk, a larger share of remaining unvaccinated were young than in the usa where unvaccinated are more spread out in age.

        So, if or when we get hit as much with delta as the uk, I would expect maybe not quite as much of a spread and new cases as the uk ( because young people hang out together mostly socializing so that concentrates the unvaccinated). But, of those that do get covid, the usa should have a higher death rate as a higher share will be older.

Comments are closed.