Skip to content

10 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 4 Update”

  1. George Salt

    The shape of the US curve really worries me. In contrast to Great Britain, which shows an exponential decay, our curve is leveling off. On one hand, we are down dramatically from the peak reached in early January; on the other hand, we are back to where we were last spring/early summer.

    According to the NYT Coronavirus Tracker, the 14-day change in new cases has dropped 26% to 48,003 but the 14-day change in deaths has dropped only 2% to 720.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

    720 deaths a day = 262,800 deaths in a year.

    I think we are prematurely declaring victory.

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      Ross Douthat, Smart Conservative just guffawed at Fauci saying we are in the bottom of the sixth inning.

      & Ross is one of the smart ones.

      Now, think of Paul Gosar, Lauren Bobert, & the rest of the Insurrection freakshow. What are they doing in response to Dr. Fauci's tempered response?

    2. Mitch Guthman

      The counties where the virus has significant allies (India, Brazil,USA) are always going to be a problem. If there’s a resurgence in the fall, I think we need to consider ways to isolate places where the virus is picking up steam and might get out of control. Obviously, borders will need to be tightly closed with India and Brazil (and countries with borders on India and Brazil will need some aid since they will be acting not only on their own behalf but on ours, too).

      Domestically, if there’s any threat of things getting out of con, we will need to impose similar quarantine requirements on recalcitrant states with governments that are hostile towards necessary public health measures.

    3. cld

      I have been having the same impression, the moment a variant with enhanced virulence turns up it could blow us right back to January in a month and it will take us another year to get past it, by which time still another variant could emerge.

      And this might keep up until all the anti-masking anti-vaxxers are dead, or at least until they realize this is the true goal of our evil conspiracy.

    4. golack

      Vaccinations plus lock down.
      Here??? Even the most simple ask to help minimize the spread of the virus becomes an existential threat to some people.

  2. golack

    PA and RI now out of the red zone (25 new cases/day/100K)--so Mid-Atlantic and New England are clearing up.
    LA got out of the pool (now greater than 10 new cases/day/100K).

    CA the only mid to large state to stay reliably below 10 since mid March.
    Vaccinations:
    Ten states >50% first dose. Six below 35%.
    The cut off values are somewhat arbitrary. For 70% of adult population to be vaccinated, ca. 56% of total population would need to be vaccinated. State numbers mask regional variability.
    Metro areas (CovidActNow): Six below 20% (lowest at 4.9%); Six above 60% (highest at 69%).
    County wise: 60 above 60% (highest at 99.3%); 41 at or below 15%, (100+ below 20%, lowest at 0.9%).

  3. Midgard

    Salt, you do realize what lags are, don't you?? Deaths will slide down a bit in a few days.

    Every state in the union will be 100% open by July 1st. It's gonna take a hell of a rebound by fall for this too matter, and it won't. It's why Social Nationalism needs to replace progressive nonsense as "the left".

Comments are closed.