Here's a quick update on the COVID death rate in the US and other peer countries:
In every country the death rate has fallen below 0.5 per million, and in a few it's under 0.1 per million. In the US we're at our lowest death rate since the start of the pandemic, but this still means nearly 200 fatalities per day. There's work yet to be done.
At this stage, what would that be?
Tell the holdouts they’ll get 6G wireless? Seriously, it’s a lifestyle choice at this point.
Get that death rate down to 100/day, is what remains to be done. Then we can all take off our masks in safety. Unlike today, where the maskless are effectively gambling.
But hey, I get it: they're heedless of the risks to themselves, their families, and their neighbors.
Fine. And how would we get the death rate down below 100 a day?
Alas, much of the drop comes from the fact that we've mostly stopped tracking. Wilful blindness has won by exhaustion.
Just checking here, but do you think the CDC is willfully undercounting COVID deaths? And if so, I wonder how you think that statement is different from all the right wing nutbars who thought the CDC was purposefully overcounting COVID deaths in 2020?
We’ve mostly stopped tracking cases, not deaths. But in states like Florida I suspect that if there is something other than Covid that can be reported it will. I have no confidence in DeSantis being honest in this matter.
And in case you haven’t noticed tracking Covid is currently much more difficult than it once was for us ordinary folk.
Alas, much of the drop comes from the fact that we've mostly stopped tracking.
That seems doubtful. At one point we were losing nearly 4,000 persons every day to the virus. Stating "much" of the drop is due to failure to track these deaths implies you think we haven't seen much improvement, and we're still suffering, what, two, three thousand daily covid deaths? Is that what you really think?
I realize that the United States, like most countries these days, isn't tracking new infections very assiduously, but deaths are a different matter. The relevant authorities do actually record cause of death, and, while nothing's perfect, it doesn't seem likely they're missing giant numbers of Covid deaths (for one thing, Covid antibodies are obviously far more prevalent in the population than a 2-3 years ago, so that's one factor).
Considering almost no one is masking now and the only people getting boosters are us olds I’d say that’s pretty good. Although I’d agree that some states are underreporting.
I’d like to see some reporting on how this strain of the virus is regarding long Covid and long term health effects. But I have no confidence that the MSM will continue to follow the story.
I was a big proponent of masking in 2020 and well into 2021. I masked sometimes up to early this year. But at this point I feel like anyone who is still regularly masking and who is not in a very high risk group needs to get over it already.
I’d like to see some more information on long term health effects before abandoning masks altogether. I do wear one far less than I used to but I always do at the airport or in a crowded space. Just before Covid hit I had a case of regular flu that kicked my butt. I have no desire to get something potentially more serious.
The reaction to masks is so strange. People feel so bothered, perhaps threatened?
You dont see this same kind of patronizing approach to people who wear seat belts or dont drink and drive....
Its very strange.... the need to look down on others.
But at this point I feel like anyone who is still regularly masking and who is not in a very high risk group needs to get over it already.
I don't mask at all any more. But I feel people should wear masks if they want, without judgment from others. Your wearing a mask doesn't harm me.
+1
Meanwhile the NIH released a big study confirming that 10% of people who get even mild Covid are developing Long Covid.
Hard to square that with everyone's anecdotal experience that 10% of their acquaintances haven't dropped out of society. Could someone please figure out WTF is going on with that? The endless stream of terrifying Long Covid studies are hard to wrap my head around.
Only a minority of people with lasting Covid symptoms are incapacitated. Those who are still ambulatory or feel their symptoms are gone include some with scary things like heart or brain injuries that are only diagnosable via, say, MRIs or blood tests for things specific to such injuries -- they may feel just fine, and those hidden injuries may completely heal over the years. Or not. Considering that it took decades for post-polio syndrome to be diagnosed and recognized, we may not be near the end of the story here with long Covid.
But I want answers to the very new disease and its sequelae N O W.
See: Census Pulse Survey on Long COVID.
In the most recent period, 1.4% (1.2-1.5 @95%CI) of all US adults were currently experiencing significant limitations to activities, from Long COVID. It's gone down over the study period (since Sept 26, 2022), but it's been very slow and very tiny.
Thanks, that's very helpful! 1.4% definitely tracks closer to my anecdotal experience... I have a couple friends who have been completely disabled by Long Covid since early in the pandemic.
But still, a 1.4% chance of a probably life long disability every time you catch Covid (and allegedly your Long Covid odds get worse with each reinfection) is pretty bad statistically speaking. I know people who have already had Covid and rolled the dice five times!
Seems like this will have to start impacting society at some point soon.
COVID killed both of my parents and it nearly killed me, so it's no joke.
But at this point, I think that it has killed just about everyone who was susceptible to dying from it.
It's going the way of Chicken Pox.
I'm so sorry for your loss and your suffering, I cannot imagine. Especially in the time of pandemic.
But I don't think it will be like Chicken Pox, but more like Flu. Yearly flu kills thousands in the US but with vaccines, antivirals, and know-how, we keep it out of the news so to speak. Because we accept it, or are apathetic about it, or ill informed. And like flu, a decade from now, so too will COVID be.
In terms of peak rate, it is almost like flu. Flu is more concentrated in a 3 month period, or so, and a "bad" season would be up to around 70K+. COVID is like that rate, but year round.
So, I kind of understand that we've already hit the psychological tipping point of accepting it like the flu.
Chicken Pox mutates very slowly, on the order of hundreds of years.
SARS-CoV-2 mutates with every transmission.
According to cdc, most recent non provisional weekly death count is 849. That’s getting pretty close to 100 per day.
Yeah, I had a similar comment (with link) that got eaten, but, long story short, my go-to source (Worldometer) claims the US 7 day moving average dropped below 200 by the end of April, and is currently at 87.