The BLS reported CPI inflation of 3.7% in January. Core CPI was higher at 4.8%:
Inflation has been ticking upward for the past three months, though it remains relatively restrained.
On a year-over-year basis, CPI clocked in at 3.1% and core CPI came in at 3.9%.
I see the hand wringing on the stock market has begun. Probably a good time to buy on the temporary down swing.
Looks like the biggest contributors were food (esp. going out to eat), shelter, and transportation services. Everything else seems pretty subdued. And some energy prices, like for fuel oil, have come *way* down. Thank the unusually warm winter in the NE for that one, I guess.
gas at my local costco was $2.50 last week
The NYT charting
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/business/cpi-inflation-january.html
Politically, Biden would likely benefit from a Fed rate cut. Near 4% core inflation probably does not support a rate cut....
Kevin, what level of Core CPI would qualify as not "relatively restrained"?
If we go back above 5%, would that count? If not that, what would?
One can rather predict that as like the Friedman Unit type application of Transitory one should not expect to have any embarrassingly precise number to nail down.
Are we “post-transitory” now?
Looking at the chart, Kevin’s favorite trendline du jour notwithstanding, it looks rather like two, distinct timeframes.
The Trendlines are rather evidently Wishcasting....
Otherwise the secondary feedthrough effects that were predicted are rather evidently in evidence - and with the persistance despite Fed action (which if one recalls Drum would have had never happen, on his 2021 forward forecasts of a transitory inflation with rapid-on-its-own cooling)
The prudence of Central Banks (European Central Bank as well as Fed, the ECB should be clearly understood even by the most rabid partisan as not pulling for Trump) based on the econometric lessons as like 70s and reaccelerations on 2ndary feed through has proven rather well justified contra a certain Left profile
(evocation of 70s for clarity is not to say that a 70s repeat is inevitable, rather that Central Banks prudence was and is needed to avoid replication of the same policy errors that led in the end to the stereotypical 70s malaise).
At same time the same CB parties forecasting a soft landing clearly have been rather better aligned to actual developments than the Woe & Gloom fraction of the Left (this to acknolweldge the sang-froid of the Biden econonomic team who did not engage in such).
The inflation episode was clearly a transitory event.
Given the continuing decline and the current normal level of inflation, its safe to say that the elevated inflation period of 2021-2022 was transitory and is now well behind us.
Hard to eyeball a trend with 2 sets of very noisy, monthly data, but if you look at 3, 6 or 12 month inflation figures, the trend becomes very apparent and fairly consistent.
We feeling the effects of the Houthis closing the Red Sea or still too soon?