LZ Granderson writes about housing in the LA Times today:
There is another migrant crisis brewing. Unlike the one at the southern border, this one will be all over the country.
A recent Harvard study found that half of the country’s renters are spending a third or more of their income on housing.... Combine the rent line item with the soaring cost of child care, and don’t forget groceries, and … well, you can understand why evictions have spiked and homelessness has reached a record high.
The "Harvard study" in question always predicts an eviction crisis now that the COVID-era moratoriums have been lifted. But it keeps not happening. There are no reliable nationwide figures for evictions, but here are the results from the past couple of years of the Census Bureau's Pulse survey:
There's no spike and the trend is downward. Unfortunately, the most recent Pulse survey is from October, but there's no special reason to think the past three months have suddenly spiked upward. On the contrary, as even the Harvard study says, the rental market has cooled recently. Combine that with rising incomes, especially among the poor, and there's nothing to see.
It's time to ditch the eviction hysteria. Rents did increase during the pandemic, and the rental market is a tough one for low-income workers. But they aren't being evicted at unusual rates.
POSTSCRIPT: And while we're at it, can we also put a stake in the lazy canard that child care costs have skyrocketed? It's not hard to get the real numbers:
Since just before the pandemic, child care costs have risen less than overall inflation and considerably less than wages, especially wages among the lowest paid workers.
This doom mongering stuff is so tiresome. It gets repeated over and over and over based on nothing but vibes. Or something. It sure isn't based on facts.
hopefully engoron will get someone evicted from trump tower this week
I think the doommongering over daycare is based on the fact that it's eye-wateringly expensive in large cities on the coasts: NYC, LA, Boston, etc. That's driven largely by demand -- younger families in those places have to have both parents working to survive and have often moved there from somewhere else and don't have a network of grandparents, aunts, uncles, and other family members nearby who can help out with childcare. So there's outsized demand and correspondingly higher prices. Also, those states have pretty tight regulations for childcare businesses which are expensive to comply with, and add to the cost. It's probably not such a huge expense somewhere like Tulsa, OK or Jackson, MS.
or you could turn a profit by sending your kids off to the child labor camps in texas and florida
Childcare is expensive and has been for decades. An issue which has always plagued middle and lower income families.
That said, there isn't suddenly a huge new issue from a cost perspective. It's just the same one that's always been there.
I wonder if the survey is missing people who got evicted...
And starting the chart in 2022, too...
Isn’t about a third of your income on housing what is recommended? Why is that treated as if it is a huge amount?
it is the recommended absolute maximum. spending a third of your income on rent is like having a BMI of 24.9- manageable, but you have zero room for error.
What? The median BMI in the US is 28.8. The only places where the median is under 25 tend to be Japan and countries where malnutrition is a problem.
I'd like to see reliable science behind all these BMI benchmarks.
It's like drinking 10 glasses of water every day.
They're averages, and only really apply to population.
It's recommended that you spend no MORE than that amount on housing AND its related costs (i.e., utilities).
The number of renter households who are housing burdened (i.e., spend more than 30% of income on housing) broached 50% for the first time in history and is only continuing to rise.
But sure, according to Kevin, everybody's doing just fuckin' fine.
No, he said that surprisingly, evictions have not spiked since the end of the pandemic.
I know Kevin doesn't think social media has really affected mental health, but the online left has seem to have totally converted to the Religion of Doom, dedicated to putting TFG back in office.
This doom mongering stuff is so tiresome.
We have some real problems in this country. The most immediate is Donald Trump and threat his possible election would pose to our society and the world at large. The media is extremely reluctant to tell the public about that threat. But every other problem gets blown out of proportion to such a degree it's beyond parody.
Joe Biden said Mexico when he meant Egypt. OMG! Days and days of wall-to-wall coverage. Donald Trump invited Putin to invade Europe. Well, not such a big deal.
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself!"
If FDR had today's press, his presidency would have effectively ended after his first day. "The president is not only out of touch. He's certifiably nuts. 25% of the workforce is unemployed and he tells them they have nothing to fear."
This country we have today would never have survived the Depression and would never have beaten the Nazis in WWII. We can't handle what is objectively the best economy we have had in decades. It's remarkable.
Well, to be fair, eviction is always a crisis for the people getting evicted.
The article claims that evictions have spiked since 2019.
Kevins claims that this cannot be true because evictions are slightly down since 2022.
Misleading? Dishonest? Misinformation? Hard to say exactly, but Kevin isnt addressing the actual claim.
As for childcare costs, I believe the common argument is that these costs are insanely high. This is not a new development. Kevins chart appears to show that childcare costs are not skyrocketing post-pandemic, but it doesnt address whether or not these costs are still extremely high.
A lot of these studies are designed specifically to come to certain conclusions (or are spun to certain conclusions) which support the policy sympathies of whoever conducted them.
Which is why you should be careful about studies that advocates cite in their arguments...