I've slowly moved away from showing the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 deaths as it's become clearer that such comparisons are useless since different regions experience waves at slightly different times. If you cherry pick the right week, it looks like the US is doing great and Florida is a world leader in fighting COVID-19. Pick another week and they look like pandemic central.
Now that COVID-19 has been around for nearly two years, the better thing to look at is cumulative cases and deaths. This does a superior job of showing how different countries have responded to COVID-19 over time. Here it is for the US and Europe:
The United States continues to be worse than nearly all our peer countries in Europe. The two big exceptions are Hungary and Czechia, which act as cautionary tales. Hungary began a huge upsurge last November and eventually acted on it. But it was too late. Lackadaisical policies allowed infections to get out of control, and new mask mandates were both late and not enough.
Czechia is even more heartbreaking. They had great policies and were the envy of Europe for over a year. But then they declared victory too early, and with an election coming up last October the government didn't want to reinstate unpopular countermeasures. The result was catastrophic.
The United States, needless to say, has never adopted suitable policies and has paid a bigger and bigger price for that. We haven't always been quite the worst performer among our peers, but we are now with the exception of the two outliers.
But we just don't care enough.
Adjust for obesity. Then you won't be able to draw the conclusion about the policies, sorry.
If you're going to make an extraordinary claim like that, you really should back it up with extraordinary evidence. I don't believe, for instance, that the obesity rate in Canada is significantly lower than it is in the US. On the other hand, I am aware that the US has a lower average age than any of the other countries listed, which suggests that the US should have a lower fatality rate.
CDC page on this says, "In 2007–2009, the prevalence of obesity in Canada was 24.1%, over 10 percentage points lower than in the United States (34.4%). Among men, the prevalence of obesity was over 8 percentage points lower in Canada than in the United States (24.3% compared with 32.6%) and among women, more than 12 percentage points lower (23.9% compared with 36.2%)."
Not saying this explains the difference in covid deaths in a major way. But it would certainly be a factor.
Sheez, I didn't think we had actually done worse than Spain and Italy. That's sobering.
It's pretty clear looking at the graph that the severity of Covid is inversely proportional to the strength of a country's democratic institutions and propensity for political and/or economic corruption.
Had a great 3 week trip to Italy last month. Airlines, railroads, museums and restaurants all checked our vacination cards and required masking. The Covid rate was about 20% of what it was back home in Washington state, which itself was lower than most of the red states.
Errr, masking is irrelevant and nope, Spain is doing no better.
Well I guess all those countries in Asia that have been masking for decades must have been wasting their time then.
Apart from whether masking is effective (and it does reduce the spital aerosols the virus likes to travel on), it is a surrogate for whether a country takes Covid seriously or views it as some sort of phony conspiracy.
I recently checked the covid map for my southeastern state. I live in a large city/county which is blue but we are surrounded by which are much less populates. red counties. My county is in the next to lowest infection/death category. All the surrounding counties are in higher categories. The county which is less than 5 miles from me is two categories higher. The rates closely track with vaccination rates. Being a Republican is hazardous to your health — and the health of others.
That was some wretched timing by Czechia. They loosened up and got slammed just before vaccines started being available - if they'd held on longer, they might have avoided a lot of deaths.
It's wild to think that about 1 in 450 people in the US has died from Covid-19. Apparently the consensus is still that the Peruvians had the worst death rate of all countries, with 6187 deaths per million (meaning 1 in 161 people in Peru has died from Covid-19).
Incidentally, China seems to be digging in its heels with its heavy-handed response to Covid-19 cases, even if Delta (and maybe now Omicron) means it's no longer really possible. Just saw some report that the Chinese government is claiming their anti-Covid measures avoided 3 million deaths (which is probably true, even if they're no longer tenable).
Spadesofgrey assured us that 1 in 450 people in the US was not that bad, kind of like the black night getting a flesh wound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmInkxbvlCs
My daughter-in-law is Czech and has a lot of family and friends living there so she keeps up with what is going on and regularly reads Czech media. According to her the anti-vax propaganda has really taken hold. Also Russia has a lot of influence there and is trying to turn them away from the West so they have been inundated with fake news and conspiracies just as we have here.
Personally I'm not all that interested in comparing overall death rates between countries. I don't believe that really tells you all that much.
At this point literally all I care about is how bad things are right now and when I can expect things to get more back to normal. My feeling is, if you and the people you are close to are vaccinated, then you can basically stop worrying. Travel around the country. Visit friends and family. Go to weddings. Go to concerts, sporting events, movies, or whatever you want. Wear a mask when asked to, keep up with your boosters, but otherwise, just go about living your life.
But do I have to go to the office?
Actually getting a booster shot is the key to avoiding spreading covid and stopping the pandemic. The evidence coming in shows that booster shots drastically reduce the chance of getting infected.
https://www.science.org/content/article/israel-s-covid-19-boosters-are-preventing-infections-new-studies-suggest
Pingback: Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths per Million in the US and Europe | Later On
There but for a blockquote would have been the desired formatting…
Whether or not the claim that "punditry lived by the 7-day trailing average for over a year before now" very much depends on which pundit, or pundits, you are referring to. In the early days of covid, Kevin started with a six-day rolling average, but cumulative death rates have been the subject of comments, by Kevin and others, ever since we got deep enough into the pandemic for them to be meaningful.
Kevin’s charts for the year (longer?) prior to leaving Mother Jones were almost exclusively seven-day trailing averages of the per days. Web search for “ Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries site:motherjones.com”
Trailing average tells you where you are right now (recent past), and has nothing to say about cumulative totals. Don't see what point you're making.
Hungary, Czechia and most of those countries are significantly older than the US. Adjust for age and this chart probably looks very different.
Without adjusting for age, this chart isn't telling us much.
Yup, every chart you need a age adjustment. Yes, Drum could do that. Obesity, not so much.
Italy has a higher median age than either the Czech Republic or Hungary but they are well below them in infection and death rates.
Michigan's thumb is bleeding again...
(covidactnow color scheme, red is bad)
Looks like the increase in cases has made it to the cities in the Northeast and upper MidWest. Thanksgiving has interrupted reporting, so that will take some time so sort out. It's possible that things are starting to level off--and we'll see how well we did over the past holiday in a couple of weeks.
Ok, MO has numbers going back up now, and ok as in ok, not OK.
PA is reporting 81.5% vaccinated (1 dose) for the state, yet the highest level reported by the counties is 77%. I'm wondering if the state statistic is for eligible population and not total population. Other states have been updating their vaccine numbers too.
Hospitalization is down 55% yry. Nuff said while you blather on about "cases".
Covid-19 has a lot of friends in Michigan. From a Republican point of view, there's no point in ending the pandemic until the Democrats are driven from office. And, even then, it will be difficult to end the pandemic because conservatives are so committed to sabotaging the efforts of Democrats to end it.
I wonder what George Wallace Democrat Bart Stupak, denizen of C Street House & protector of unborn life, thinks of his pro-life GQP fellows getting people killed from COVID for partisan benefit.
Whoop. Ol' Boy don't care. He's too busy cranking it to pictures or Amy Coney Barrett.
The U.S. Is doing better when you don't include African Americans. Their obesity is the driving factor. Obeisity is everything.
United States shows about 2,300 deaths/million, but there is variance among the states.
California has a little under 1,900 deaths/million, almost 20% less, which is good for a very large population that includes a red-state culture in the central valley. Much of the state continues to emphasize mask wearing and proof-of-vaccination. Also, there are virtually no politicians discouraging vaccination (either explicitly, or indirectly like DeSantis in Florida).
Something else:
California, population ~40 million, total deaths from COVID 74,648
Texas, population ~30 million, total deaths from COVID 74,228
Finally, it must be admitted that the death rate from COVID is low, ranging from 0.1% to 0.35% in the United States. And here's where the red/blue divide lies. Some places, mostly in the south, are willing to accept higher fatality rates. Simple as that. More important for them to keep the economy and schools running as before, than make adjustments for the unlucky. It's the culture.
If the COVID fatality rate was 0.01%, I don't think many people would care. If it was 1%, everybody would care. Turns out the COVID fatality rate was in the middle, effectively splitting the country in terms of how to react.
Red/Blue doesn't work. It is more like college vs noncollege. College educated Republicans care more about old people than noncollege Democrats. Here is the kicker, noncollege Democrats are more likely to care about old people then noncollege Republicans. But the reverse is true when comparing the party's college graduates. Really showing the naturopathy elites among that section of registered Democrat.
You really don't get it.
Finally, it must be admitted that the death rate from COVID is low, ranging from 0.1% to 0.35% in the United States.
That doesn't have to be admitted at all, because it's a meaningless statement. "Low" out of context tells us virtually nothing. The covid death rate certainly isn't "low" compared to common cold. Nor is it "low" compared to influenza. Compared to pancreatic cancer or ebola, yes, it's low. (Moreover, even an arguably modest death rate can kills loads of people if the absolute number of persons who become infected is sufficiently large, as it is the USA).
Regarding this observation:
"The United States continues to be worse than nearly all our peer countries in Europe."
Perhaps it's there in the blog post somewhere, or maybe there's a general understanding on this question that I'm unaware of, but what exactly does "peer" signify in this context?
Compared to most of our "peer" countries on that list, the USA is a vast and sprawling place. Many of those other countries listed (the UK, Denmark, etc.) could all comfortably fit together inside the state of CA (probably with plenty of room to spare).
And, with our system of federalism, there are countless governing bodies (from state legislatures, to governors, to mayors, to schoolboards) influencing how we react to Covid across that massive space that makes up the USA.
Another issue which surely must be a factor is the diversity (ethnic, racial, political, religious, you name it) of our population. A quick Google search reveals that the population of Denmark (another "peer" country doing much better than us on Kevin's chart) is 93.7% white. To what extent does it influence their response to Covid when they know that it is almost entirely their own "tribe," and not someone who looks or speaks differently from them, benefitting from anti-Covid measures?
Is it even possible to control for these and so many other variables when attempting to compare Covid responses among different countries? If not, what are we talking about when we reference our "peers"?
But the EU is larger than ourselves and the constituent states are, on the whole, larger and more prosperous than most of our red states where the pandemic is strongest and take the weakest or no public health measures. California and New York alone are larger in terms of population than all of the red states combined and (except for Republican pockets of pro-Covid resistance) are also doing better in terms of cases and deaths than all of the red states combined.
So, obviously, part of our problems is indeed our insane system of federalism in which the craziest people have an effective veto over intelligent policies of all kind. Perhaps then it would be more accurate to compare California and New York, for example, to our peers in Europe and Asia—and we would compare favorably (yesterday and today, not a single Covid death in NYC).
And we could compare the red states to their obvious peers in terms of governance and enlightenment in the developing world or authoritarian European countries like Hungary.
Exactly, comparing the USA as a whole to just about any other country raises so many potential issues that any such comparison needs to be qualified in a multitude of ways.
Comparing individual states (CA, NY, TX, FL) to their "peer" countries in Europe, rather than America as a whole, might help us understand better what's actually going on in our own "nation states" (Gov Newsom's term for CA).
I don’t think Florida has a peer country in Europe. Maybe Somalia but with more foreign aid from America but lots fewer guns and random killings. It’s in the first world because it’s technically part of the USA but otherwise it would be a bigger disaster than anyplace in the developing world.
And, with our system of federalism, there are countless governing bodies (from state legislatures, to governors, to mayors, to schoolboards) influencing how we react to Covid across that massive space that makes up the USA.
I quite a agree there's an argument to be made that America's federal system is a net negative for pandemic response. What other differences might there be that hurt (or help) the US?
Oh, that's right, you're not interested in exploring these issues. You just want to make some banal observations about how the US is unique (hint: every country is unique it it own way) and claim it's meaningless to inquire as to why the US has allowed so much death.
God, I'm so fucking tired of this shit.
"What other differences might there be that hurt (or help) the US?"
Great question, and more or less the point of my original post.
Too bad you didn't stop there ....
The US has a lower population density than almost any European country other than Russia, which should in principle result in lower case/death rates. As for the other factors you mention, Canada is even more vast and sprawling than the US, has a federal system with "countless governing bodies", and is, like the US, ethnically and racially diverse, with a significantly higher proportion of immigrants in the population than the US.
The US has THREE TIMES the cumulative death rate of Canada.
+1
At this point, I think you have to assume that we're not going to be able to control the pandemic. It's going to continue until it runs out of allies or potential hosts. The areas that have the virus more under control need to focus on returning life to pre-Covid normal by vaccine mandates and excluding voluntarily unvaccinated people from all non-essential activities (restaurants, theaters, stores, and air travel come immediately to mind).
In this country, we've focused all of our energy on trying to reach the unreachable and that's not worked at all. It's time to use our energy and resources to get life back to normal for the rest of us. I know that's harsh but there are parts of the country where Covid-19 is seemingly welcomed and that incompatible with the way that we want to live (normal and not being sick or dying to the extent possible).
Non vaccinated should be taxed and those funds be used to pay for their care
Otherwise I agree with you post Mitch
I can't conclude anything about policies from cumulative death counts. Are we supposed to think New York and New Jersey have had bad anti-covid policies, and that's why their cumulative death rates are higher than forty-four other states', or do we take into account that the pandemic hit them before anyone in this country was ready to fight it?
This is a very good point. It's definitely important to note the trend lines involved.
Here's info on NYC:
Hospitalizations — At least*
People hospitalized within 14 days of diagnosis 24 34 Decreasing
Confirmed Deaths — At least*
Deaths with a positive molecular test 4 7 Decreasing
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Updated: November 30
First number is the daily average (last 7 days). Second number is Daily average (last 28 days)
Your latter point is correct IMO.
We are looking through the lens of COVID and nothing else
What about the failure of our medical system as a whole? First and foremost, several of you commented that we can't trust the numbers from Florida or other states.
With a nationalized HC system that disappears. No interference from any governor. All patients treated the same. Our exceptionalism is well noted. We have freedoms. Freedom to get fat, have high blood pressure, diabetes, and other risk factors because we can. We expect to go to the doctors, get a pill and be cured of everything but our own epidemic of stupidity, which seems to be more contagious than Omicron.