The Republican primary is now officially a two-person race: Trump vs. Nikki Haley. But Trump is ahead by 15 points in the New Hampshire polls and by 30+ points in South Carolina and Nevada.
It's Trump vs. Biden in November, just like it's been all along. Assuming nobody drops dead, of course.
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About that dropping dead thing. Trump is way overdue for a fatal coronary. I pity the paramedics that have to do CPR him. That orange stain won't come off easy.
Very real possibility. It is totally a legit strategy to be "ready to deploy" should Trump be totally or substantially incapacitated in any way. Haley has every reason to stay in the game.
Which is why she will ultimately kiss up and be his VP. It's her most direct path to be first woman potus.
Trump is way overdue for a fatal coronary.
I can't imagine he's not monitored by a cardiology team. He doesn't look to be in very good health, true, (statins can only do so much when the patient is morbidly obese), but I'd be surprised if a heart attack is what saves the republic.
I am surprised he's not on semaglutide, though. Seems a no-brainer judging from afar, and moreover he's as vain as fuck.
The people who actually need heart attacks never have them.
I think this was the strategy of every primary candidate. Treat Trump with kid's gloves no matter what insults he throws at you, or what he does, in the hopes that he drops dead or is otherwise unable to be the nominee, so they can slide right into the spot and sweep all of his base.
Both the DeSantis and Haley campaigns have always been predicated on the eventuality of a heart attack/stroke/enough criminal convictions to make him politically toxic.
Sufficiently politically toxic, and not to the Cultists -- who revere him as something between George Washington and Jesus -- but to our friends the "moderate Republicans," who as yet do NOT find him sufficiently politically toxic.
And this raises the question, why not? What about him makes them think he's suitable as President? What about him is not disqualifying already? What are they really looking for, and what does that say about their putative "moderate"-ness?
I have yet to hear anyone purporting to be a "moderate Republican" give an answer to this question that is not a lot of incomprehensible mumbles and disconnected buzzwords and/or does not make them sound like a Cultist.
Any "moderate Republicans" out there? Genuinely curious.
They are all still hoping he will drop dead soon, so they will not have to do anything.
‘Profiles in Wussiness’
Isn’t that the book that was written by Ted Cruz?
What are you going to do? Vote for commie Joe?
Well, I certainly am! Then again, I'm a yella dog Dem.
Because "moderate" Republicans have always been about ignoring the shitty stuff because it doesn't affect them - they just want their tax cuts and deregulation. That's it.
So the simple fact that Trump is not a Democrat (let alone one that simply wants to go back to common sense tax rates and retain common sense regulation, i.e. supports Chevron) makes him suitable to them.
As long as the trains run on time, we don't care about rumors about "camps." (And besides, we're not
Jewishnonwhite immigrants.)Why not? It's certainly worked out well before!
A lot of those “moderate” Republicans promoted the shitty stuff for years before trump, without any intention of ever doing any of the “-shitty” stuff that they had promised to do. Part of Trump’s appeal is that he convinced the republicans who were conned by the “moderates” that he would actually do what the gop had long promised to do.
Those “moderates “ are the dog that had long pretended to chase a car and ended up being run over when it finally caught that car.
Casey DeSantis will be mad
they took away the right to control her own body after Dobbs. now they took away her right to be first lady
oh, the ignominity of it all.............
Back to the burger stand for Meatball Ron.
Now Disney can turn off their animatronic Trump and just let the whole fiasco fade into golden memories.
What will be looked at in amazement in retrospect is the fact that you don't have a brilliant person to realize winning the GOP nomination over Trump required a massive, scorched earth, negative campaign against him. You were going to have to rip that nomination away from him, probably on the convention floor itself. If you didn't want to go through with it you shouldn't have run and saved yourself for 2028 (another story entirely). Instead, DeSantis wasted $130 million running a half-hearted campaign against Trump and Haley will waste just as much doing the same. Dumb! They ruined themselves.
DeSantis clearly governed Florida and campaigned as the heir to Trump and given the juice he had in the party post Florida’s response to Covid it probably would have worked. Except Trump ran making the strategy moot.
Christie tried to run as the Trump destroyer and it didn’t work. Plus who ever takes on that task ensures they aren’t going to win the nomination even if they succeed and it would go to a mini Trump. So either way DeSantis wasn’t going to win. His best bet was to in 2028. But 4 years is a long time in politics so that was a long shot to.
... winning the GOP nomination over Trump required a massive, scorched earth, negative campaign against him.
No it didn't. There's not a shred of evidence negative campaigning works against Trump among Republicans, and a lot of evidence to the contrary (how'd Chris Christie do?). He's MAGA's God Emperor.
Given Trump's standing in the Republican party, there were two strategies available to anybody running against him:
1) Run against him.
2) Run against all the non-Trump candidates, and hope that Trump disappears for some reason.
For whatever reason every single non-Trump candidate (including Christie, tbh, who only really attacked Trump at the margins, and did it too little and too late) chose strategy (2). Which is astonishing, because game theory would suggest that at least SOMEBODY would choose strategy (1), because (1) is the only one that has a chance of defeating Trump (however small), and doesn't actually harm you if Trump dies/goes to jail/strokes out/etc.
I am sincerely baffled that nobody tried (1). It's high risk/high reward, but absent an alternate pathway to the whitehouse, I am astonished that nobody rolled the dice on it.
option 1 gets you blackballed in the GOP and harassed and possibly murdered by his nutjob followers.
That is the main issue. Trump has effectively a terror organization ready to go "when needed".
I am sincerely baffled that nobody tried (1)
Christie tried. Asa Hutchinson tried. LIz Cheney tried. Haley is trying now. It doesn't appear to work.
because (1) is the only one that has a chance of defeating Trump
That's a claim not backed up by the evidence. If my take sounds suspiciously like "it's almost impossible to defeat Trump for the nomination because too much of the base simply adores him" then I plead guilty. At minimum I don't think there's anyone in GOP circles who is sufficiently well-liked to successfully employ "attack Trump" as a strategy. I do think that, maybe, very early consolidation around an "anyone but Trump" alternative (he/she would have to be pretty conservative and MAGA-y) might have worked, especially if the critique is more oblique, ie, we really need to put out our best candidate because the country won't survive four more years of BIden woke Socialism, and unfortunately Donald's legal problems make him a risky bet blah blah blah.
IOW I don't deny that there was a cogent critique of Trump's candidacy that might have worked. I just don't think you can code it as an "attack." Which yes, probably violates the traditional rules of US politics. But Trump has already broken all of those.
I really, at deep down suspect that, if the GOP truly wanted an alternative to Trump, they needed to find someone who absolutely does not code as "establishment." Maybe someone like Laura Ingraham? Tucker? Roseanne Barr? Kelsey Grammer? I do believe a lot of MAGA folks are terrified of another Biden term, and, the one thing that might get them to consider an alternative to Trump was if they could be convinced he's likely to lose: you can do that without directly attacking Trump, ie, "He was a wonderful president, but unfortunately the liberal attacks and lamestream media have taken advantage of his legal problems yada yada."
But no, a conventional politician doing conventional style "attacks" wasn't going to get it done. Exhibiting any sincere disdain for Trump qua Trump hurts any Republican who tries it. By now that's abundantly clear.
Even Christie's attack were pretty tame relative to what was needed.
I didn't think their could ever be a worse candidate than Donald, but then the Republicans came up with DeSantis.
Just imagine how bad the slate is going to be in 2028.
Why do you think that death would end the campaign of Orange Jesus. They would probably stuff him like Lenin, and carry him around to all the rallies, with the MAGA morons waiting for him to resurrect.
I really wish I was a bear, so I could hibernate until after the election.
And the Supreme Court would observe in their 6-3 decision that there is nothing at all in the Constitution that requires someone be living to be President.
And the Supreme Court would observe in their 6-3 decision that there is nothing at all in the Constitution that requires someone be living to be President.
Well, joke all you like, but there really is nothing in the constitution stipulating the president cannot be a convicted and even imprisoned felon. Which is why I've long thought the criminal justice system offers pretty much zero prospect of saving our democracy's bacon, even in the unlikely chance we get a clean (ie, post appeal) conviction this year.
I really wish I was a bear, so I could hibernate until after the election.
NO!! You need to first vote for Joe before you retreat into your cave!
Daily I ‘ask’ or a fatal coronary for t—Rump. Apparently I need to be more focused…
Nope. I am hoping he wins the nomination and strokes out in Oct. A la Ariel Sharon. Alive but......... I don't think "vote for the comatose guy" is a good campaign, but many GOP voters would rather die than vote for a "D". Maybe this way they would not vote at all.
And Kari Lake is going to be his VP choice. Loyal and "looks hot on TV."
Zero political experience, but who needs that?
And Kari Lake is going to be his VP choice. Loyal and "looks hot on TV."
Maybe, though if they have any sense the campaign will poll extensively: no reason to put her on the ticket unless she helps them win Arizona, and I'm not sure she's sufficiently popular there. If they're going the "hot female" route, I suspect they'll go with Kristi Noem (sp?).
Trump's desparate for personal, legal reasons, and will do anything to win. So I think he may go unconventional, and perhaps choose a Democrat or a celebrity or a prominent business person.
Among conventional choices, the early betting seems to be on Elise Stefanik.
It's Trump vs. Biden in November, just like it's been all along. Assuming nobody drops dead, of course.
Or assuming polls aren't off in NH. Trump is still a very, very heavy favorite even if she pulls off an upset there, of course, but I'm assuming he in fact wins, and yes, for all intents and purposes by Wednesday morning he's the presumptive nominee.
Side note: I wonder if this was a bit of a last minute elbow jab by RDS against Trump. You'd have to figure the Trump campaign wanted him to stay in through NH. But maybe I'm overthinking this.
"I wonder if this was a bit of a last minute elbow jab by RDS against Trump."
If Meatball Ron wanted to elbow jab Trump, he would have dropped out after the debate in Iowa, and spent the debate propping up Haley ("Either one of us would be a jolt of new energy, instead of a tired, old loser") before endorsing her just before the caucuses. Doing it now is the same old too little, too late that has characterized every non-Trump politician's actions right up until they become his lickspittles.
Idiot republicans still haven't figured out that Trump's plurality only secures him the nomination if the rest of the candidates insist on splitting the vote.
Oh, and also Florida Man apparently *endorsed* Trump, so I guess no elbows are intended.
What a horrible political party, top-to-bottom, from values and objectives to complete lack of strategic acumen.
Idiot republicans still haven't figured out that Trump's plurality only secures him the nomination if the rest of the candidates insist on splitting the vote.
Well sure. Exactly my point. If you're Trump you want RDS to stay in as long as possible. Better to get that endorsement Wednesday morning than Sunday, as long as you win. My gut tells me Ron's departure makes a Haley upset (and thus a Trump loss) more likely. For Trump a NH win (which effectively ends the race) is more critical than an endorsement from that loser.
I assume the polling is sound enough, and Trump will indeed win NH. But if it's off, and Haley were, say, to beat Trump by three or four points, it's not inconceivable that RDS's early pullout might have been the difference maker.
I don't think Haley winning there would do anything except prolong the agony. He'd just get more openly and violently racist and misogynistic, and the gop primary electorate everywhere else will eat that up.
For this NH primary, he made a mistake alienating Christie so badly. He needs Christie's wit to deal with her in a way that won't bother non-republicans. Back in 2016 he was really vicious against Cruz, but everybody with any sense despises Cruz anyway. More likable Rubio was more of a threat that way, but Christie put in the knife for trump so he kept his (small) hands clean of the deed. Not that Haley's likable, of course, but she's at least reasonably sympathetic, and trump will just be nonstop nasty and vile if she's a threat to him. Unless his campaign people can keep him medicated enough.
I don't think Haley winning there would do anything except prolong the agony.
For sure Trump remains the heavy favorite under any NH outcome, including a resounding Haley upset, which almost certainly isn't going to occur in any event. I think he's effectively the presumptive nominee Tuesday night if he wins. If he doesn't win, we'll head toward South Carolina with the GOP primary having the contours of a two candidate race (albeit a lopsided one in terms of the odds).
I'd put it this way: If he wins in NH, Trump's the 98% favorite, with that 2% being either his death, or a health crisis or scandal or legal problem so severe not even 2024's GOP can ignore it. But if he loses he's more like a 90% favorite, because then there's a window for "events" to intercede at a point when very few delegates will have yet been chosen (and you never know).
".. He'd just get more openly and violently racist and misogynistic, .."
That will be useful for the general elections, because it will put off undecided voters.
He's probably daydreaming of an open convention, or a convention where Trump has become so debilitated by circumstances there could be a surge to replace him, --except that everyone who actually goes to the Republican convention will be an idiot, a dingbat or a psychopath.
"Assuming nobody drops dead..."
...or is convicted.
...or is convicted.
Why does a Trump conviction change anything? The constitution doesn't preclude a convicted felon from competing in elections, nor indeed serving as POTUS. And there's no time in any event for one of these trials be be completed, and to get a jury verdict, and to deal with the inevitable appeal, and to get to sentencing. It's long been clear we'd be out of runway before the CJ system could have a decisive impact on the presidential election.
Either the Supreme Court saves our democracy's bacon or general election voters do (or there's an Act of God). Clearly prosecutors and jurors don't have the capacity to do so.
It won't be Biden v Trump if Trump loses his 14th amendment case, which I think is a very real possibility.
You really do think that's a possibility? I'd imagine fear of assassination alone would make it hard to find five justices to enforce the 14th amendment. But I'd love to think you're right!
This topic reminds me a lot of the Chevron deference case: lots of commentators were saying they thought it highly likely the SC would ultimately decide to keep it place (so dire might the consequences of jettisoning it be). Well, oral arguments seem to have put that to bed: hope for reasonableness and prudence from the court's conservatives appears to have been a nice liberal fantasy. I find the notion that the Roberts court will move to deny the presumptive GOP presidential nominee a place on the ballot fanciful in the extreme. But again, I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
My prediction last October that Haley will be the GOP nominee remains on track. She will be the last person standing, come August.
Are you serious? Or being self-deprecatingly ironic? What's that scenario look like? You think NH is an upset for Haley?
It's a long season; wait for it. I previously explained the scenario and recent polling has started to flip.
From your fingertips to God's ears....