Jason Furman reminds me this morning that GDI numbers were released a week ago. Why does it take a month longer to release GDI than GDP? Does anyone know?
Anyway, GDI is Gross Domestic Income, and it's an alternate way of calculating economic output. In theory, GDI and GDP should be identical, but thanks to measurement issues they're usually a little different.¹ Lately, though, they've been way different, and they were way different once again in Q3:
In Q3, GDP came in at 5.2% while GDI was 1.5%. That's a huge difference.
So which one is more accurate? As Furman notes, there are good reasons to think that an average of the two is the most plausible number. In Q3 that was 3.3%, which certainly seems more likely on a gut level. I mean, did summer feel like a season of massive growth? Or a fairly ordinary one? Based on everything else going on (employment, wages, etc.) it seemed fairly ordinary.
¹This is officially known as the "Statistical Discrepancy" because the people who name these things have no imagination.
Well, FRED was already taken…
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