The stock of news stories asking why Americans are so sour on the economy continues to soar. If we could just figure out a way to give people a nickel for every one of these pieces our problems would be over.
But can I please interrupt all these thousands of words? The answer is simple:
- Republicans are unhappy about the economy, not "Americans."
- Sentiment doesn't turn on a dime. Inflation is our #1 economic concern by a mile, and increases in inflation are way more noticeable than slowdowns. Concerns about inflation will eventually abate, but it will probably take until next summer, after rates have been low for about a year.
That's it. That's all there is. Now can we all shut up about this?
1. True Republican views on the economy are very partisan
2. However, a small majority of Democrats also don't see the economy as strong. I suspect the unhappiness is far broader than just inflation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/business/economy/democrats-biden-economy.html
or listen to the recent Slate political gabfest on this topic
as others comment, your issue relative to poor perception of economic environment is materially broader than simply partisans (Republicans) having a clearly overweight negative perception: further from Brookings
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/back-to-the-future-its-the-economy-stupid/
As like inflation denialism / minisation, it is deeply unwise and self-harming to engage in a self-deception narrative, on order of skewed polls.
In any case, none of the evolution is particularly surprising from an international comparative perspective - general populations broadly hate inflationary surprises and while the (generally and above all comparatively) comfortable and insulated professional class that has come to dominate the US Left - the Bohemian Bourgeouisie minimise inflation and priviledge their Left cultural agenda, as like essentially all other cases - developing and developed markets - working class and fixed income cateories absolutely hate inflationary impacts (one could say perhaps the perception of loss is mathematicall overweight from pure maths rational analysis, but humans are what they are and overweight loss aversion and perception is baked in).
Grappling head on rather than ongoing self-deception and "false consciousness" (or Just the Opposition*) narratives would be more useful to successfully examine responses.
(*: which is not to say the opposition does not have a distorted to the negative view)
1) Sure, inflation, or more precisely higher prices, because the average person won't notice inflation subsiding for some time to come as Kevin has noted, are certainly responsible for much of the sour mood many have re the economy. We can hope that by next summer some of this has worn off .
2) It is also undeniable that the extreme partisanship on the right does skew some of the polls on this topic but it is also true that that's not the whole story.
3) But there is a more than a bit of a mystery to what's happening right now. I mean, unemployment was over 6% for most of 1984 when inflation was higher than it is now but it was morning in America for the working class and those on fixed incomes then and Reagan won in a landslide. There is more to this story right now and I don't know what it is. Post pandemic blues ?
4) I don't think you know either but your condescension toward those who don't see the world EXACTLY the same you do is wearying and actually serves to undermine the points you are making.
Just wanted to agree with point #4.
I have to disagree with you on point 4; I think he's a classic attention-starved troll who's trying to get a responce with their oh-so-outrageous comments.
Oh the childish "troll" meaning someone who upsets your Lefty pieties. Pathetic really, your whinging usage.
I'm an Eisenhower Republican, you fucking moron.
I gave you made props for being able to parse his prose.
Well queerly enough I find the pious virtue signaling and preference for circle jerks on the Lefties side rather wearing myself, so there is an equality then.
Ah, the comedy of the virtue signalers attacking others for their virtue signaling. The internet is a great place.
Unemployment is near historic lows. EPOP is back to trend. Wages are up a bit in real terms. The S&P index is up about 12% for the year. Layoffs are right about their 20-year average. Inflation has been dropping. Housing prices are up, which is good for owners (2/3 of households), bad for first-time buyers (<2%]. What ‘broad’ factors do you see?
It's all working exactly as the Republican strategists planned.
1) Convince the Fox News crowd that the country is going to hell in handbasket and Biden's policies are to blame.
2) Other media outlets pick up the headlines and discover how clickbaity they are (see also Doom Scrolling).
3) Now more people think the economy is bad even if it isn't bad for them.
4) Economy drives the next election and Republicans win on the issue.
5) Tax cuts for the rich and corporations!
Results from a recent Economist/YouGov tracking poll of registered voters showed that the majority of people are not dissatisfied with their personal situations:
Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way things are going in your life today? Satisfied 64%, Dissatisfied 35%
How happy would you say you are with your current job? Great deal/somewhat 80%, A little/not at all 19%.
Do you consider yourself paid fairly or underpaid in your job? Paid fairly 56%, Underpaid 38%.
Do you think your family income will increase or decrease in 2024? Increase 45%, stay the same 41%, decrease 15%.
And then there is this YouGov result which the media is choosing to ignore because it contradicts their preferred story:
“Biden’s economic job approval was 75%-17% among Dems, 15%-82% among Rs. This means the answer to this question is not being driven by “lived experience” but by partisanship, and exposure to the right wing noise machine.”
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-economy-is-remarkably-strong
There were two pieces over at NY Mag today that talked about economic dissatisfaction. Both were worthwhile, and contained tons of valid points. Far more than just "it's just Republicans, silly."
View in a fresh private browser to avoid paywall if necessary.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/12/is-widespread-economic-discontent-good-for-the-left.html
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/12/is-your-phone-the-reason-you-feel-broke.html
The Economic Discontent article is quite useful (even if one is of a view disagreeing with its Lefty Left goal orientation) as usefully drawing attention to behavioural economic observation as people generally making relative (and recency biased) and not absolute bemchmarking
This I note is in accord perfectly with my frequent observation that across multiple economies over time that there is a broad popular dislike - hatred even - for inflationary surges - and the blame and credit biases. Not merely an American phenomena nor a recent one.
"In truth, the most plausible materialist explanation for the economy’s unpopularity might be this: People tend to attribute wage gains to their own efforts, even as they blame price increases on economic mismanagement. This hypothesis is backed up by survey data. And it implies that elected officials would be unwise to prioritize tight labor markets over price stability. After all, if they err on the side of overheating the economy, they will receive no credit for facilitating wage increases, but will be blamed for rising prices."
Sounds plausible. I would note an asymmetry in wage attribution — there are powerful interests that work to create the false belief that wage stagnation is due to taxation, not to corporate compensation practices. And certainly not because I’m mediocre.
Also, humans are herd animals. If a bunch of the herd are crying economic pain then the rest of the herd starts assuming there is a widespread economic pain.
Until people psychologically acclimate to higher prices, it will bother people. I don't know how long that takes, but I'm guessing at least another year. Really, they're blaming him more for the inflation that already happened than continued inflation. (Which also isn't fair, but it's Chinatown, Jake.)
Right wing media just continues to pick at that scab.
Prices are high but slowly falling. I'm not sure the average consumer is seeing this anywhere but at the pump. However, my retirement investments are way up, almost 20% across the board, which seems like it should be a bigger deal. Perhaps those increases aren't realized until you cash them in
Uh, not "perhaps" - retirement accounts aren't real until you begin drawing from them or cash them out. Until then, especially given that for most people they're behind a penalty wall for early withdrawal, they functionally do not exist.
Never! Not until the "Biden Crime Family" has been defeated!!
/s, in case it wasn't obvious.
An early October Gallup poll asked: "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous?"
Republicans 53%
Democrats 39%
No difference / No opinion 8%
In August 2020, it was tied at 48% each.
Q: "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats?"
Republicans 57%
Democrats 35%
No difference / no opinion 8%
https://news.gallup.com/poll/511979/neither-party-liked-gop-holds-advantage-issues.aspx
So I bought a new car for the family in October, identical to the one I bought 32 months earlier. But I paid $6000 more for it! Easy to say "thanks Biden for the inflation!"
But here's the thing...the actual price of the car only went up about $1500. Most of the rest was due to having to pay MSRP as opposed to getting it way below MSRP back in early 2021.
Unlike 2021, there was no inventory on the lot, and I had to order it sight unseen and wait 9 weeks for it to be built and delivered.
I suspect this is just one of many instances where someone is getting substantially more money because of reduced inventory, yet it's attributed to Biden and not the real culprits.
Granted, this is a sampling issue, but literally everyone I see complaining about the economy on Twitter or Bluesky is a lefty who wants to bitch about Joe Biden. It's a horseshoe situation.
These are usually the same people who are still complaining that he didn't give them as much stimulus money as they thought they were entitled to, years ago.
My wife was laid off in November but no one is hiring. Even the receuiter admitted that. I'm pretty mad. Unemployment is still a 75% drop in her income and we won't have it long.
I'm so sorry Special Newb. It's really happening below the radar. My brother had a contract position designing store layouts for Walgreens and was laid off right before Thanksgiving. With retail in the dumps, I fear for his ability to get another contract position but he cannot afford to retire as he lost a ton of working years between the great recession and recoving from a brain tumor. He was hoping to work about 8 more years to make up for things but he can't drive so that probably limits things and he is "over qualified" for a ton of positions having a graduate degree from a highly regarded school.
Aside from energy/food price deflation is very rare so the anger of things costing more than they should remains.
What about eggs? Remember when everyone was up in arms about the high price of eggs, which was *obviously* Joe Biden's fault? Well, in much of the country eggs are now cheaper than they were before the pandemic. I bought eggs last week for $1.98/dozen, and they were in the $2.20-$2.30 range for most of 2018 and 2019.
But, yeah, deflation is rare, and potentially catastrophic if it occurs broadly.
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Kevins right.
This is a great example of why we cant have nice things in America.
Its the best economy that current workers have ever seen and we are so easily conned that we cant even see it.
You don't sound like a worker.
Workers sure are happy to be workers, huh? Listen to them sing on the sales floor! If they weren't happy, they wouldn't be singing, would they? No!
Not sure what this means.
What does your imaginary 'worker' sound like?
How do I sound?
But if it's the best why are folks getting laid off and left to blow in the wind like my brother? Why don't we have a better safety net. I think a lot of the rap on the economy is due to how precarious our status in society is these days.
i certainly didnt claim that literally noone has been laid off. And Americans would certainly be better off with a better safety net.
There are scores and scores of people who need a job, deserve a raise, desperately need a better job, are stuck in a bad job and on and on. This can all be true during an incredibly good economy.
What makes it a good economy is that the amount of people currently in this situation is much less than normal.
To reiterate: People do not understand the difference between deflation and disinflation -- they're naively still expecting deflation as a sign that the economy is strong.