So . . . just a quick piece of advice to everyone writing hair-on-fire hot takes about the economy right now: The April jobs report was just for a single month. Ditto for the inflation report, the upcoming GDP report, etc. There's a massive amount of noise in these numbers right now and you really can't tell much from them.
So let everything play out for another month or two. The economy is going to open up in fits and starts and it probably won't be until July or so that we really get a grip on how things are going. In the meantime, chill. Nothing we do right now is going to affect things more than a hair anyway.
Good observation! Hard to generalize in a a once in a lifetime pandemic recovery!
I think it is great that some are still staying home. I live in Michigan where we had the worst surge in cases yet in April. It's now starting to subside, but all around my home restaurants closed because their staff were ill. Schools and youth sports were the source of outbreaks.
If there are folks staying out of the workforce because of benefits, I say "Good for them!" Stay home a bit longer. The help wanted signs are all over the place in my community. Every fast food place and other businesses too. At this stage, why would anyone work in fast food unless you absolutely had to? These are not the jobs we want for people anyway. Not fast food, not low wage restaurants, not any of it. Those 8 million jobs... are not worth getting back.
NO!!! We must immediately cut unemployment insurance for lazy workers and immediately cut taxes for jaaab creeeaaterrrzzz, because otherwise Inflation Monster will come and EEEET US IN OUR BEDZZZ AIYEEEEE!!
And if we raise taxes one penny, EVERYONE WILL DIE!!!
yes. and also, remember they revise these things significantly all the time as better data comes in.
I'm old enough to remember when the GQP's economics knowers were all set to cite an overheating economy as reason to torpedo El Pepe Maximo's infrastructure plan as unnecessary & likely to throw the recovery into a spin.
Now, the economy is on the verge of depression, anyway.
As if one cue, this is the WashPost top story on their website:
"Recovery's stumbles leave Americans facing unfamiliar inflation risk"
"Most economists back the Fed's patient stance, but prices are rising on everything from used cars to cigarettes"
Lol, 1.1 million jobs created in April is stumbling. Let's be clear CRT loving Bezos, seasonal adjustments are wicked due to the covid mess. The Powell formula is to ignore seasonal adjustments and use raw aggregates. Interesting results.
Kevin is dead on on this. I've never seen so much hand-wringing over trivial statistics that we all will have forgotten about in a few months. Have we forgotten what a hell we were in six months ago?
Most people under 65 just became eligible for vaccination a few weeks ago. The effects of a mostly immune population will need time to work their way through the economy. And is it really a "problem" that there is suddenly such a surge of demand in the restaurant industry that it's hard for the workforce to keep up? I'll take that problem over thousands of deaths any day.