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Food inflation is gone, but food prices are still high

Since January, grocery prices have gone up a grand total of 1.1%. That's literally not noticeable. So why are people still complaining about high food prices? This chart tells the story:

Since 2021, which is when the big inflationary surge started, food prices have gone up 20% while wages have gone up only 12%. Shoppers still have memories of what food "used to cost," and it used to be 20% less. Even for folks who factor in their higher wages accurately (which is rare), food is 8% higher than it was before inflation.

This is a bit different from overall inflation, which didn't go as high as food. And the difference is less if you count from 2020, when the pandemic started. But a lot of people probably think of things as "before and after inflation," and in those terms food is still pretty pricey.

19 thoughts on “Food inflation is gone, but food prices are still high

    1. kwikcats

      Overall, here in the Peninsula portion of CA, it is a mixed bag as regards food prices. Specialty markets, like Whole Foods (we call it "Whole Wallet"), Delmonico's, NewLeaf, Bianccinis, etc. offer what I call "sky-high" prices (like $5 for one avocado). Even Trader Joes raises prices like everyone else. I generally do NOT see price increases of 20%, I see price increases much higher per product. At Whole Foods, for example, there is a one gallon plastic water bottle (how much could it cost to make--25 cents maybe?) selling for $13-18!

      A lot depends on the area and the residents income level. In ritzier areas the prices are going to be very much higher--a community market in the pricey Woodside area was selling a 14oz loaf of bread for $12. And people bought it obviously.

      I think Americans are spoiled and go along with outrageous price increases by retailers because they can't control their grasping and acquisition impulses. People have lost the ability to say "NO"--I'm not going to allow obvious price extortions (which supermarkets have bragged about) and I'm voting "No" by not buying that product. We as consumers have shown little self-control there. And retailers have taken advantage of that grasping and clinging.

  1. raoul

    The sticker price for food is certainly higher, but at least here in Northern Virginia, it really is easy to save on food by combining digital coupons, discount stores (Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Lidl) and of course, buying sale items and be willing to shop at more than one store. Right now Safeway has Prime Rib for $4.99 lb. It has never been cheaper. If you are willing to do some work, you will find food prices not to be burdensome at all.

    1. KinersKorner

      Same here in suburban NY. Shop around and prices are nowhere near 20% higher. Sure some stores are seemingly not passing saving along or not using the loss leader strategy. However others are.

  2. middleoftheroaddem

    Inflation is measured by a basket of goods. Some of the items, such as food, energy and rent are frequent purchases. Others, such as durable items like cars, appliances, higher ed etc are infrequent items: these infrequent purchases can, sometimes, be delayed or avoided.

    I THINK for the bottom half of the income ladder, items such as food weigh heavy in their perspective of the economy, inflation, personal well being etc.

    1. Joseph Harbin

      I THINK for the bottom half of the income ladder, items such as food weigh heavy in their perspective of the economy...

      Yet the people complaining loudest are David Brooks, Sean Trende, and Megan McArdle. Maybe they all took a pay cut and I missed it.

      And for what it's worth, the bottom half is where real income growth has been greatest.

  3. D_Ohrk_E1

    I find that the food prices for heavily processed foods has remained elevated, whereas all of the produce, meats, baking necessities, etc., have all come down to more or less pre-pandemic levels, except eggs for some reason.

    1. tigersharktoo

      The answer to eggs is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, (Bird Flu)

      A lot of dead hens not producing eggs. And it takes a while to get new hens in the production cycle.

    2. stellabarbone

      Eggs are back down to stupid cheap in the more reasonably priced stores. I paid $1.89 for a dozen at Target this week. Before avian influenza, they usually cost $1.79 in the summer and $2.29 in the winter at Trader Joe's, so they're kind of cheaper now. They're still almost $3 at Vons though.

      1. D_Ohrk_E1

        It's an odd thing that the Safeway oils are priced about $3 more than Fred Meyer and it's been that way since the COVID lockdowns. Butter goes up and down for me, but the eggs are rarely on sale.

    3. jte21

      The prices for a lot of the inputs for processed foods -- sugar, palm oil, etc. -- are up pretty sharply in recent months. I was looking at some Kraft Mac & Cheese for my snackaholic teen the other day and a four-pack of Velveeta microwave cups was like $5.99 -- that's easily two bucks more than it cost pre-pandemic. Yet a box of regular elbow macaroni is still pretty cheap, as is a block of cheddar cheese. Hmmm.

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  5. jte21

    Eggs are still up, despite producers mostly having recovered from the avian flu pandemic because I think they found the demand was fairly inelastic -- people will still pay $5 for a dozen eggs, particularly if they're cage-free or organic, even if they bitch and moan about it. I bet if we look at the profit margins for the large poultry producers, they're putting up some pretty healthy numbers these days. The other thing driving food prices right now is weather. Severe droughts this year in the lower plains states and South America, esp Brazil have played havoc with beef and soybean prices. Drought in Spain and North Africa has sent olive oil prices skyrocketing. And the Panama Canal authority had to dramatically reduce the number of ships passing through due to lack of water for the locks, which affects all sorts of commodities, but particularly bulk goods like grain and oil.

  6. Jerry O'Brien

    Kevin chose the time span between the beginning of 2017 until now. I have no reason to argue with that choice. But just look at it from beginning to end, and there's no support for "food costs now have become too high."

    Wages up from 85 to 112, or just over 30 percent.
    Food prices up from 94 to 121, or just under 30 percent.

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