I've long had the notion that center-right voters mostly give Republicans a pass for their rhetoric. Sure, Rs say they want to abolish Social Security, ban abortion, overturn the 2020 election, deport every immigrant, and so forth, but they're just pandering to their lunatic wing. It's the price of entry to the GOP tent, but none of those things ever happen. It's nothing more than idle talk.
Well, one of these things has now happened. Republicans finally got the power to stack the Supreme Court and they did just what their lunatic wing always said they'd do: overturn Roe v. Wade and let states ban abortion. It wasn't just talk after all.
So I wonder what effect Dobbs will have on the kind of voter who checks the box for Republicans because they've always figured their bark was worse than their bite. For moderate types, it should be a wake-up call: If they get the power, Republicans will do exactly what their most extreme members have always said they'd do.
Of course, somebody might have to point this out loudly and persistently. It's too bad we don't have an opposition party ready to step up.
But America needs a strong Republican Party! Apparently this means going easy on them until they've staged another 2010-style triumph, whereupon Democrats can become mildly critical of the more extreme right-wingers (while trashing the hard leftists who will be to blame, naturally).
Trump totally blew the playbook or scam the Country Club Rs had forever . Yea you kowtow to the morons T giving them lip service. but don’t give them the court. I truly hope this a total f up on their part.
You are right about the scam that the establishment wing of the GOP has been running. The problem is that their pandering to the lunatic fringe set the stage for the advent of someone like Trump. Remember 2016 of the GOP's "deep bench" of establishment candidates during the primaries? Trump marched through that gaggle by throwing away the dog-whistle and pickup a bullhorn.
Nevertheless, the business wing of the GOP continues to stand by Trump because he delivered the things they want. The culture wars may make the business class uncomfortable but they'll stick with the Trumpified GOP as long as it continues to deliver the things they value the most: tax cuts, deregulation and rightwing, pro-business judges.
Or, as Kevin would say, don't be hard on Joe Manchin- he's claiming now that he was sucked in by them perfidious city-slickers Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, instead of, like everybody else in America, pro or anti-choice, realising they were lying inder oath. We should be nice to pore ol; Joe, and reach out him a helping hand instead of saying mean things against him.
It makes no sense to blame Manchin. We're lucky to have someone who mostly votes the blue agenda. The (GOP) alternative would be far worse. The whole nominee questioning is a meaningless song and dance anyway.
The problems are mostly:
1) Lackluster Dem turnout in midterms. (A solid Dem Senate majority would make outliers like Manchin unimportant.)
2) GOP slash-and-burn abandonment of norms, which robbed two Democratic administrations of a SCOTUS pick each.
In states where moderates hold the balance of power, abortion will generally remain legal, and the moderates will have to decide whether their attachment to abstract theories of Constitutional jurisprudence, or the liberties of complete strangers in other states, outweighs their unhappiness about 8% inflation. In states where a conservative majority predominates, abortion will be outlawed, and Republicans will continue to hold power.
Despite Kevin's opinion, it is obvious that many Republicans will try to outlaw abortion nationwide - they have said so. Even if they ultimately don't have the power to do this it could be used as an issue by Democrats. But the Republicans on the Court have shown that they are going to make decisions that affect all kinds of things, both economic and cultural, in ways that are not popular in the country and presumably in swing states. Democrats need to make the overall radicalism of the Court a major issue, not just on abortion.
It's clear where this Court wants to go next: getting rid of same-sex marriage, and access to contraception. There are a number of thing that we could do to block them:
1 -- pass a Federal law guaranteeing access to contraceptive devices and drugs. My guess is that we could get to 60 votes in the Senate for that, and if not, make the Republicans filibuster it and then run on this issue in the fall.
2 -- pass a Federal law legalizing same sex marriage in all states.
3 -- use an executive order to offer space to abortion providers on Federal land. At a minimum, allow them to provide abortion pills, but I'd go for allowing full abortion services.
4 -- pass a law blocking law suits like those authorized by the Texas vigilante law.
Run on preserving access to abortion rights in the first trimester or to preserve the health or life of the pregnant woman, preserving access to contraception and preserving same-sex marriage. Make Republicans campaign against these thing -- they will lose the suburbs, and that's enough.
I don't understand why so many liberals think Republicans should somehow feel let down "cheated" by losing Roe v Wade. National polls (Pew, Gallup) show that 80-90% of Republicans want abortion to be illegal at least to some extent. So maybe the "moderate" 10-20% are disappointed??? But even they, I bet, would look at this differently than us: the Supreme court didn't make abortion illegal, it just removed the federal law forcing it to be legal. States can choose. People can choose their states and/or choose not to care because they believe it doesn't affect them personally. This is the Republican party we're talking about! Completely different value systems.
I think it's possible Republicans could weather the coming storm reasonably well if the overturn of Roe (a long foreseeable event) were to transpire in the way many (myself included) had envisaged: a few hard right states outlawing abortion with health/rape exceptions; widespread availability of abortifacient drugs; and most states continuing to allow legal access.
But the hard right has gone full-throated nutter on abortion, with strict, exceptionless criminalizations; forced pregnancy even in such extreme cases as the rape of minors or ectopic pregnancies; enforcement across state lines; prohibition of RU-486; and open talk by national GOP political leaders of a nationwide abortion ban. If this isn't "GOP has lost control of the monster they've created" I don't know what else is.
If we can forestall elections nullification (a big "IF" in my view), I do feel finally—at long last!—the Republican Party may soon reap the whirlwind (in a 50-50 nation, even modest shifts in voter sentiment could be hugely impactful).
But why are they like this?
Great photo of Steve Bannon's mom,
https://i.redd.it/hsnwetimb6791.jpg
Is that Mc Connell's sister?
The main objective of the Republican party is not to win the culture wars, it is to win the class war. In fact they have been winning the class war for a long time, about a half century, as the cultural issues have been used as bait to get white lower-income votes. The Republicans now on the Supreme Court may actually have gotten a little out of control with respect to the cultural issues, as Trump was out of control and more blatant about racism etc. than the big-money wing would like, but the Justices would not have been selected if they weren't also dedicated to the enrichment of the wealthy and the empowerment of corporations (whose powers as super-citizens were created over many year by Republican Courts).
So we can expect the Court to be active on economic matters, restricting the power of government to regulate finance, fight global warming, assist unions and so on. These issues should not be neglected. Maybe the Court even has a deliberate plan to distract the country with the cultural issues while it goes after the economy, although I don't know who would be the mastermind of this.
Does a collective intent require a mastermind?
The court holds no sway on economic matters. Nullification is coming.
If conservatives meant it they'd accept only medical care that was available in the 1870s.
Anything else would be too frightening.
Show some balls, conservatives! No need to cower to your own imagination!
Pay your doctor with a chicken, drink enough whiskey until you pass out and let him have had it. What's the worst that could happen? Opium and morphine are available at every drug store.
Republicans have already floated paying doctors with chicken...
they have killed satire....
Sue Lowden would have won (in 2010, against Harry Reid).
I think a lot of center-moderate right Republicans would like to ditch Trump next election in favor of DeSantis. I think what they are missing is Trump’s ability to suck the air out of any room he is in. DeSantis would do no better than Cruz against Trump in my opinion.
And really all Trump would have to do is lift his pinky finger towards running as a third party to bring the Republican Party in to line. Assuming he remains healthy and still wants it, the nomination is his. But I don’t think he will run unless he feels “victory” is guaranteed. So if he runs, then at least in his mind the “fix” will be in. If Trump “wins” due to some sort of cheating what will Kamala Harris do? Will she do what Pence wouldn’t do? I wish The “times” were less interesting.
Trump is toast. Guy's brain is fried. But keep on believing.
Lol, contards love immigration like all capitalists. Smart Dems in regional states with little ties to coastal liberals should use immigration as class warfare against Republican and Zionist Christians who are mostly responsible for immigration. Good ole traditional Bryan populism.
The Martin/Hill moment is coming whether progtards like it or not.
I'd like some folks in the media to ask far-right conservatives how they can grant personhood to a fetus but simultaneously oppose anchor babies. Can you get David Corn to do the honors?
That would be trivially easy for any right winger to bat away: A) Jesus commands forced pregnancy; B) Jesus hates illegal immigrants.
Cynicism aside, I really would like this topic to be front and center of the religious conservatives, particularly those on the Supreme Court.
Moderates will note with interest the results of the Dobbs decision, especially in states controlled by social conservatives: rising infant mortality rates, increased poverty and demands on the welfare systems of states that barely have social safety nets. They will also notice that most young people will be against the GOP because of Dobbs. The Republican brand will start to go sour.
Fox News will tell them it's someone else's fault and spin a story about how they've being victimized and most will believe it.
The only thing that can penetrate is if the entire Democratic party runs against Republicans because of who they are.
They have to campaign against the entirety of the Republican presence in public life.
It should be easy, it should be obvious, it should have been done decades ago, but better late than never because it probably will be never if they don't do it now.
The only issue is Republicans and they're utter corruption of every human value.
You have it exactly right. There are no good, no moral Republicans. They are all awful. Throw them all out.
The three states that are going to matter, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all have one thing in common. 53% of the population are in favor of abortion being legal in all or some situations. Of that 53% 29% identify as republicans. If just 3% of those republicans vote for the democrat in statewide offices the Dems win in 2022 and again in 2024. If 15% of those vote for democrats for the state legislature all three of the states legislatures will switch to Dems.
So to sum up, Dems pick up of Penn and Wis for the Senate and hold the statewide offices in all three. Which means the Electoral College is safe for the 2024 election. And Dems have a 52 seat majority in the Senate.
On a broader note, it may be likely that the 40 house seats that are considered purple or toss up seats according to 538, are much more likely to be democrat wins in 2022. Which makes it much more likely that Democrats may actually hold the House as well. 538 has 186 safe Dem seats with 40 considered to be competitive which would be 226 for the win.
I am not a center-right voter but I would have to think that some women who are may be having a hard think about what has just happened and who they want to vote for moving forward, economy be damned. Please correct me if I am thinking wrongly about the center-right women in the US.
“Please correct me if I am thinking wrongly about the center-right women in the US.”
You’re thinking wrongly about center-right women in the US.
Some are past child bearing age. Others are Catholic or evangelical and figure pregnancy is in the hands of God. Some are lesbians. Others would happily trade bodily autonomy for more lowering of taxes and/or white supremacy. Some will find some flaw with whomever the Dems put up there and throw their vote away on a third party. Others will conclude Both Parties Suck and not vote at all. Some already have a IUD or assume they’ll always have access to birth control. Others assume they aren’t like those dirty sluts and so they personally will always be able to travel to a blue state if they need an abortion.
All will conclude “if it doesn’t happen to me personally, it’s not a problem worth worrying about” which is one of the Republican Party’s remaining values.
If GOP
-o- denial of Biden's win,
-o- support for Trump's scheme to remain in power,
-o- extreme fidelity to the NRA,
-o- silence about Rick Scott's proposal to to make all federal legislation sunset in 5 years.
hasn't convinced moderates that the party is out of control, I doubt Dobbs will make a difference.
The moderates I've talked to are more concerned about $5 a gallon for gas, and inflation in general, and an incoming recession. They recognize that while things weren't quite as bad before Putin's war, they were still moving in the wrong direction. As the phrase goes, "it's the economy, stupid". If the presidential election were held today, every Republican candidate but Trump would win in a landslide, and even Trump would have a decent chance.
While Dobbs should make a difference, it won't; nobody's minds have changed just because SCOTUS fucked up.
I think you're wrong on that. This really is a big deal.
Big deal as in "turn a 17 House seat loss into an 13 House seat gain" level?
Probably not.
But it might turn that 17 House seat loss into a five seat loss. And I could absolutely see it being a difference in one or two Senate races.
I don't know if it's wishful thinking or cognitive dissonance, but convincing moderates (and far-left BernieBro types) may be extremely difficult.
I just talked to someone who was convinced that if Mitt Romney had won in 2016, Roe would be safe. On what planet was Romney ever going to appoint pro-choice justices? Maybe the particular justices would be different, but they'd have been in the mood of Roberts and Gorsuch, at the very least.
Another person is at a total loss as to what to do about this, and listed out all her potential responses, from activism to donations. But voting strategically was nowhere to be found.
Yeah, Romney would have appointed the exact same type of judge if not those specifically. Trump was no outlier in this respect.
"It's too bad we don't have an opposition party ready to step up".
Yet you're the one, Kevin, telling democrats it's useless to pass a national law reinstating Roe. For ... reasons. In reality, democrats need to be running on asking voters to keep the House in their hands and giving them 2 more senators. Democrats need to promise in return to pass such a national Roe law. And if the Court strikes it down, democrats need to expand the Court. Let the voters decide if getting a fundamental right back is more important than the price of gas.
Exactly. There are a lot of things we can do now, and if they get filibustered, we have something to run on in the midterms.
Every Democrat should be promising to pass laws to preserve same sex marriage, access to contraceptives and abortion (in the first 4 months, or to preserve the health of the woman). Biden should immediately issue an executive order allowing abortion providers to operate on Federal lands.
Also, five members of the Court have said that no rights are real rights unless they were generally accepted by the public in 1868, when the 14th amendment was passed. That's a laughable position for these clowns to take, and we should be using it to argue for reforming the Supreme Court to water down the influence of these morons.
What "moderates"?
Anyone who isn't a "conservative" (or at least Right Wing) in the Republican Party today either is already Democrat, ready to switch parties now that game is up like you say or wind up like Susan Collins, a complete and total fool. And yes is this is her last term.
The *party* is reactionary revanchists, you're right, but apparently they get a lot of votes from people who aren't in the party and think of Rs as the safe choice, the one that isn't "socialists" (= will take their stuff) or "communists" (= won't let them do stuff). These are the ones in Wisconsin and Georgia who left the presidential ballot blank and voted R for other slots.
The *party* is putting up trumpier and trumpier people in most places and quite a few who ran as non-trumpy took off the disguises when they swore the oath. I'm thinking of what's-his-name in VA top of the list. De Santis has always been trumpy-but-not-trump while positioning himself exactly as the guy who looks like he should be safe, and it works for people who don't pay attention.
Will Dobbs and the party's crazification end up alienating the ones who've always thought of Rs as the safe choice? Who knows, and it'll likely vary state by state depending on abortion rules. In a lot of districts and states Ds don't need a whole lot of these people to flip (top choice) or stay home (second choice) or leave some offices blank in order to see changes. Small numbers can move enough elections.
But Ds really need to develop and keep to a unified consistent theme about Rs that is a) true, and b) scary for people who want to feel unthreatened, and c) gets Ds to feel like they have something to lose.
(Parenthetically I'd say that means AOC needs to stop bad-mouthing other Ds, and Sanders needs to stop bad-mouthing Ds [since he isn't one himself] but maybe that's just me.)
What "moderates"? Anyone who isn't a "conservative" (or at least Right Wing) in the Republican Party today either is already Democrat...
There's pretty strong evidence a decent-sized chunk of the electorate is up for grabs. Sure, this percentage (likely no more than 15% or so of all voters) is a lot smaller than it was 50 years ago. Ticket-splitting, for instance, is very rare nowadays (Pennsylvania Republican Hugh Scott got re-elected to the Senate quite comfortably in 1964 despite the fact that LBJ carried that state by 20! points).
But the "up for grabs" cohort isn't nonexistent (the meme about the purported vanishing of swing voters that got going 10 or 12 years ago was way overdone).
I'm not sure I'd use the term "moderate" with them. "Non-partisan" might be more accurate. Or "low-information." But such voters are typically A) middle-aged/or elderly; B) not very interested in politics; C) not on Twitter; D) often possess seemingly incoherent views on policy; E) non college-educated from a blue collar or service worker background; F) live in suburbs/exurbs.
Such voters can be found everywhere, but the ones who matter live in purple states: think the exurbs of Scranton or Detroit or Green Bay.
I have no idea how the overturning of Roe will go down with such people. But, to the extent they don't follow politics very much, I think the conventional wisdom says they don't pay a lot of attention unless something huge happens. Maybe this will be enough to get their attention and paint a picture of GOP extremism. Absentee voting starts in about three months.
The types of people you describe, low-info and politically-apathetic, aren’t the types likely to be on absentee voting lists… especially if they live in a state that requires re-applying for absentee ballots each and every time there’s an election.
Not sure I understand you. I mentioned absentee ballots only to stress that the election is near.
The point I was making is that the notion that no votes are up for grabs in November is plainly false; there's ample evidence to the contrary. Probably more than 80% of American voters are unreachable to the party those voters normally oppose. But that's far from all of them.
yeah....
Republicans will tell people the can blame "the gov't" for all their troubles...and voting for them will "fix" everything....(or blame the libs, minorities, etc...heck blame everyone)
Don't blame Abbot, oil companies, or, God Forbid, the NRA...
In other words, they have given up on governance...
It's addicting too--makes life much simpler....
The point the entire debate ignores, and that conservatives work especially hard to ignore, is
a woman doesn't have to have an abortion.
If you want to have a baby, or if you're a saint and you want to have your rapists' baby, there is no law that forces you to have an abortion, but conservatives want to force you to be pregnant.
Without an option of abortion forced pregnancy is state sanctioned rape and slavery.
There is no need for any other argument.
Agreed with provisos.
Problem is twofold: For one thing, this argument involves logic and reason, but that is weak tea when the other side is hysterical. For another, the forced pregnancy crowd thinks they are doing God's will, so they won't debate.
The answer lies in getting the young people out to the polls. They could swing entire elections if they would just show up.
Someone needs to get on that - in every purple state and every race critical to holding the House and Senate, get the young people out to vote. It's their rights being taken away, us olds have had these benefits for years.
They young people are losing the most.
They need to show up.
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I've been of the opinion for some decades that the main thing the filibuster protects is Republicans from their own lunacy. With that in the way, experience encourages people to think exactly how you describe.
Now I think I have at last been vindicated. With the filibuster eliminated on a judicial appointments, They've proceeded to do exactly what they believe in.