According to the Wall Street Journal, "Enrollment in vocational training programs is surging."
Do you see the cheat? This is year-by-year growth, not overall growth since the NSC started collecting data. Here's the real growth:
There was a spike in 2023, but it was only a recovery from the huge decline during the pandemic. Enrollment today is 3% higher than it was before the pandemic—which is fine, but hardly evidence of Gen Z becoming the "toolbelt generation."
We need a new rule: you have to wait for at least two or three years of data before you declare something a trend. Come on.
How do they define "vocational community college"? Our community college has vocational, career and technical, and degree based programs. My kid did an Associates at the community college and went on to a four year university, while friends of hers went to the same community college for hair dressing and another for high end clean room certification.
I'd like to see the VoTech high school numbers, but even those are getting to the point where they're setting people up for advanced degrees.
Vocational and technical education ain't what it used to be.
We noted at the California IHACI (HVAC expo) last year that the future of HVAC is brown. Nearly every student from the big schools was Hispanic or Black. Gen Z might be enrolling in trade schools, but it's not the white kids.
Being that WSJ is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Rupert Murdoch's Lies 'n Stuff Corp, it is no surprise that they consistently report non-existent events and hype items that fit the Murdoch agenda.
Vocational education has been a big "conservative" talking point for years now... the idea being that "ethnic studies" and other liberal kinda stuff is a waste of time and young people should learn technical skills... I would say it's an offshoot of the newfangled "conservative" hatred of education. Thus, not a huge surprise to see the WSJ manipulating the data to make it look like their advice is working...
Not just a conservative talking point. All the trades are experiencing a labor shortage from decades of middle class parents discouraging their kids from blue collar jobs (despite the fact that these jobs pay pretty darn well). It's a class indicator that you don't want your kid working in the trades.
The result is that as the Silver Tsunami progresses, there aren't enough new entrants to the fields to supply the labor needed. This drives up cost to the customer and adds significant wait times. Roofers are booked up three months in advance, electricians around four months. This all goes back to available labor.
Not every kid needs to learn to code, we need a whole bunch of them to decide that sitting at a desk isn't the life they want and to embrace the trades as good jobs that pay well and don't require a Masters. AI might be replacing the coders, but it won't be replacing roofers any time soon.
I know the building trades took a hit after the 2008 downturn. For a while, plumbers and electricians were in high demand. Then it collapsed. It was like aero & astro after the industry collapse in the late 1960s or nuclear engineering after Three Mile Island.
It doesn't help that plumbing and electrical work are guilds, so it can be hard to get certified in certain areas unless you have a connection. My parents had a backup plan for me if I didn't do well in school. One of their uncles was a plumber, so I'd have an "in" with the local guild.
RM Lies 'n Stuff
Not your friend when things get rough
RM Lies 'n Stuff
Won't lie a little 'cause he can't lie enough
Not adjusted for cohort size; so, not answering any question I would ask. What I would ask, is, what proportions of a given cohort are in degree programs, vocational training, the workforce, or none of the above? How have those proportions changed over time? An increase of 3% in the numbers in vocational training means nothing if the cohort is 3% larger.
Our local community college has a program in gambling casino work. Several of the local tribes have casinos and need people who can work on the floor and in the back office. They have to know the law and how to apply, the mechanics of the games, how to detect cheating, how to manage bad behavior, how to recognize compulsive behavior and so on. One of my friend's sons was enrolled rather recently. He was knocking about doing odd job work, then he got a casino job. Now, he's taking it more seriously.
Dad a Union guy, (steamfitter)(later an Engineer) Grand Dad a Union guy (Bricklayer). Mom wanted us to have nothing to with the building and trades as they are cyclical. Feast and famine. She knew that well and as such had her mission. She was correct.
Is "prompt engineering" a vocation?