My beloved YouGov poll suggests the presidential race is now dead even:
This confirms the Morning Consult poll that showed Harris losing a bit of support in swing states compared to a couple of weeks ago.
However, it turns out the entire change in this week's poll is due to Harris losing support from Hispanic voters, dropping from 59% to 50% in the past week. How likely is that? Coming on the back of last week's sudden 9-point drop among Black voters—which reverted to normal this week—I'm starting to have some doubts about YouGov's mechanics.
We Put the Spring in Springfield,
https://x.com/FearghasKelly/status/1833826081754808363
YouGov is much more opportunistic than others in their sample selection, no? This would (1) raise the usual questions of sample subpopulation sizes and (2) make them more prone to freeping.
psa:
freeping - stacking poll results by directing people to a web poll; with the goal of intentionally biasing the results to support their particular point of view
the guardian:
“The headline for the next few days will be how he lost this thing,” one GOP representative told Politico. “I expect him to do something drastic, whether it’s a campaign shake-up or some other wild antic, by the end of the week to change the upcoming news cycle.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/11/trump-harris-debate-republican-reaction
Oooh, oh! What will it be? Will he pull JD's mangled body from under the bus and throw it completely overboard? Insist that Philadelphia isn't actually part of Real America and demand that the debate be done over in Oklahoma City? Incite his crazy followers to attack Disney World? (Disney owns ABC.)
Should we start a pool? Sell futures, or maybe NFTs for various scenarios? Trump Meltdown Trading Cards -- collect the entire set!
if the assassination attempt did nothing for his poll numbers it's hard to imagine what sort of antics would have any effect
and after last night's humiliation our big orange toddler is probably feeling pretty glum today
I've seen clips where he claims he won and has polls confirming this. What polls is the question. Probably made up.
probably a random sample of guests at mar-a-lago and the villages
I saw an article listing these polls (something like four), which actually do exist. Sort of. They are things like Newsmax internet polls and others of an equally "reliable" nature.
Campaign shakeup. Meaning getting rid of anyone who gives him bad news, if there's still someone who dares, and putting in Laura Loomer or someone like her.
I think he's started to conflate his comfort zone with "winning"; that the more bad news he gets, the more he'll elevate bad advisers. And this is just old age. IMO Biden was doing it too (turning to Hunter when he started losing support). Trump is insane on top of it.
Kevin: To echo what a lot of your readers have been saying, why not go with an aggregator instead of a single poll? I consult five of them: Silver, Guardian, WaPo, RCP, and 538. I think she's still up about 2.5 points on that basis (a simple average).
Yeah. Harris is up 2.7 on 538 and 2.2 on Silver this morning. The 538 composite includes the You Gov poll that Kevin mentions. The cell sizes on polls like You Gov are way too small to learn anything useful about individual groups like Blacks or Latino voters. Watching MSNBC this morning obsess about their focus group of undecided voters is truly maddening. Lets see now we have a choice between an intellegent articulate women and a raving incoherent liar. Who should I chose? Of course you do have to know something to know he is lying but I wouldn't think you have to know much to realize he is an angry incoherent bully.
His base either doesn't care he's lying or truly believes him. Not sure which is worse. If you're undecided in this election I think maybe having that elective lobotomy wasn't your best decision.
truth vs lies doesn't matter; they trust him
if the truth works in their favor, that's great, but if it cuts the other way they don't just tolerate bullshit, they demand it
I'm very pro-aggregator, but the way i understand them to work they will react more slowly to changes in the race as it averages in older polls with lower weighting to drop volatility. So having one standard, high quality poll you look at (as opposed to cherry-picking whatever looks the best for your side today) in addition to the aggregates makes sense to me.
but the way i understand them to work they will react more slowly to changes in the race as it averages
This is true, but that's a feature, not a bug IMHO. I don't want the short-term noise.
yeah, but in cases where there's an event that you suspect will lead to a real, sudden change, this lets you see it much faster. so post debate for example, i expect there will be a non-noise jump for harris and i'll be looking at any individual polls coming out with interest.
You should add Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium to your list.
oh yeah, thanks for the reminder. i forgot about sam wang and PEC. link for anyone who wants it https://election.princeton.edu/presidential-race/ .
You should add Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium to your list.
Good call. I'd forgotten about Sam Wang.
“They’re eating the dogs.”
And it looks like a close call. Hilarious. It’s time to let go… it doesn’t matter if he becomes president again, we’ve already lost.
Voting by mail? Don’t count on timely delivery.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/11/usps-mail-election-ballots-voting
Biden should have fired DeJoy his first week on the job.
I use the mail as little as possible now. Too many lost or late items. I drop my mail in ballot in one of the ballot collection boxes. Of course, I live in a blue state city, so drop boxes are convenient and safe
The picture is good enough, but look at the second row,
https://x.com/MikeSington/status/1833869508597203104
the way Eric and Don jr are staring at Trump.
Is this a Godfather moment?
They're thinking for fucks sakes can't he look somber for a minute or two? He's like a five year old who can't stop fidgeting.
Like they told him if he wears his new jacket and just sits still while they're there they'll take him to Chuck E. Cheese afterward and tell them it's his birthday.
more like Sucession
Another thing in the photo,
Trump & Vance. Weird.
It's a puzzle. The NY Times, too, keeps trying to find blacks and Latinos moving to Trump. Why is beyond me when Trump, Vance, and their supporters display their racism more every day.
But then the Times was the only exception to the overwhelming consensus that Harris trounced Trump. While it had several articles agreeing, it led with one claiming that the mythical swing voter isn't buying. The Times also worked hard to include the editor of a right-wing publication in its wrap-up of pundits. Naturally he was the only one to say that Trump won.
All of the Morning Consult poll change could be attributed to its net +2 Republican shift in its underlying weighting of likely voters.
Just saying.
This is depressing:
"Reuters interviewed 10 people who were still unsure how they were going to vote in the Nov. 5 election before they watched the debate. Six said afterward they would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him. Three said they would now back Harris and one was still unsure how he would vote."
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump-2024-09-11/
Doubtful. Media will find what it wants to find. Recall, CNN had an "undecided" group but one was actually a prior Trump voter and was leaning toward Trump. Et voila, he was the only one who said he was going to vote for Trump after watching the DNC, while the others all said they were now leaning towards Harris.