Here is Brian Stryker, a Democratic pollster who worked in the Virginia gubernatorial race:
What was the first thing you told your partners after you got done with the groups — what was your big takeaway?
I was surprised by how dominant education was in this election. I was also struck by how much it was this place for all of these frustrations for these suburban voters, where they could take out their Covid frustrations in one place.
....How do Democrats balance a commitment to core constituencies while at the same time addressing economic issues that voters are confronting every day?
The No. 1 issue for women right now is the economy, and the No. 1 issue for Black voters is the economy, and the No. 1 issue for Latino voters is the economy. I’m not advocating for us ignoring social issues, but when we think broadly about voters, they actually all want us talking about the economy and doing things to help them out economically.
Wait a second. Was the dominant issue in the Virginia election education? Or was it the economy? Only one can be the #1 issue.
One of the most consistent results in political science is that bad economies are bad for incumbents. It's not even a matter of voters explicitly blaming anyone in particular for bad times. It's just that bad economies make people unhappy, and unhappy people generally figure that a new face might be worth taking a chance on.
That's uncontroversial. What's less obvious is whether incumbents stuck with a bad economy can do themselves any good by talking about the economy. I'm pretty sure the answer is no. I mean, what can an incumbent say?
- "We're working hard on it." That just makes you sound ineffective.
- "We need to make big changes." So why haven't you done that already?
- "The economy is better than you think." Makes you sound out of touch.
- "We'll get through it." Makes you sound like you're doing nothing.
There's really no good message. The best thing an incumbent can do is change the subject and hope for the best. After all, Ronald Reagan didn't win a landslide reelection because of his happy talk on the economy. He won a landslide reelection because the actual economy was booming by 1984. Lucky guy.
The good news for Democrats is that the economy is frustrating right now, but it's not all that bad. Doom isn't inevitable. So what should Democrats do? I'd say that's obvious: Do just enough talking about the economy so they sound like they care, but otherwise find some high-salience culture war issue they can talk endlessly about. The key here is to find some issue where Republicans are on the unpopular side. Unpopular. OK?
Maybe they could just reject your premise and correctly point out that the economy is fine. Or are they somehow obligated, as you seem to be, to accept the Republican framing?
But the economy is not fine unless you're a pinheaded banker. 5% inflation, even if it's transient, and higher gas prices (you can just use that for "economy" in any political conversation) etc. really do matter to people. Since you're posting this in the middle of the day while those people are working, you're probably not one of them.
Dismissing what people are concerned with, even if they're wrong, is exactly what led to the loss in Virginia.
I tend to agree with the pollster that a lot of it is inchoate COVID rage, but however it takes shape, you have to meet the voters where they are. This is about getting votes, not the most RTs.
Democrats should run on abortion, connect it with health care. But neither the economy nor any of that will matter if we still have COVID measures in place next fall. It's just about time to start managing COVID as endemic.
Wages are up, there are a lot of good jobs available, personal income growth has been very strong. There is a reason consumers are buying despite inflation.
I got a letter from my utility company not long ago explaining how our heating bills are going to go up this year. They didnt say it explicitly, but it is very obviously the ripple effect of Texas' total disaster last winter. Their stupidity caused massive price increases everywhere, and now we are stuck paying for them.
Yeah, Virginia is going great economy-wise. Yes there are always folks down on their luck but our state economy wasn't in recession, we recovered nicely from the COVID dip. It was educational scaremongering that dominated the recent election.
Did someone say abortion rights? I believe they did.
Yes, they said abortion rights and healthcare.
They did not say self-ID laws, abolishing the police, or teaching that we're all racial sinners (even though we are).
We can say all this until we're blue in the face, but we won't be blue on the election night maps if we run on Robin DeAngelo.
"The key here is to find some issue where Republicans are on the unpopular side. Unpopular. OK?"
If Roe is overturned by the Supreme Court they may have it.
"The economy" is mostly about headline inflation, specifically fuel and grocery prices. It doesn't matter that mean trimmed PCE remains below what it was 30 years ago to the month. All they see is sudden rise in prices for things that matter the most because these are the things they encounter more frequently than anything else.
You have to signal your own outrage at the headline inflation and play pin-the-tail on the bad corporation for taking record corporate profits even while everyday Americans have to pay through the nose. It helps that it's mostly (or at least partially) true.
Avoiding talk about the economy only leads people to think that you know it's so bad that you don't want to talk about it and/or you don't want to listen and empathize with them.
Missing from this speculation is any realistic response from somebody who lived through the interminable advertising of the Republican gubernatorial campaign.
Over and over, day after day, Glen Youngkin kept hammering the same message. It was a sound bite, taken out of context (sort of), of Dem candidate Terry McCauliffe saying that parents shouldn't get to tell the schools what to teach. Youngkin then went on to say, over and over again, that when HE is Governor, he will make sure the schools listen to the parents, instead of just the ivory tower bureaucrats in Richmond.
With that one sound bite from McCauliffe, Youngkin convinced a lot of Virginians that he was in touch with the electorate, and paying attention to them, while McCauliffe was a typical Democrat who thought he knew better than everybody else and didn't have to listen to them.
The one most consistent thing we've seen in political campaigns in the last 50 years is that when a Democratic candidate sticks his foot in his mouth, the Republicans will not let us forget. So we have to STOP saying stupid stuff!
Ken you are spot on. OMG the ads got so annoying and so transparent yet they fooled the voters. ARGH.
The problem for the Democrats at the moment is there's really very little they can say or do about much of anything. Biden, in fact, had very good and comprehensive plans to improve people's economic situations and I think that would've put them in a good place for 2022 and 2024. Unfortunately, the asshole from Arizona and the asshole from West Virginia (plus assorted corrupt "moderate" Democrats) have made sure that nothing good will happen for anybody except the very, very rich.
There's nothing the Democrats can say about the economy that's going to help, either. Partly for the reasons that Kevin gives but also because the reason why the economy isn't really doing well for most people is because of the Democrats inability to make the assholes and "moderates" support the party's policies. Which obviously makes it more than a little bit pointless to vote for Democrats to improve the economy.
I think the only way out for the Democrats is to basically excommunicate the assholes, argue that they're Republican saboteurs, and then run against them and the Republicans (something the Democrats don't really do) in 2022 and 2024.
And yet our economy is stronger than it was pre-covid and better than the economies of all the other rich nations. It is better than it was under Trump, that stable genius.
A recent headline in Business Insider:
“One gobsmacking chart shows how Biden's economy is doing way, way better than all the others”
“The US's recovery has been so strong, it's played a significant role in lifting the world economy. Healthy third-quarter growth in the US, Korea, Israel, and some European countries led GDP in the 37-country OECD group to surpass its late 2019 levels by the end of September, according to the report.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-economic-recovery-beats-other-advanced-economies-gdp-rebound-2021-11
I don’t disagree with you. It’s unfortunate that most Democrats are not really good at political messaging. Also, basically, an awful lot of the political air has been sucked out of the Biden administration by the two assholes and their preening.
Just now, as I'm approaching 65 years old, one thing I've recently found out that no one mentioned before is that I'll have to pay $170.10 a month for Medicare, minimum. I've already paid for Medicare as a payroll tax deduction my entire life, not to mention the tens of thousands of dollars I've already paid for health insurance my entire life. Surely, this $170.100 fee for seniors must be unpopular. Democrats could start by repealing it.
Folks like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and AOC tried to improve Medicare but Manchin, Sesema and the other conservadems shut that down.
I don’t hear my friends seniors complaining about this and a couple of them are on limited incomes. The only thing they complain about is prescription drug prices. It is adjusted by income so poorer seniors don’t pay what those of us who are better off do.
I would like to see the costs of medical care in general and drug prices in particular addressed.BBB addresses that because it give the government the ability to negotiate those price. Right now we should be addressing the costs that people whom aren’t yet eligible for Medicare have to pay.
The Part B premium just gets subtracted from your Social Security check/autodeposit, so it’s not as noticeable as copays for drugs. Salience drives (heh) the weight people give to gas prices, also.
The economy is booming better now than 1984. Sad, but true. 2% growth on average through the 1984 with the Volcker waves accounting for most of it. Sure, you got some inertia with the economy.....But that wasn't Reagan's real sauce. My guess Democrats are feeling that same sauce in 2022: power crime and disinflation. Wait until the campaign on Trumps weak border control......showing the map to prove it.
Crime is nowhere close to the level it was in the eighties — not that our Chicken Little media will let facts get in the way of their desire to scare people.
"Crime isn't as bad as the '80s" has got to be one of the worst campaign slogans ever. What next? "You still have more abortion access than your grandma had."
The crimes that are high right now are exactly the kind that freak people out: murders, carjackings, mobs attacking stores. It's the kind of stuff that makes people afraid to go out.
Murders should start going down a bit over the next year just naturally, which will help make people feel safer. But we also need legislative action on online resellers so that the big shoplifting events slow down.
Nah, do nothing, watch it drop. It's already leveled off.
Crime rates dropped sharply in 1983-84.
The economy grew by 7% in 1984. Try again, this time before the tequila shots.
I believe the economy is much better than the news about it right now. My guess is that economic messaging will be a little easier next year than at the moment.
Abortion is a wild card. If a decision overturning Roe happens midyear, what will Dems do? They could pass legislation protecting a woman's right to choose nationwide. They have the majorities. But with the filibuster, Manchin et al., it's not likely they will do that. It is going to be hard to run on "Vote for Dems to protect women's rights" if the majority party is already not willing to do what it can. Hard to tell yet how much the abortion issue will be a motivator or a disappointment for Dem voters. Maybe an opportunity to win indies? The impact on conservative voters? Probably a positive for them. I'm not sure, and I don't think anybody knows yet how abortion will affect the midterms.
The traditional view on abortion from Byran to LBJ was court neutrality inside the Democratic party. This is something most people forget. It will force grass roots organizers to push for state wide votes to decide it's fate. It's where it should have always been.
People are tired of Covid...and will lash out. The economic fears are Covid fears--they don't feel that Covid is over and maybe we'll have to lockdown again.
And for education in VA. Apparently many parents are still upset schools didn't open LAST YEAR. It really doesn't matter what the current meme may be, parents were just upset.
People are feeling upset and insecure. And that's easy to stoke. Even if everything is being done right and the economy is good--grandkids having to wear masks means where still not out of Covid. Grandma dying of Covid is also bad, even if was because the grandkids didn't wear masks. That's why the Republicans have gone pro-Covid. FUD Fear Uncertainty and Doubt. Just make sure the other side is to blame for your policy failures, and you're golden--no need to fake sincerity.
There is no lockdown ever coming for this particular disease ever again. Are you that stupid.
Everything I've read suggests the anti-vax stance of the GOP is unpopular with persuadables. Democrats might want to focus their efforts on relentlessly attacking on this front. If the effectiveness of this tactic wanes with time, it'll most likely be because the pandemic is fading, which would help Democrats in any event.
In Virginia, Youngkin first tried claiming that "Virginia's economy is in the ditch," but then good economic news kept coming in, and Virginia was named the best state for business, and the claim was falling flat. So Youngkin pivoted to education misdirection, which worked well enough.
I've long contended that the economic message that Democrats can always give that Republicans are on the unpopular side of is "YOU need a raise!" Just keep harping on that, pretty much to the exclusion of everything else, and keep saying that Republicans do everything they can to make sure you don't get a raise.
The obvious issue for democrats to be talking about is the Court about to overturn Roe. Everything else pales in comparison. Then wait for the economy to be in good shape by November, 2022.
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