Time for something weird. Springfield, Ohio, as you know, is currently famous as the site of the Haitian cat-eating hoax being promoted by Donald Trump and J.D. Vance. This has turned out to be a fabrication, but there's broad agreement about the background story: Springfield was a dying town until 2014, when local leaders began a project to attract new employers and, eventually, new workers. Many of the workers were Haitians living in Florida and elsewhere who heard the town's appeal and moved to Springfield in hopes of getting better jobs. In the end, something like 15,000 Haitian immigrants came to Springfield.
But there's something odd going on. Here's the population of Springfield (the city itself, not the MSA):
Springfield's population has been flat since 2014, actually declining slightly. Here is employment:
This confirms the overall population story. Employment has been flat since 2014. Of course, this doesn't tell us anything about the composition of the population. Here's that:
Through 2022, at least, the Census Bureau recorded virtually no growth in the number of residents born outside the US.
This gibes with decennial census data. Between 2010 and 2020 it records a drop of 5,000 white residents, no major change in Black or Hispanic residents, and an increase of 2,500 in multiracial and "other." That puts a hard cap of 2,500 on the number of new immigrants through 2020, and the real number is probably a good bit lower.
Housing units? Down slightly. GDP? Down slightly. School enrollment? Flat. Median income growth? A bit less than the national average. The number of people who don't speak English at home? Less than 3,000.
What the hell is going on? This data comes from the Census Bureau, the BEA, and the BLS, so it's not just a matter of a single agency screwing up. They're all producing data that's in broad agreement: there's been no economic renaissance in Springfield, no population recovery, and nowhere near 15,000 new immigrants of any nationality.
Obviously there are Haitian immigrants in Springfield. But how many? I'd be surprised if it was much over 2,000, with possibly some more living outside city limits. Either that or there's something hella weird going on with our statistical agencies.
UPDATE: Using data through 2023, the Haitian population of Springfield might be closer to 4,000. Details here.
Interesting. What is the data for the MSA? A quick glance suggests it's much bigger.
Is it possible the politicians and media are twisting two different data points together? That is, referencing the immigration numbers from the MSA with the total population from the town?
The MSA tells the same story. Springfield is the county seat of Clark County, whose population peaked around 1970.
I think the reason Kevin's charts are missing the influx is that the influx happened during 2023 and 2024. Tables ending in 2022 would miss that. The only table Kevin has that is current enough is employment level, and it's difficult to tell how much from the last year is jobs given to immigrants vs COVID recovery. Also, as a fairly rural county, the influx might be cancelling out employment losses that would happen otherwise.
ask putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/haitian-immigrants-fueled-springfields-growth-now-us-presidential-debate-2024-09-11/
The charts begin in July 2022 and are based on Medicaid enrollment and data from the Ohio DMV.
“Based on data provided from numerous sources, such as Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles, Springfield City Schools, area healthcare providers and social services agencies, the total immigrant population is estimated to be approximately 12,000 – 15,000 in Clark County,” the city’s website read."
https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/central-ohio-news/what-we-know-about-haitian-immigrants-in-springfield-ohio/
So the estimate comes from data that Kevin isn't using. And while the estimate was posted on the city website, it's clear the estimate applies to the county as a whole.
When your intent is to understand what is going on, you are doing one thing. When your intent is to divide and conquer, you are doing the opposite thing. The only thing to understand is how to divide and conquer. Blame Haitians. Blame Mexicans, Blame woke leftists. Who cares who you blame or whether there's any relationship whatsoever between the blame and the blamed. Just don't blame the pets, as Kristi Noam discovered. .
Why are we earnestly attempting to make sense out of bullshit?
because kevin's tuesday afternoon lunching crew brought it up.
“Through 2022, at least, the Census Bureau recorded virtually no growth in the number of residents born outside the US.”
This isn’t true from your graph. The number went from something like 1500 to 1795 in the most recent estimate (which may be missing an influx in 2023-24 as others mentioned). But even 1500 to almost 1800 is a 20% increase. Sure the actual numbers are low, but that’s still “growth.” An increase of 0 to maybe 5% could be characterized as “virtually no growth,” but 20% is significant.
"In waging rhetorical war on the Haitian immigrants of Springfield, Ohio, Vance has clarified the meaning of his convention speech. It does not matter, to Vance, that these Haitian newcomers came here legally, under the Temporary Protected Status program. It does not matter that they filled a valuable need. It does not matter that they reversed a slow collapse that has already sapped the life from so many former industrial towns. It does not matter that they work hard and seem eager, by all accounts, to establish themselves as productive members of the community."
- Jamelle Bouie, yesterday
Speaking of TPS, how many times has TPS ever actually be rescinded for a group?
Use google already. People from a dozen countries have had TPS for limited times which was eventually revoked. The most recent countries to have TPS revoked were Guinea and Liberia, both of which had TPS from 2014 - 2017 due to the Ebola outbreak.
At some point the MSM will figure out that the popularity of the modern GOP has nothing to do with economics, foreign policy, or crime and everything to do with racism and religion. I don't expect the light bulb to go off in my lifetime. The "news" part of the NYT will continue to act as if it were some mysterious, unknowable reason why Trump voters still love Trump.
This whole Trump “they’re emptying their prisons” and now “Haitians are eating park ducks and pets” thing is just a rerun of two late 70’s early 80’s events. And this kind of makes sense because Trump’s head is stuck in the 80’s.
Those of us who lived through those times are probably thinking “oh no, this shit again” but it occurs to me that for younger people this is new.
Back in 1980s there was an event called the Mariel Boatlift. A large number of Cubans wanted to leave and come to the U.S. when they came, they were granted political asylum. Eventually Fidel Castro allowed them to come if they had someone in the U.S. to receive them. Castro indicated these people were “undesirables” for various reasons (including homosexuality) and the rumor was that he was emptying his prisons and mental institutions and sending them to the U.S. The Wikipedia article explains it pretty well, I think. Note that the Al Pacino movie Scarface is a product of those times:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariel_boatlift
Also around those times a large number of Vietnamese people attempted to flee the Communist government there due to the fact that they were persecuted for collaborating with the U.S. during the war and for various other reasons. They were known as “The Vietnamese Boat People” and many came to America. These people were also accused of being criminals by some in this country and there were many rumors of refugees eating park ducks and stray animals. I also recall how they were accused of driving up prices of homes by purchasing homes and having several families live in them. Again, the Wikipedia article tells the history. Of the event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_boat_people
So what I think has happened is that Trump and his crew of bigots/racists/xenophobes have conflated the prejudices of these events to demonize the Haitians.
These two episodes were widely publicized at the time and had some particularly inflammatory local repercussions, like clashes between Gulf Coast shrimpers and Vietnamese arrivals, that a lot of people may dimly remember now. They also echoed many, many earlier panics and some other recent immigration scares, like Somalis in Minnesota (the hue and cry against Ilhan Omar is partly a hangover from that).
As a historian I think it's always worthwhile trying to dig up actualities that underlie what people make of events. However, in a sense the relationship to real events doesn't matter all that much here-- the online right has its own nearly-closed ecosystem of myth based on personal "witness" so it operates in a medieval mode, much closer to well-poisoning crazes and real-life witch hunts than to anything Enlightenment rationality will produce. Or like the villagers in Frankenstein, the movie.
Marcy Wheeler has a new post up about Harris's debate tactics that touch on this, where she points out that rebutting any of trump's individual lies isn't going to move his cultists because they take his lies on a faith that's based in the authority they grant him. His authority is what needs to be blown up, not his inaccuracy. I think that's basically right.
And I think we'll get further seeing this whole trump episode as something out of a gothic novel or a history of medieval crazes, rather than something that belongs in contemporary political discourse.
I agree that trying to refute Trump’s fire hose of lies in real time is a fool’s errand and really what he wants. Harris is smart to not even try and I think trying to do that was Biden’s problem in the first debate.
But the Democrats really should have a readily accessible database with all Trump's lies, as was discussed in a previous thread.
"The same old, tired playbook" -- Kamala Harris
This lies smearing the Haitians of Springfield today are the same lies that smeared the Cubans and the Vietnamese and other immigrants throughout American history. The smears weren't always against people of color. The Irish, Italians, Germans, among others, were also targets of the same kinds of lies. The Jews through history have been reviled as outsiders, and the targets of lies known as "blood libel" going back to medieval times and even antiquity.
Knowing the smears are lies is not enough to stop them. JD Vance admitted the stories are "created" on TV today but he still justifies telling those lies to get the media attention he and Trump crave. In normal times that should be enough to end any campaign. Maybe even now it will help turn the tide.
>> JD Vance admitted the stories are "created"<<
I saw that and it occurred to me that he should be ask about Trump’s “affair” with Loomer as noted in Cld’s link.
"Maybe even now it will help turn the tide."
Hard to believe. JD Vance is actually being more honest than Trump, so anybody that is not put off by Trump's anti-honesty should not have a problem with JD Vance's dishonesty.
The Boris and Natasha of the maniac monkey movement,
https://www.politicalflare.com/2024/09/rumors-of-affair-between-trump-and-loomer-grow-louder-with-loomer-reportedly-telling-friends-she-performed-sex-act-on-former-prez/
That may be a campaign gimmick, trying to prove that he is still a capable man.
Can't tell if he's robbing the cradle or the crypt,
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fxqreserenn7d1.jpeg
👍👍👍👍😄😄😄
Or cover for taking her on as an actual campaign consultant, maybe. Or both. Like cld, I can't say I admire his discernment either way.
Washington Post is reporting that Vance admitted making up the story of immigrants eating their neighbors' pets. NYT merely says that Vance stands by the discredited story.
Hey Kevin,
I'm not sure if you can see it, but you're sanewashing stochastic terrorism.
The "cat eating hoax" isn't just a joke to get back at people joking about JD making love to futons.
Just thought I'd let ya know!
-Concerned US Citizen concerned about other US Citizens who are being fucking threatened
Sanewashing - stealing this.
Not mentioned in all this hullaballoo about Springfield is the fact that Haitians are potentially a significant voting bloc in Florida. I wouldn't swear to it, but I kind of think they lean D, and Florida's looking unusually tight this year.
I wonder how much that might figure into all this myth-making and scaremongering.
And in recently breaking news....Trump states on social media. " I hate Taylor Swift". Please make it stop. Trump is going to get someone hurt or killed. But just remember it's all about him so he could care less. This is no longer just a shit show it's downright dangerous.
".... someone hurt or killed" => ".. many people hurt or killed."
He wants to be "strong" like Putin/Xi/Kim, and for that he "must" hurt significant number of people.
Agree. Someone or many one person harmed in any way is of course wrong.
While we're on the subject of violence, reports as of about 3:30 ET are that the Secret Service heard gunshots near where trump was golfing and the Palm Beach PD has a "person of interest" IDed, nothing confirmed or proven.
Well, this is another one ripe for suspicion. On the one hand, coincidence is possible; on another hand, trump may in fact not have been a target; on another hand, plenty of people are deeply pissed at him; on yet another hand, plenty of his own people are deranged gun nuts and some are disappointed with him; on yet another, there are just a lot of deranged fame-seekers out there; on yet another, are his own people beyond faking something to goose his support. Just asking.
couldn't care less*
I know there's an idiom "could care less" that means the same thing because, well, people are gonna.... people. But it needs to be point out that Trump could NOT care less about other people.
Yeah, I am "going to be people" LOL. Let me add that I hope you intended to say, "needs to be "POINTED" out". Red pen and idiom critique aside. I think we both understood what we were trying to convey. Right?
Unfortunately, celebrity entertainers are almost always in more danger from their "fans" than from anybody else. Swift is a billionaire celebrity entertainer; I expect she spends millions a year on security, and Trump motivated possible violence probably doesn't appreciably increase the threat level her security is already dealing with.
Short form, she's a VERY hard target. Haitians who can't afford personal security teams are at much more risk.
Dave Chappelle lives just south of Springfield. If you think he's not going to weigh in, you don't know Dave Chappelle.
Let's talk about the elephant in the room, courtesy of a story I would like to tell
One day while working I overheard a conversation three years ago. It was a fella that owned a rental unit that housed one of his neighbor's kids or someone like that. Anyways, he was apparently pissed this white (I live and work in an area where the population is 90 percent white) 20-something person not only spent the bulk of his time on his couch playing video games (either the girlfriend or roommate worked I think) but he was getting an additional incentive not-to-work in the form of a government stimulus check. "That lazy good-for-nothing is going to get $2,000 for doing nothing! All he does is sit on his ass all day playing video games. It's a disgrace!"
So why wasn't this person working at all? It wasn't like there were no jobs. There's plenty of jobs available. Low wages? The wage floor now is $15 per hour, well above minimum wage. Can't get anyone lower than that. Even immigrants. As someone who used to believe immigrants being paid lower wages were taking jobs from the native-born, I realize that's just not true anymore and even if so, there's not enough immigrants in a given area to offset the amount of paid openings that could lower wages.
The local officials, the governor and local businesses love having the Haitians in Springfield because you have a ready and willing labor force. That's the key. They show up on time, do their jobs and come back the next day. The employers don't have to worry about whether the workers are on drugs or flunked drug tests or have criminal records or such or just plain lazy and slovenly.
In other words the local "white" workforce has been found wanting by their own leaders that local businessmen were more than willing to tolerate having to import a new workforce. No doubt this is what pisses off Trump/Vance et. al and their supporters. That's why tales about immigrants and dead pets, old tales to be sure told about of lots of immigrants throughout the ages have been told. Although, one must admit if these immigrants were Swedish, it's doubtful there would be any discussions or complaints at all because the numbers of Swedes looking to emigrate is far lower than Haitians given the condition of the two countries currently.
So here we have the so-called "white working class" apparently not so willing to work and would rather hustle, live on welfare or charity or mooch or bum or what have you to survive, just as Vance had wrote about. Why? What happened to all those supposedly hard-working American native-born citizens?
Here's a guess - only a guess but I think a good one. They don't like "work" as it is commonly done in this day and age.
I remember the old labor leader from Chicago "Oil Can Eddy" Sadlowski who worked in the steel mill there saying that guys he knew would give their right arm to get out of working in the mills. Too many intellectuals, too many pundits who work from desks and computers have no idea what this work entails and the damage it does to the body, mind and soul. But for many workers they had no choice. It was either that or starve. Only being in a union and making enough to at least afford a home and such made it tolerable. But many made damn sure their kids went to college to never have to work in the mills or the plant or even the family farm one step away from bankruptcy.
If you're a young kid growing up and you see your parents fight because your Dad had a tough day on the job or was laid off, or money was tight and they're arguing over finances, you don't want to go through that when you grow up. You don't want the injuries your father suffered through, the indignities from management or even their own union leadership. You don't want to get addicted to Oxy just to deal with pain and suffering.
So they don't work. They don't go to the Amazon plant just to move boxes around. To them it's not worth it and there ain't no union to protect them from getting dumped on. So what's the point? If some Haitian is willing to do it, let em'. If they can get by by not going through all that, they will. And you may well too. It's just human nature.
Hey, employers aren't just going to wait around for that great white working class hero to walk through that door anymore. They want a worker not an ideal. That's what Vance doesn't get and never will get. Because those jobs were open for that white worker to take for years and years and years and they didn't take them for whatever reason and it's more than just about wages.
And besides, all you freaked out about inflation, just be glad there are immigrant workers to take those jobs. Just think what you would have to pay if there weren't. Can't have it both ways.
I think you've gotten a bit overenthusiastic about reversing racist stereotypes. Slackers have always been with us, and they're found in every identifiable group. There's probably a bit of selection working with first generation immigrants, in that to immigrate calls for at least some get up and go; the Haitian slackers are probably mostly still in Haiti. However, I would bet that the children of Haitian immigrants, whether born here or came here as small children, will have their fair share of slackers too.