This is a little down in the weeds, but Josh Marshall today points to another analytic estimate of how many Haitians actually live in Springfield, Ohio. We all agree that various data points suggest a moderate population increase up through 2022, but what if the big surge was in 2023? David Jarman at The Downballot presents a few data points for Clark County:
- The school district reports an increase of 317 ESL students in 2023,¹ and the Migration Policy Institute estimates that 7% of all Haitian immigrants are under the age of 18. This suggests a total increase of about 4,500 Haitian immigrants in 2023 if we assume that every ESL student is Haitian. More likely, if we assume half are Haitian and they make up 10% of the population in Springfield, the increase in the total Haitian population comes to about 1,500.
- Medicaid rolls show an increase among Black enrollees of about 4,500 above expectations. Maybe a quarter of that is Haitians who identify as Black?
- The total population increase in Clark County among those with a race of "Other" is about 2,000.
Meanwhile, we do have data through last month for the total number of employees in the Springfield metro area:
It's up by 1,000 in 2023 and 1,300 through 2024, which suggests a total population increase of about 2,200. This is pretty reliable data, but it doesn't tell us how many of those are Haitian. Certainly no more than 2,500, even if the white population has declined a bit. And you can cut that in half for just Springfield city. Call it 1,300.
These are all super rough, but taken together we might take a horseback guess of 2,000 additional Haitians in Clark County in 2023. That's maybe 1,500 in Springfield? Add that to my guess of 2,000 through 2022 and we get to 3,500 total.
Jarman, for reasons I don't quite get, nonetheless estimates the Haitian population at 10,000. I'm genuinely unsure where this comes from. For now, though, it looks to me like the Haitian population of Springfield city is unlikely to be above 4,000.
¹This has been corrected. Jarman incorrectly reported a 12.5% increase in ESL students but it was actually an increase from 8.5% of all students to 12.5% of all students. That works out to 317 students, an increase of more than half.
But this data point is especially shaky. There's no reason to think all, or even a majority of ESL students are Haitian. Nor is it likely that only 7% of Haitians in Springfield are children. The makeup of Haitians who move to Springfield is probably quite different from Haitian immigrants in general.
I would take this derived statistic with a big grain of salt.
Maybe, ask Jarman where his 10,000 number comes from? Or ask him to comment on this blog posting
Or ask Jarman to comment on this blog post.
Most people seem to have picked up on the number from the City of Springfield website:
Q: How many Immigrants live here in Springfield?
A: Although it is impossible to provide an exact number, based on data provided from numerous sources, such as Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles, Springfield City Schools, area healthcare providers and social services agencies, the total immigrant population is estimated to be approximately 12,000 – 15,000 in Clark County.
https://springfieldohio.gov/immigration-faqs/
Most reporting seems to have taken this and claimed there are 12,000-15,000 Hatians living in the area even through the website doesn't say what % of the 12-15,000 are Hatian.
Stop fucking sanewashing this shit.
+A million
This is what they want.
I had the same thought, and now I have a word for it. Thanks.
+100
It’s hard but I gotta keep reminding myself daily (hourly?) to just stop trying to make sense of this
Agreed. It is so clearly a bad instinct to squint and rub your eyes for days and weeks trying to find away that anything these sociopathic fabulists say has any meaningful connection to reality. FFS, Vance just straight up said on camera he doesn't care if the stories he relates are true as long as it makes us all chatter about it.
These Haitians came to Springfield from elsewhere in the states, yes? And have been in the US potentially for some time under what we refer to as Temporary Protected Status. So their children have likely either been born in the US or been here for some time. So guessing based on ESL is probably a poor proxy.
Many children born in the US are enrolled in ESL. If both parents speak Haitian French as a first language, it is very likely their children speak limited English when they enter elementary school.
ESL can be needed up until the 3rd generation in families where grandparents do most of the child care. Even if mom and dad speak perfect English, everyone may speak the Grandma's first language when at home.
MC has Harris up 6 and YouGov has her up 4. By the way, why does it matter how many Haitians are living in Springfield?
If Haitians and other minorities aren't allowed to live in Ohio, GTK. Don't need to visit, ever.
I mean, I can't help but think that this whole pet-eating thing is deliberate conservative counter-programming to Trump's constant homage to the late, great cannibal, Hannibal.
"... why does it matter how many Haitians are living in Springfield?"
It is sanewashing. Trump and friends make outlandish and outragous claims, and instead of treating them as such, discussing some details of their claims and if it matters.
Why does Kevin do sanewashing I have no idea.
"... why does it matter how many Haitians are living in Springfield?"
The answer was beautifully articulated in the flick - Big Short
”I have a feeling, in a few years people are going to be doing what they always do when the (their) economy tanks. They will be blaming immigrants and poor people."
Pete Buttigieg has it spot on. Trump's flooding the zone with shit is an effort to get everyone talking about this so no one is talking about his record. Kevin is obliging nicely.
About the bomb threats- Very few if any GOP leaders have publicly stood up to say violence, especially from a completely false story, should not replace the ballot box.
iiuc the OH gov only said he was sending state police to help with the threats but said nothing about violence.
My observation over many years is that there are bombers and bomb threateners and there is essentially no overlap between the two groups. If a bomber targets, for instance, a school, there will be no warning, just a kaboom. Timothy McVeigh was a bomber. Bomb threateners, on the other hand, almost never have a real bomb; they're just shit disturbers who like to see how much scurrying around they can provoke the authorities into with a phone call or email, and they don't actually intend to hurt anyone.
Unfortunately, no matter how many hoax bomb threats come in, it's still necessary to respond as if there really is a bomb, because one of these days there could be.
True. The only overlap I know of is organized terrorist groups like the IRA.
The IRA didn’t call in threats, but warnings; if they notified authorities of a bomb, there was a bomb. IIRC, they used certain code words that identified them as the IRA, and not a prankster.
ETA in Spain normally threatened first and then carried out the attack as stated.
Who cares how many Haitians are in Springfield. They have jobs and are productive members of the community. A lot of dying Midwestern towns should looks at Springfield as a model to follow.
So 4,000 and not 10,000?
60% of the canine and feline population of Springfield breathing a little easier now.
/s
I'll just mention here that we did have a recent violent criminal in the national news who killed pets: the white guy who shot a bunch of people on the highway in Kentucky.
He threatened neighbors (including a child) with his gun, likely killed three neighbor dogs, and then went on a shooting rampage.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kentucky-shooting-gunman-neighbors-joseph-couch/
Also a Republican governor thinks it’s a-ok to gun down pet dogs.
Why is anyone wasting a single second trying to parse data from multiple sources just so they can say "OK, maybe there are 4000 Haitians in Springfield", when the ONLY sane response should be "Claiming 20,000 Haitians were just dropped in Springfield is a complete racist lie"
Trump keeps playing media folks for idiots. He says the most outrageous lies and then the dumbass lemmings behind the keyboards, microphones, and cameras always feel the need to BUT everything.
"What Trump said is inacuratte BUT if you squint a bit, stand on your head, spin a few times, and look at the current star alignment, he has a point."
The lies that come out of Trumps mouth on a daily basis will always be far greater than the total number of Haitians in any given year.
"I'm genuinely unsure where this comes from. "
It smells like an ass number to me.
One thing that I like about Kevin's blog is that it has an atmosphere of reserve regarding current events. It's refreshing to get away for a moment from the sea of substacks and Twitter(X) accounts which, while they are useful, often have a rushed / panicked / existentialist vibe which is exhausting at times (especially after Trump or Vance do their thing).
Kevin was like that at Mother Jones, but a little more tranquil at jabberwocking. Visiting this blog takes down my blood pressure 10 points.
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