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How many new jobs have we created this year?

I want to emphasize something that I mentioned in passing yesterday. Here is employment measured two different ways:

The orange line is the usual payroll employment number that we see every month. It tells us that we've created 2.5 million new jobs since March.

The blue line is the employment level. It's a broader measure, and on a month-to-month basis it's less accurate. Over eight months, however, it's plenty accurate and it shows literally zero job growth since March.

Maybe this is just some kind of weird fluke and it doesn't mean anything. But every month since March it's continued to show no employment growth. And the JOLTS hiring data turned downward at the same time:

So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I'm not sure I believe that.

17 thoughts on “How many new jobs have we created this year?

  1. jdubs

    If I remember correctly, we saw the opposite situation in late 2021 or early 2022 when household jobs greatly exceeded payroll jobs.

    This was also a sign that the economy was falling apart.

    It's always bad news.

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  2. skeptonomist

    Once again Kevin shows the rate of change instead of actual numbers. I think he is referring to this:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=X9Rn

    The Employment Level, from the Household Survey, is always higher by many millions. Someone who really wanted to investigate this would try to find out why there is such a large difference. But it's not clear off hand why the more restricted measure would be considered more important. I think the difference tends to bear out Kevin's point - the larger and presumably total employment has not been increasing.

  3. jdubs

    I believe that the higher number includes agricultural jobs and the self employed. The lower number excludes these groups.

    The number of self employed Americans increased by roughly 1+ million pre-covid to early 2022. Some of those people may be coming back into the job market. This would leave the household survey flat but increase the payroll survey.

  4. kaleberg

    You can only compare these measurements meaningfully to themselves. They are of necessity approximations and subject to all kinds of sampling artifacts but have an internal consistency. The real values, however we define them, are constantly changing and manifesting themselves in different ways. We're not measuring the speed of light in a vacuum, something universally invariant with a clear definition.

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