Today's inflation report was oddly mixed: Here are the overall numbers:
Both headline and core CPI were up sharply in November. That's not good news. But the odd part is how this breaks down:
The inflation rate in services, which is usually the most stubborn component, went down by a nice 1.6 percentage points. But nondurable goods, usually an inflation hero, skyrocketed up by 9.2 points.
I can't figure out what caused this. It wasn't food or gasoline, nor was it in major categories like education or health care. Clothing rose substantially, but that's not enough to have a big impact. But the good news is that inflation in nondurables is pretty volatile, so there's a good chance this is just a blip that will go away next month. We'll see.
On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline inflation came in at 2.7% and core inflation at 3.3%.
We need to get our roof replaced due to a leak and we were told by several contractors that the cots of roofing materials ha gone up 7% In Anticipation of Trump's tariffs
Everyone is so convinced inflation is coming, we've willed it into being early!
Whip Up Inflation Now! (WUIN?)
We've sat down and run a list of major purchases that we anticipate being impacted by tariffs and inflation and are deciding what we might want to pull forward. I imagine others are doing the same.
I've heard others talk about pulling forward purchases, and I've considered the same. I wonder if enough people will do that to actually impact economic numbers for December/January.
I assume you did that comment on your phone (although the one random capitalization is not likely phone thing), but this place does give you a couple minutes for fast editing.
But I wonder if this is real, or what the suppliers told them or something. Stock prices go with anticipation of what is going to happen because they are about the future, but probably real stuff not so much. But possible. And it seems that most asphalt shingles are made in the US and probably the components too.
OTOH there is a good chance that Donald will say the threat worked and call the whole tariff thing off.
I'm beginning to wonder just how much of these tariffs are actually going to take place. You need a Trump-English translator:
Beautiful Tariffs = Outstanding opportunities for graft
My expectation is that he's going to be bombarded with requests for exemptions, which will be granted based on how connected the requestor is or how much graft he can extract from them. In the end, most will pay up to get their exemptions.
Damn. That Trumpflation sucks. (If Republicans and centrist voters can think that the economy was godawful on November 5th and totally peachy on November 6th, I can proclaim that all inflation from November 6th is entirely Trump's fault.)
Did you accidentally switch from urban to all?
Most likely the rise in non-durables was caused by demand from importers/wholesalers and even some consumers stocking up before Trump tariffs supposedly kick in.
Yes, the demand side might be the major factor.
Meanwhile, spineless coward Chris Wray will resign in January.
I have no specific animosity nor admiration for Wray, but how is resigning on Jan 19th being a coward if Orange Il Duce is going to fire you on Jan 20th?
I read somewhere that Wray chose to resign because it will create a vacancy that Constitutionally can be filled only by an acting director who is qualified (i.e. experienced) or automatically replaced by the next in line in the FBI organization, for up to 90 days. This at least will insure that Trump's designee doesn't take power immediately.
He should stay so he can get fired? I’m OK with depriving the MAGAts of their celebration.
Republican Senators are showing their lack of spine, getting ready to approve the least qualified Cabinet picks in history.
I’m sure there will be more resignations/early retirements, from multiple departments.
Cabinet for his 2nd Reich will be a line up of criminally unqualified MAGA fanatics, drunken misogynist sexual predators, quack doctors, bat shit crazy conspiracy theorist, and Russian FSB assets.
I guess RFKJr is in the bat shit crazy classification, but his own special type. Maybe he will lead Republicans to passing stricter EU style food industry policies which is exactly the opposite of what they would do otherwise - it's MORE government regulation. Silver lining, if nothing compared to the potential damage elsewhere. Like polio.
There's gotta be something a bit off about the whole laying chickens population in the US having to have major %s of them killed a number of times in the past two years. You would think the industry would figure it out, but they are probably very stuck on having tens of thousands of genetically identical chickens crammed into giant barns or whatever money saving things they do. Regulation just might do them a favor.
More likely: only the terrible stuff he favors will result in legislation or policy changes.
Besides eliminating mandatory vaccinations required to attend public schools, they will have hydrogenated palm oil classified as a vegetable for school lunch programs and have raw milk in school cafeterias.
RFK Jr. is batshit insane, but he also falls into the misogynist sexual predator category.
Trumpcession and Trumpflation
Its now Trump and MAGA GOP's problem, which I am sure they have a multitude of viable solutions, that a majority of American's apparently voted for and want.
Can't fucking wait.
et voilà, precisely the secondary price pressure transmission and rebound risk that Central Bank policy boffins were concerned about, as like répétition of the early 70s secondary retransmission.
the naïve "trend line" is really quite the embarrassment as is the naive and overly simplistic "transitory" "only covid" story.
in future rather the poopooing inflation the Democrats would be much better served to be social Democrats but inflation hawks, else you are condemned to relearn the lesson of every populist loose money fraction (left or right) - inflationary bursts are utter political toxin.
My Econ degree is not enough to have any idea what most of that means. I did learn that "répétition" needs those two apostrophe right over the letter things I didn't even know we used, but then I wasn't an English major.
Lounsbury only pretends to be an economists to beat the liberals on the internet. He says literally the same thing in every thread, it doesn't matter what the stats or facts are. He has a line to deliver and he does it over and over and over.
7% of GDP deficits aren’t helping.
Given the still solid employment, economic growth and wage growth along with mid 2's inflation and few expectations of rising interest rates.....I would say that the deficits are doing a fine job.
A great job.
There is absolutely nothing concerning about a CPI number in the mid 2's. This is literally the target for the Fed. Roughly 2% PCE translates to roughly mid 2's% CPI.
Around a 2.7% CPI rate is what we experienced from the early 1990s through early 2010's. The ultra low inflation that was associated with the dreadfully slow economic recovery following the 2009 recession is not something the Fed is targeting and it shouldn't be our expectation.
This is a perfectly fine number. There is nothing interesting or worrisome here.