I've been waiting for some good news on the supply chain crisis, and today I got it:
When, after months of making up reasons why a problem is temporary, people finally break down and say that it's permanent after all, it's often a sign that the problem is actually close to getting resolved. Will that be the case this time? I don't know! But I'm hopeful.
If you don't know how things are supposed to work, you get to right a lot of articles on how x or y or z must be problems.
The bottlenecks are real, and may be the worst people have ever seen. But it might also be true that it's a two week backlog at the ports. Yes, certain items have major problems, but others, not so much Some of that is because those who can pay to cut in line are paying to cut in line...or is that always the case?
Goods manufactured in countries that have a zero COVID protocol in place are at the mercy of the disease - like China
But if we are talking computer chips demand has simply outpaced supply for the last 2 years.
But the CV crisis is causing some "down stream" problems no one thought of and that is that the fear of getting CV is driving people out of our work force. So yes some problems may be permanent.
But if you believe CV will get to the point of being endemic or just like the flu requiring only an annual shot then you believe it is short lived. The problem is we have seen the drop off of cases before back in Jan. Delta and + changed all of that
Krugman had a good column on this so-called "supply chain problem" a couple of days ago. I thought he was oversimplifying a situation that has a lot of complexity, but I think his bottom line is pretty sound--when you overload a system it tends to bog down for a while, then work its way back to a new steady-state.
Patience is not Americans' strong suit.
Yeah, this is my take also, from a super zoomed out level. The new equilibrium might be in a different place, but we'll get back to a place where things flow predictably again. It'll just take a little while.
Axl Rose has entered the chat.
Speaking of the supply chain, let's not forget the move to Just-In-Time manufacturing, where instead of making all your own parts or having warehouses filled with the various components, you order stuff and it arrives at the assembly lines just as it's needed.
Throw a wrench into the works at any point, and the whole thing breaks down.
Southwest Airlines has been experiencing an analogous problem with its point-to-point multi-destination flight methods. Touted as more efficient than the hub&spoke way the other airlines do it, once something along the chain breaks, the disruption spreads and is harder to get back on track, because the planes and pilots are spread out all over the country (and beyond!), instead of stacking up and on call at the hub.
Salamander-
Said the same on another post
The exception is the shortage of computer chips.
They have a supply chain problem with them stretching back for at least 2 years