In an aside to a longer post, Charlie Stross says:
It should be noted that Donbass has the second largest gas reserves in Europe: this is economically as much an oil/gas war as was the Iraq war before it.
I did not know that! However, although this is technically true, there are some caveats. First, Ukraine might be second in Europe (behind Norway) but it's 26th in the world and has only about 2-3% the level of Russian reserves. Is that really enough for Russia to care much about?
Second, gas production in the Donbass has declined substantially from its peak in the 1970s and has been flat for decades even though production is far lower than consumption, which forces Ukraine to import huge amounts of natural gas. This is because most of its untapped reserves are hard to access.
That said, the Donbass does have substantial reserves of natural gas in addition to lots of other mineral wealth (coal, lithium, uranium, etc.). The USSR sure cared about all this stuff back in the day, so it makes sense that Russia still cares about it now even if it's not the proximate cause of their invasion.
Also gas and oil fields in the Black Sea,
https://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/10/black-sea-gas-deposits-an-overlooked-reason-for-russias-occupation-of-crimea/
And fracking has yet to be employed.
I saw this somewhere else yesterday. Methinks it is about Russia acquiring a land bridge to Crimea.
Indeed, Putin launching this war (and particularly his initial maximilist invasion) does not fit "gas" - it does fit Great Russian Nationalist Imperialist dreams, but not gas.
Yep. He’s re-forming Greater Russia acre by acre.
I guarantee you there's plenty of gas reserves in Russia, even ones that haven't been discovered yet, which makes sacrificing 17,000 Russian soldiers for Ukraine's piddling amount a moot point. This war is about so much more than natural resources.
I read, I think it was in that Kamil Galeev thread, that Russia is running low on easily accessible gas and oil reserves and what they have undeveloped are all in the Arctic ocean which may be beyond their capability.
And I am agreeing otherwise that's a secondary interest to the primary motive of enraptured nationalism in the circumstance, which is true blind madness.
Day in the life of Vladimir Putin's lizard washer,
https://old.reddit.com/r/maybemaybemaybe/comments/tufhfz/maybe_maybe_maybe/
That region is also Ukraine's manufacturing hub if I recall correctly.
Soviet Union's, not Ukraine's.
Peoole really need to stop trying to impose a sober logical analysis on something that is illogical.
Rather, people should stop imposing sober logical analysis from their own perspective.
Putin's Great Russian agenda has it's own logic, and internal agenda.
Pretending to analyse Putin's agenda from one's own is simply navel gazing.
Also a good way to put it, but whether it follows the Nova Russia ideal or not, he still miscalculated. And the Russians sure as hell have conducted the war illogically for the first 5 weeks since the Ukranians are now even more angry and less likely to back down at all.
What Putin is doing right now is gambling. It might work out for him but it's still a gamble.
Putin is entitled to his own thoughts, but not his own reality. And reality has dealt setbacks to every rationale stated by Putin or ascribed to him by others: Ukraine’s resolve to be independent has strengthened; NATO has unified, and is positioning more forces in bordering nations; Russia’s biggest customers are turning to alternate suppliers; its suppliers of important technology, financial services, and manufactured goods are cutting it off; Western businesses not subject to sanctions are nevertheless abandoning Russia; its once-feared military has been exposed as incompetent. If it is all about gas, the war is speeding the global transition away from fossil fuels. Whatever his agenda, it has been wrecked.
I could have sworn this topic was covered in 2014. Oh yeah, it was -- https://bityl.co/BbKj
Thanks for sharing that article!
The admixture of hydrocarbon resources with geopolitical ethnomysticism is a self-reinforcing hyperloop, nearly impossible to disaggregate. Mere human contrivances like national borders, and the existence and opinions of mere human beings who happen to live on the wrong side of them, are nothing compared to the power of these 19th century opium dreams.
Except that the Ukraine war is not just about Donbass. It's also about control of gas fields in the Black Sea and greater control of gas pipelines that go through the Donbass.
The big suck here is that people still think they will be able to exploit the oil and gas. Doesn't bode well for humanity surviving into the 22nd century.
Humanity is not going extinct due to global warming.
Modern industrial civilisation maybe although more likely rather result is mass immiseration rather than collapse.
Altoid has said it best above...but nevertheless, Kevin is wrongo...this is about one man's insanity...this war can be over instantly if Mr Putin would simply withdraw his Russian soldiers for the land of another sovereign country...easy-peasy, there is nothing complex or even difficult in solving this ongoing disaster.
People need not over think this...just withdraw the mis-placed troops, say oops and walk home.
Traveller
Ultimately until the meta-argument is decided, this argument cannot be decided.
Why do countries go to war?
There was a time when the answer was honor (eg the Illiad).
There was a time when the answer was belief systems (eg Islamic conquests)
There was a time when the answer was nationalism and self-determination (eg Greek War of Independence)
In our time the answer is economics.
Now you can resolve this in various ways.
You can insist there is one true, eternal reason for wars and fit everything into that. The nationalists have been happy to do that across all of history, likewise the marxists.
Or you can why those who started the war believed they were doing what they were doing, and perhaps you may get a single answer.
But mostly I think answers like this, especially when they are always the same answer, tell us more about the answerer than the conflict. To insist that Ukraine is about gas is less about Ukraine and more about insisting that the world is driven primarily by economic forces (ie vulgar marxism) rather than by personality or by beliefs. It will seem convincing to other vulgar marxists, and puerile to anyone who does not hold to that belief system.
Putin learned goalposts relocation from the Altlefties & Altrighties he bankrolled from 2007-present.
Once the Citizens United case was decided, the cake was baked.
I love that you follow Charlie Stross, you giant nerd. He's one of my favorite scifi authors.