The Guardian today has a piece about Allan Lichtman's famous "13 keys" to winning the White House, which have a strong record of predicting the eventual winner. The party in the White House has to lose six of them to get voted out, so let's play along. Here are the 13 keys along with my judgment for each of them:
- NO (22 seats less). Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- YES. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- YES. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- YES. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- YES. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- YES (2.4% vs. 1.6%). Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- YES. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- YES. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- YES. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- ???. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- NO. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- NO. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- NO. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
As Lichtman points out, many of his keys are judgment calls. For example, do the Gaza protests count as "sustained social unrest"? I'd say no. Nor do I think RFK Jr. is a "major" third-party candidate. And I can't make a call at all on "foreign/military failure." I don't think the Afghanistan withdrawal was a failure, but lots of people disagree.
Anyway, by my count Biden loses only four of the keys—five at most. So he should be a winner in November. Lichtman himself will make his own prediction in the summer.
"For example, do the Gaza protests count as "sustained social unrest"? I'd say no."
But you, or I, don't get to decide.
The Chicago Police Department will decide who wins the election. And they have form, as the British detective shows say.
It will unfortunately come down to who counts the votes in the borderline states. It doesn’t look good at this time. Trump has no ethics. Doesn’t give a damn about an accurate count or democracy.
He and his minions will be out in force on Election Day. And the misinformation instantly distributed will confuse the issue. And as we saw yesterday this Supreme Court is compromised.
Foreign/military success: Yes
1. We are out of Afghanistan. Obama and Trump failed to accomplish this.
2. Ukraine crisis handled exceptionally adroitly. Superb coalition management.
3. Gaza War. Not so good I'll give it a C.
Two out of three makes a Yes.
Shouldn't we be trumpeting Afghanistan? OK, it was messy, but we are out of a forever war!
Ironically, Trump and Biden kind of agreed on Afghanistan, that we ought to be out of there. Trump concluded an agreement with the Taliban to basically do that and had he been re-elected probably would have pretty much did what Biden did.
So the MAGAites who are criticizing Biden for this are kind of acting out of ignorance. Again.
And the reason it's considered "messy" is that the withdrawal went against the consensus of the foreign policy blob. They figured Biden would just negate Trump's bargain and maintain the occupancy because we can't admit failure. Just one more Friedman unit and victory will be ours!
It's going to be too damn close, and in my opinion, it wouldn't have needed to be if we had a stronger and younger Dem candidate. But a close election generates lots of worry and campaign contributions, so I understand why its happening. Although I hope Lichtman's system turns out to be right, I take it with a grain of salt.
I take Nate Silver more seriously. Today, he writes that the supposed youth vote for Biden is a mirage.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-confuse-the-views-of-attention
"A tsunami of young voters going to the polls? No. In fact, that’s complete bullshit. This story from Business Insider, and others like it, are fake news. The premise that young voters flocked to the polls is a lie."
Who is this younger and stronger Dem who could easily win? Because I don't see anyone obvious. There were younger Dems running in 2020, and Biden beat them. The only post-2020 name I can come up with is Whitmer, who has had significant media attention, and there are a couple of polls that tried her against Trump. She was the loser. Maybe that would be different if she were the actual candidate, but that's not based on any factual evidence.
Zaphod just wishes Biden were younger, but not hard enough to have put in the legwork to try to put some candidate they like better into the position of getting the nomination (Zaphod isn't even willing to put in the legwork to even name any such candidate).
I suspect that Zaphod's real game--whether or not they admit it, even to themself--is to simply salt the record with enough whinging about "Biden2old!" such that, if Biden loses, Zaphod will have the pointless consolation of feeling like he told us so.
I suspect that Zaphod's real game--whether or not they admit it, even to themself
Geez, you have put me in a no-win situation. No matter what I say, it is because I can't admit something even to myself.
Let me be perfectly clear. (something Joe Biden might say). In this two-man race, I will vote for Biden and want him to win. Because of his unwise decision to run again, I will not send him any money.
If Biden had withdrawn and made it clear that the eventual nominee had his full support, and was free to run on his record, that someone would have had time to make him or herself known to the general public. And would probably be 10 points ahead of Trump by this point.
But that is water over the dam at this point. If Biden loses, he and the Democratic Party will have much to answer for.
Let me be perfectly clear. (something Joe Biden might say). In this two-man race, I will vote for Biden and want him to win. Because of his unwise decision to run again, I will not send him any money.
Wait, you have the means to contribute to the campaign of the Democratic nominee, but you want to refrain from doing so—thus taking an action to make his victory less likely, however incrementally so—but you refuse to do so because reasons?
Sure, you want Biden to win. And I want the IRS to notify me I'm being audited.
I suspect that Zaphod's real game...is to simply salt the record with enough whinging about "Biden2old!" such that, if Biden loses, Zaphod will have the pointless consolation of feeling like he told us so.
Nailed it.
Nope. Saying "I told you so" is of absolutely no interest to me.
However, severely criticizing Biden and the Democratic Party for their roles in subjecting us to another Trump presidency is what I'll do.
Hopefully Biden wins, and I breathe a sigh of relief.
Biden has not even replied to my messages to him about the wisdom of his running again? He can do without my advice, then he can do without my money, too.
Johnny Unbeatable of course. If only the oldsters guarding the party walls would let him rise up, Americans of all stripes and colors would vote for him.
There has not been an election in living memory in which the incumbent was alive and didn't run for a second term. Not really sure why Zaphod thinks it'll happen anytime soon.
LBJ in 1968 (though you will probably argue that was for a prospective third term and not a second term).
LBJ did run for a second term. He just aborted his campaign in the early going because he could read the handwriting on the wall.
Whitmer has been impressive in Michigan, but a) there's still a lot of resistance among ordinary, and particularly older, voters to women for the top job, and b) Whitmer is the governor who closed down the churches during covid. I think b) is her big hidden weakness and would be fatal to her chances this year and maybe in 2028 too; hell, maybe forever. It upset not only evangelicals and charismatics, but also lots of people a little to the right of the mainline sects who could persuade themselves to vote D or stay home, but wouldn't vote for her while the memory is still fresh.
There were younger Dems running in 2020, and Biden beat them.
And moreover Biden was beating all of them in 2023-2024 polls, too, including an advantage over Kamala Harris, a candidate who—and this is something Zaphod never fails to ignore—would certainly possess a very hefty advantage in a nomination fight. (I'm not saying she'd be guaranteed a win, but, yeah, she's certainly be favored). Also, Joe possesses an automatic, inarguable advantage over any other possible nominee in terms of vetting. Lots of candidates look fine on paper until they step on the national stage. Paging Ron DeSantis and Michael Dukakis!
Re. young voters, oh my . . . pulled in several directions while their brains are still developing and, for many, their news comes from social media algorithms designed to mess us all up and make complicated things seem simple. I just hope that women's reproductive freedom + climate emergency > excruciating geopolitical realities for most American voters, including the young ones.
Biden should be considered a national hero for beating Donnie.
Biden made the 2021 transition look easy following the coup attempt, which is one reason why it succeeded, but it was no doubt much trickier than he let on.
If Biden wins, even decisively, we won't necessarily be in the clear. I fully expect Dump to claim victory even if all the networks (as they did in 2020) declare Biden the winner. I don't even want to think about what the MAGAts would do then; having to experience the "Stop the Steal" mishegas again would be the least of our problems.
Baby steps. Let's just win the election OK, and then worry about what all the MAGAts are going to do to throw poo all over everything, shall we? I mean, catastrophizing about every possible countermove the Shitgibbon and his legions of mindless zombies will do after the election is kind of pointless for everyone who isn't on a police/military force or in elected office already. There's nothing to do about babies pitching a tantrum in the middle of every store in America, which is why you frequently can find babies doing so. The rest of us just have to carry on and live our lives through it.
He will be like a shark without teeth, since Il Duce and his band of traitors will not be in control of the federal government, DOJ, FBI, the national guard, and the military this time. He can scream all he wants, set his minions of morons marching through the streets, and his new band of scum bag lawyers mucking around looking for non existent evidence of voter fraud and filing pounds of bullshit lawsuits.
This only matters if Biden wins. If he looses, and concedes like a patriot, then it doesn't really matter. We are all fucked.
and even if Biden wins, Trump will be back in 2028 to try again, and that time the Dems won't have the incumbency advantage (unless something happens and we have a President Harris).
Of course he will be as old as Biden is now.
Trump will be back in 2028 to try again
That's the main importance of the criminal trials: 2028.
It's long been apparent Trumps legal problems will have little effect on this year's election: juries aren't going to save our democracy's bacon in November. But 2025 and 2026 may well see Donnie, uh, going through some things. I personally think it's very unlikely if Trump loses this year he'll be the nominee in 2028. For one thing he's suffering from dementia in the here and now. His brain will be beyond help in four years. For another, there's the aforementioned legal peril. And there's this: although this trend (one that I perceive, in any event) materialized too late to stop his getting the nomination in 2024, for those who look carefully enough, Trump's influence on the GOP appears to be waning. Maybe even in free fall. Nikki Haley continues to pick up double digit primary shares weeks after she officially quit the race. And many, many Republicans in Congress just bucked TFG on two of his major priorities (Ukraine aid and TikTok).
Like a lot of trends, the (finally! at long last!) weakening of Trump's hold on our politics is hard to spot in the early stages. It's like Scott Fitzgerald's line about bankruptcy: gradually, then all of a sudden.
If Biden wins, even decisively, we won't necessarily be in the clear.
I'm not at all confident about our polity's ability to award a legitimately won election to Joe Biden if it's close, even given the election reform legislation signed into law by this president.
But if it's truly decisive by contemporary standards—say, Joe holds all his 2020 EC states and flips four others? I believe in that case Biden will take a second term oath in January.
For #8, I think MAGA counts as social unrest.
It's a mass movement against everything that isn't themselves, and to establish their right to kill anyone who disagrees with them.
I have found Lichtman’s list to be pedantic. It is one of those things that’s always right until it isn’t (and he missed in 2000 and 2016). As I have posted before, each election is sui generis and as people and technology change it become even more so. With that said I will give my prediction: Michigan. Whoever carries Michigan wins the election.
Are you a Michigan voter? I am. We have much work to do . . .
I’m not. I see that Biden carried the state by almost 3% in 2020. Since Biden carried the country by 4.5, it means national polls are a good Michigan predictor. The Gaza situation is having a negative impact and some Arab voters may leak to RFK Jr because of it. I hope Gretchen mobilizes her machine since she is popular. At least I see Biden spending a lot of time and money there since he obviously knows the situation (unlike Hillary). If I were Biden, I would ask the governor what infrastructure projects need to support and work with unions on auto issues and the black community over lead pipe issues. As to the Arab vote, Biden is going to have to give them something (expedited green cards?). Michigan should vote and probably will vote for Biden, but like you said, it will take work.
Lichtman didn't miss in 2016. Read the article again.
I stand corrected.
Lichtman didn't miss in 2016. Read the article again.
He claims he didn't miss in 2000, either, and I think he's got a strong argument. He maintains that election was stolen. I agree.
I am strongly inclined to disagree on this point:
“NO. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.”
The recently passed aid package for Ukraine arguably disputes this assertion. That package is indeed part of a “major success in foreign or military affairs.”
Consider: Ukraine is still an independent country, Russia has suffered decimating losses in life and armed capacity at very little cost to America, Biden continues to promote a successful international coalition in Ukraine’s defense, and the recent aid package helps legitimate a bipartisan American endorsement of both Ukraine and Biden’s policy.
The passage of that aid package is arguably the most consequential event in the world this year (other than the American Presidential election). If papers like the NYT were not, by their own admission, hopelessly biased against Biden, they would probably be singing his praises. And he would deserve it.
But if aid had faltered and Ukraine fell this year: that would have marked a clear failure of the Biden admin. Instead, Biden has scored a massive foreign military victory in supporting Ukraine and bleeding Putin’s Russia dry.
If you'd read the reputable analysts I do.... Ukraine is hanging by a thread.
Recently the battered 47th Mech Brigade the "NATO brigade" was rotated out for rest. Their replacements either never showed or ran. Russia discovered this and launched a major assault. 47th exhausted and weak turned and rushed back to fight. 100th brigade an experienced but lightly armed infantry brigade hit the flanks. The 100th was badly mauled. Together they held the line.
Had they not stopped RU, Russia would have shattered the UA line and ripped them a new asshole as they poured through the gap.
And RU grows stronger.
UA is absolutely a massive foreign policy failure of Biden and the west thanks to their screw ups. Ukraine also has failures they have not managed to fix.
The BEST CASE SCENARIO for UA is to hold off this summer's Russian Offensive and find a way to launch their own in summer 2025 that actually works unlike 2023's failure.
@Special Newb:
I realize there are many on the Left who will never acknowledge that America has ever done or will ever do anything good. And I can’t quite tell if you fall into the infamous “tankie” category, but this is still a spectacular own goal:
“UA is absolutely a massive foreign policy failure of Biden and the west thanks to their screw ups.”
In what I like to call reality, Biden’s coordination of Ukraine’s international support may be the most impressive and consequential feat of American foreign policy thus far in the 21st century.
And as Ukraine continues to fight off an unprovoked invasion from an evil ruler intent on imposing his authoritarian will over tens of millions of Ukrainians, our support to the people of Ukraine is something to be genuinely proud of.
My friend I have worked with NAFO.
Biden did fantastic pre-war and first few months. And then failed.
Weapon systems had to dragged out him repeatedly, imaginary fears of Russian nuclear strikes achieved primacy over Ukranian victory, forbidding strikes into Russia, he failed to pass a massive supplemental in lame duck, he failed to counter RU efforts in the 3rd world and now they are all neutral or pro Russia, he has moved at a beyond glacial pace to tighten Russian sanctions enabling much more smuggling of critical war material to Russia, he has not made improvements to mechanical support for donated gear or NATO training of Ukrainians with the result UA has to ship 800+ niles round trip to repair most gear and NATO training is outdated or unsuited for the actual training. He has continued the painfully slow rebuilding of the US production industry. He has failed to develop any plan for UA victory as opposed to UA defense.
Meanwhile China is shipping a great deal of technical help to Russia to rebuild their war machine. Things like machine tools and gun-cotton (nitrocellulose) of which China is the biggest global supplier and that is now closed to the west. Russia is adding 40k men a month. Is producing more jets than it is losing and is beggining to up production of vehicles as well as improving their survivability by adding reaction armor to their IFVs.
In short, Biden feared Ukrainian victory and allowed Russia to ramp up. In the process the US is now revealed to be too internally broken to be relied on by allies which will have disastrous effects. Not as bad as a Ukrainian defeat which must be prevented at all costs but still bad.
I am the fucking opposite of tankie.
If you'd read the reputable analysts I do.... Ukraine is hanging by a thread.
If you had asked most people—including those with considerable expertise on military matters—what would happen if Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, most would reply: "Ukraine would be quickly crushed."
And yet here we are more than two years later and Putin is still mired in a quagmire, and he's taken over 100,000 casualties.
We're far from seeing a "win" for Ukraine, sure, but I think it's a win for Joe Biden in that he's been instrumental in ensuring that Russia pays a very high price for its adventurism, and might yet be forced into a humiliating settlement. This summer will obviously be a critical period, but I predict badly falling morale for Putin's forces if—having gotten so tantalizingly close to victory—renewed Western resolve translates into more setbacks for Moscow in the months ahead.
Russians don't need much morale. This was always the Soviet strategy for countering nato (NATO is stronger than us, but our guys can endure much more). It's been shown viable in this war imo as the mobiks fought stupid but hard and now Russia is better at training and equipping them.
This summer is going to be a massive RU offensive (100k-200k projected right now). There may also be a Russian winter offensive in 24/25. If Ukraine can hold those off and come up with a way to get through Russian defenses, they may be able to attack summer 2025.
Russians don't need much morale. This was always the Soviet strategy for countering nato
No. The Soviet strategy against NATO was huge-in-scale numerical superiority. No one at the time though a full scale Warsaw Pact invasion could be held off for more than a few days without the use of nuclear weapons, which is why the core NATO strategy against the USSR was nuclear deterrence (ie, attacking West Germany means nuclear war with America, so you'd better not do it). By the 1970s, it had become abundantly clear that US forces in Europe were but a nuclear trip wire.
And lack of morale most certainly did come into play for Russia after it invaded Afghanistan.
"Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign."
The catch is that while the economy is in recession, it is not seen to be in good shape, mainly because of price hikes due to inflation. Even though inflation is on the downturn, the price hikes are likely here to stay, and it's probably going to be awhile before they're just considered just a new normal.
I believe these various “keys” are based on historical analysis: what factors have been at work when candidates did or did not win the Presidency. And recessions are one of those factors that appear to influence the outcome. Price hikes, apparently, are not.
it is not seen to be in good shape, mainly because of price hikes due to inflation.
The economy is seen by "some" as not in good shape. And by many others as strong. And in any event inflation isn't covered in Lichtman's "Thirteen Keys." Maybe that's a weakness of his test, but it has a very good track record.
Also, whatever inflation was doing in 2021 and 2022, it's currently puttering along at around 3%. That's a bit higher than in the previous decade, but hardly a disaster.
Anyway, by my count Biden loses only four of the keys
By my count he loses on only three. I give Joe a "yes" on foreign policy success and a "no" on social unrest. Gaza protests seem to have reached the stage of genuine social unrest in my view.
But not regularly losing Americans to combat deaths in Afghanistan is a win for Joe, even if the pullout itself is a political failure (it should not be viewed as such—casualties were remarkably light—but I don't run the media).
So "no" on 1, 8 and 10.
It's possible Kennedy could emerge as another "no," but at this stage his candidacy is looking decidedly fringe.
Trump will lose because nothing he is doing is getting him any new votes. He has his 35-40% from MAGA types who are never going to vote for Biden, but that’s not enough.
And the trials, finished or not, are driving him crazier and unable to recover his balance. He absolutely needs the adulation of his people above all, and it is paralyzing him from breaking through his MAGA ceiling.
The trials are likely to continue through the summer. He’ll be sitting in courtrooms going nuts. His federalist society judges might well let him push convictions past the election, but the trials are doing their work on his psyche regardless.
Absent a health crisis for Biden, he’ll win reelection.
"Trump will lose because nothing he is doing is getting him any new votes. He has his 35-40% from MAGA types who are never going to vote for Biden, but that’s not enough."
This talking point bewilders me. So what? Biden has lost much more. It depends on whether Biden can win these votes back or pick up new ones.
Sure let's do the keys
1 Trump
2 Biden
3 Biden
4 Trump
5 Biden
6 Biden
7 Biden
8 Trump
9 Biden
10 Trump
11 Trump
12 Trump
13 Trump
7 Trump 6 Biden for now.
Which fits the polls.
All imo